I will start by saying that my poker expectancy may not be an exact science but it does give me a great idea of how I will perform next year when I play a similar number of games online (if the government allows ISP’s to allow players access to these sites). I personally play on PokerStars and only do it for fun as I enjoy the strategies and challenges each game presents. I’m primarily a low limit poker player because I don’t have the stomach of a gambler even with excellent odds on my side (sometimes luck does play a part). I play sit-and-go games online because they are short and sweet and the best players can typically make the money three out of every four games. In my case, I made the money 71% of the time in 2006 as I will explain in a second.

When I travel to Atlantic City or Las Vegas, I play $1-$2 no limit cash games because they offer low entry fees for potentially unlimited reward. I occasionally play cash games online but I have a better record playing sit-and-go tournaments with 9 players at a table.
I decided to keep statistics of every sit-and-go game in 2006 so I could develop expectancy similar to the one I have been keeping for my trading account.
I have played 174 games with a $10 + $1 entry fee to date.
Of those 174 games:
In total, I placed in the money 71% of the time.
Each game costs me $10 plus a $1 entry fee paid to the casino for a total of $11.
First place awards $45 (50%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $34.
Second place awards $27 (30%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $16.
Third place awards $18 (20%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $7.
My total account position varies because of the cash games but according to these notes, I made $1,155.00 in 2006 by playing $10 sit and go games. The breakout occurred like this (all fees have been subtracted from winnings):
PW is71%
AW is $13.75
PL is 29%
AL is $11.00
PW: Probability of Win
AW: Average Gain
PL: Probability of Losing
AL: Average Loss
If I play 15 games per month for each of the twelve months next year, I can expect to make approximately $1,182.60 with $10 sit and go games. My actual expectancy per game is $6.57.
So, for every game I play, I can expect to make $6.57 regardless of a win or loss and the size of the win. My goal is to increase the number of first and second place finishes by becoming more aggressive in the late stages of the game.
Interesting stuff if you ask me and I will keep you updated as I continue to play in 2007. I am looking to step up a level and play $20 + $2 games but the level of skill rises with each level so my expectancy is sure to change.
As long as you have data and a consistent way of playing the game (in this case with the odds of each hand), you can calculate an approximate expectancy that is sure to be accurate.






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