Calling the NASDAQ Bottom

I‘ve had a question through e-mail about my Fibonacci retracement charts and how they were late to calling the bottom of the NASDAQ market. That is fine because I don’t need to spot the “exact” bottom of a market, I just need to spot the reversal and hop on. Those of you that follow MSW and this blog on a weekly basis do know that one of my strongest talents is nailing market reversals when they happen because it’s something I have done for years while investing in CANSLIM type stocks.

So, I invite everyone to visit this post titled: Déjà vu on the NASDAQ? posted up on Wednesday, July 26, 2006 and determine for yourself if I did see the bottom developing.

Here is some of the text from that blog entry and the chart I posted almost three months ago (July 26, 2006) and an updated chart from my annotated stockcharts file:

7/26/06: “As I was researching my archives on MSW (the archives from 2004 and 2005 are open to everyone) I found some interesting data that correlates the NASDAQ in 2004 and 2006. So far in 2006, we have had 15 down weeks and 14 up weeks. At this time in 2004, we had 19 down weeks and 10 up weeks and the NASDAQ was at a nine month low (very similar to now as we are near 10 month lows). In 2004, my daily and weekly screens started to turn south on May 9th; in 2006, they started to turn south on May 15th (about the same time).

If you look at the two charts presented in this blog entry, you will notice how the market started to weaken in May and June and with a bottom near the end of July into early August. This summer is not over but I am wondering if the pattern will turn out to be similar to the one from 2004. The old saying: “sell in May and go away” has held up over the past couple of year with opportunities resenting themselves during the fall (towards the end of October).

Several of things I was saying back in 2004 are very similar to what I have been saying over the past two months. The similarities are amazing and the current NASDAQ chart may be forming a pattern that could take a similar route as it did in August of 2004. Only time will tell but history repeats and traders are always learning from history.

NOTE: when I say history repeats; I am not saying that it repeats exactly but the charts do resemble similar formations and seasoned traders and investors can capitalize on these situations.”

Click the link for the rest of the post! Déjà vu on the NASDAQ?
Piranha

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NASDAQ followed the Fibonacci Levels

While doing my research this week, I really highlighted how the NASDAQ weekly chart has briefly stalled for one week at each of the three Fibonacci retracement levels. I have been covering the chart since mid-August here on the blog as the index has continued to push higher and stall briefly at the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% levels. With the next recognizable level at 100%, the index has moved higher for three consecutive weeks without a stall.

Is this coincidence or is this human nature in action?

I have highlighted the three brief resistance weeks in color while the NASDAQ regrouped before moving higher. It’s an interesting chart that shows how the market corrected at each level on lower volume than the previous week which gave us a clue that the NASDAQ wanted to move higher.

Let’s wait and see what will happen when it reaches the 100% level. Will this be the final push higher and the first major signal of a market reversal?

I covered the chart on the blog in these posts as it materialized in real-time:

8/16/06:
NASDAQ looking for Retracements

8/17/06:
NASDAQ creating Trading Opportunities

8/24/06:
Using Fibonacci Retracements

8/31/06:
Current Market Temperature

9/15/06:
Weekly Market Review

10/04/06:
Talking Heads at it Again!

Piranha

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Am I a Stock Picker?

I’m a little late to this party but I was reading the blogs debating the issue of posting stock picks and not posting stock picks. My thoughts on the subject tend to agree and disagree with some of the points and comments on those blogs but I can only explain what I do.

Here were the original blogs to debate the subject:

Taz Trader Blog: 6 Reasons Why There Are No Stock Picks

FallondStockPicks.com: Why stock selection *is* important

I write this Market Talk with Piranha blog as an add-on to my main equity research site MarketStockWatch.com. I don’t provide “stock picks” at MSW but I do supply my members with daily and weekly screens and an MSW Index. Maybe I am taking the easy way out but my screens are designed to do the actual research work for investors that don’t have the time to compile the research or some members that are just learning to invest. I integrate specific screens with educational aspects that I have learned while trading my own accounts. I do list individual stocks and I place pivot points, entry areas and sell stop areas but I don’t highlight specific stock picks for them to buy (that is up to each individual investor). One of my main goals is to teach novice investors how to develop their own method of screens by using some of the things I currently do. This will enable them to invest for themselves for the rest of their life and become their own “stock pickers”.

A typical daily screen may contain anywhere from 5 to 20 stocks in one night that meets the criteria of the screen. A couple of my favorite and most successful screens for finding winners is “Interesting Stocks making New Highs” and “Strong Stocks within 15% of a New High”. I run several computerized fundamental screeners to narrow down approximately 7,000 stocks to about 100 candidates and then perform the technical analysis. My service derived from the actual research I performed for myself each night when trading my own account using a modified CANSLIM approach. I shared this research on a weekly basis for a couple years on several free internet forums and then decided to format it and charge a fee for doing all the tedious work (after the idea was given to me by a reader). I trade and we all know that trader’s income isn’t consistent so a research service made complete sense since the work was already done each night for me. I am also an entrepreneur so the idea of an additional income stream made complete sense for me and my family and I did not feel selfish for charging a price. I perform work while filling a niche and I do expect to be paid as long as it benefits the people using it. They wouldn’t pay me if it didn’t benefit them and I would close shop if the service was no longer in demand.

However, I am seriously considering moving to a free platform in 2007 while using advertisements in the form of Google Adsense and the like to cover my expenses and time for formatting my research. This would eliminate charging members and would allow me to expose my work (which I feel is excellent) to a wider audience. Over 600 people have signed-up for MSW since officially opening in January 2005 and I am extremely proud of the fact that I created this business from thin air. Whether I charge membership fees or post up my work for everyone, I don’tmake specific stock picks for anyone. I give them research based on a set of criteria that includes fundamental and technical analysis.

Essentially, I make stock picks each night but its’ up to each individual member and investor to make their own choices based on the stocks presented. I will not and do not form an opinion or bias towards any one stock (at least I try). Members ask me questions and I tell them what I see based on my own beliefs about the market. One of the most important rules I teach to my community is the use of money management rules and the fact that many of the trades they put on will actually be losers. I do have a section titled “All-star stocks” to help promote the service (it is a business) but that by no means indicates that I only screen winners. I always admit when I am wrong and eliminate losers on a monthly (and sometimes) weekly basis and explain why they are being removed. The toughest aspect to teach new investors is the fact that they will have to accept losers. This is by far the toughest idea for novice investors to comprehend and integrate into their system. By teaching position sizing techniques and expectancy, most people come to realize that it is okay to lose but you will always find a few people that want winners at all times and always want to be invested.

So, do I support stock picks?

What ever floats your boat! Do what you love to do and do what you feel help others. Some people like stock picks and some don’t. I like to provide researched screens that take both fundamental and technical criteria into consideration and I love the fact that every stock that ever makes one of my screens was studied by my own eyes on the charts.

My modified CANSLIM screening strategy can be found though this link:
Buying and Screening Strategy

I’ll attempt to teach you about investing and provide you with opportunities you wouldn’t otherwise find!

I guess I am a stock picker but I will never tell you what to buy or sell.

Piranha

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Can CANSLIM be Programmed?

What exactly is CANSLIM? And can it be mechanically programmed?

Here is the brief definition from their website:

C= Current earnings per share should be up 25% or more and in many cases accelerating in recent quarters. Quarterly sales should also be up 25% or more or accelerating over prior quarters.

A= Annual earnings should be up 25% or more in each of the last three years. Annual return on equity should be 17% or more.

N= A company should have a new product or service that’s fueling earnings growth. The stock should be emerging from a proper chart pattern and about to make a new high in price.

S= Supply and demand. Shares outstanding can be large or small, but trading volume should be big as the stock price increases.

L= Leader or laggard? Buy the leading stock in a leading industry. A stock’s Relative Price Strength Rating should be 80 or higher.

I= Institutional sponsorship should be increasing. Invest in stocks showing increasing ownership by mutual funds in recent quarters. IBD’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating gauges mutual fund activity in a stock.

M= The market indexes, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, should be in a confirmed up trend since three out of four stocks follow the market’s overall trend.

So, can this be programmed? Sure it can but I would urge some changes to fit exactly what you are looking for! Here is how I would simply break CANSLIM down to enter it into a mechanical system:

C= quarterly earnings 25%+ versus last quarter, sales should also be up 25%+ versus last quarter
A= Annual earnings 25%+ for three consecutive years, ROE must be 17%+
N= within 15% of new high
S= minimum daily trading volume is set to 40,000 shares*
L= RS rating of 80+
I= Increased institutional support along with net positive shares**
M= NH-NL ratio must be positive for longs (my criteria)

This can be programmed (of course itis still simplified)!

*Volume should exceed 150% average volume on breakout days and strong accumulation days (up-days)

**Just because more institutions own the stock doesn’t mean that the net number of shares bought versus sold was positive! Criteria can be set for this level (maybe you want an increase by 5% or 10%)

Piranha

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Exchange Stocks: ISE w/ ICE & BOT

Case Study
10/10/2006
ISE – International Securities Exchange Holdings Inc.

Industry: Financial Services

101006_ise_weekly.png

The company provides a fully electronic securities exchange for listed equity and index options. Sister stocks such as ICE, BOT and CME have been gaining strength over the past month as several of them are members on the MSW Index so I thought it would be a good time to write a case study and give them all the kiss of death (a joke of mine). I have had a history of writing case studies for stocks I own and cover that were performing nicely only to see them decline after the analysis. For example, I wrote a very detailed case study on BOT back in March (near the peak) which was uploaded to this blog earlier today. The stock corrected before rebounding over the summer and has recently blasted to new highs on above average volume. If all things hold true, this should be the top for ISE as I have just jinxed the beautiful cup shaped pattern.

Sister Stocks:
IntercontinentalExchange – ICE
Chicago Mercantile Exchange – CME (P/E: 48)
CBOT Holdings – BOT (P/E: 62)
Cash America Intl Inc. – CSH
First Marblehead Corp – FMD

Key Ratings:
Overall Rating in IBD: A+
EPS Rating: 95
Relative Price: 97
Industry Group Rank: 52 (of 197)

3-Year EPS Rate: 28%
3-Year Sales Rate: 24%

ROE: 26.53%
PEG: 1.87 (too high for my tastes!)
P/E: 36.3

EPS Analysis (yearly):
2002: 0.04
2003: 0.60
2004: 0.77
2005: 0.93
2006: 1.33 (estimate)
2007: 1.59 (estimate)

Revenue (in millions):
2002: 73.41
2003: 100.5
2004: 125.4
2005: 155.9

Net Income (in millions):
2002: 0.80
2003: 20.2
2004: 26.1
2005: 35.3

Pretax Income (in millions):
2002: 3.60
2003: 36.0
2004: 51.7
2005: 65.1

Cash (in millions):
2003: 92.9
2004: 171

Cash Flow (in millions):
2003: 21.6
2004: 30.1
2005: 41.4

Number of Institutions (last reporting period):
% Shares held by Institutions: 62%
Total Institutions: 295
Money Market: 114
Mutual Funds: 172
Other: 9

Top Institutional Holder: Bamco, Inc. (3.5 million shares) 0.02% of portfolio

101006_ice_weekly.png

Some of the fundamental causes for concern are the above average price earnings ratio versus the entire industry and the S&P 500 and the high price to book value which almost doubles the industry standard and triples the average on the S&P 500. The current price of the company must be considered a premium when compared to the industry and the market.

Does this matter?

According to William O’Neil, strong stocks must be bought at premiums just as luxury items in life are bought at premiums. Competition is moving in on the company as the profit margins are shrinking within the industry.

Moving to technical analysis, we can see that most of the stocks in the industry are moving higher and ISE is forming a beautiful cup shaped pattern that has formed over the past seven months. The top of the right side of the pattern should come to a close near $50-$52 and then form a handle in order to shake out weak holders. The 200-d m.a. has been acting as support while the right side of the base forms so look to this area as a fall-back zone if the stocks decides to correct.

101006_bot_weekly.png

Both ICE and BOT have moved on to new 52-weeks highs so ISE may be seen as the laggard but the base is great. As long as a handle forms and a pivot point is established, I will enter at the ideal time only if the “M” in CANSLIM is cooperating. The major indexes are extended so I am not sure if this will all come together at the proper time but it is a very interesting development to watch. The stock is already up over 15% in six weeks on the MSW Index so we can always take profits if things turn badly!

Piranha

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