This will be quick but I swear that I have not looked at a stock quote in five days. I opened my account (now in Maui - flew in from Oahu last night) and saw that my Calpine shares are now up slightly more than 150%. Yes, 150%! I couldn’t believe that it moved from $2.20 to $3.20 since I left for Hawaii on Tuesday. Closed at $3.26 on Friday.

I knew someone was accumulating shares. If I take profits now, half my trip is paid but I am going to stay on for the ride. We’ll see if it continues.

I called for the stock to move from $1 ($0.97 in December) to $4-$6 based on a discussion with my hedge fund buddy (he gets most of the credit here). I would have never looked at Calpine if it weren’t for him. But I will take credit for buying after studying the price and volume action and determining that the story was telling us to jump in for an upward trend.

My former Calpine Blog Entries:

• My First Calpine Post at $0.97 on December 6, 2006
• Calpine Comeback on March 15, 2007
• Calpine Gets Bids on March 28, 2007

I am off to Hawaii so I will be away from the blog over the next two weeks although I know my timeshare has wireless internet and the laptop is going so we will see what happens!

I have updated some past market articles I wrote in 2005 and 2006 so I will look to quickly upload them over the next two weeks.

Aloha!

My Hawaii Stock
Continental Airlines Inc.
Monday’s Intra-day Price: CAL - $40.23

I wanted to research a Hawaii based company prior to leaving for my trip tomorrow but all I found was junk (in my opinion of course). So, instead of wasting my time, I decided to research my airline but must note that I don’t invest in this industry group due to multiple reasons that may be obvious to some. No need for a disclosure because I don’t own shares or plan to own shares in Continental Airlines or any of their competitors.

It’s the best I can do with the limited selection of Hawaiian companies that trade publicly. Here are a few I found but none of them were interesting to me:
ALEX, BRN, HA, HE, MLP, BOH

Next Earnings Date: 4/19/07
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Airlines

Analyst Stat: S&P has a 12-month target of $65 with a strong buy rating (5 stars)

Institutional Analysis:
Held by Institutions: 95%
Money Market: 286
Mutual Fund: 416
Other: 13

Top Holder: Capital Research and Management Company
4.65 mil Shares for < 0.01% of Portfolio
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $574.0 billion

Other Major Institutional Holders:
AXA, 4.40 mil shares
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd, 4.34 mil shares
Seminole Management Company, Inc., 4.3 mil shares
Atalanta/Aosnoff Capital LLC, 3.2 mil shares
JP Morgan Chase & Company, 3.01 mil shares
BlackRock Group Limited, 2.5 mil shares

Read more »

I was scheduled to participate in a stock trading contest with several market blogs but I withdrew at the last minute due to my trip to Hawaii the next two weeks.

However, I invite anyone that is interested to head on over to
Blain’s Stock Trading 101 to enter.

Blain has also invited several other blogs to participate so you can also join at their sites:

• Million Dollar Journey
• Derrich.com
• Money Matter and More Musings
• Clever Dude
• Investoid

What is the contest about?
This is a blog competition so enter your picks on the blog of your choice to allow that community to win.

To join, simply pick a stock that you think will increase the most next week ALONG WITH the predicted NASDAQ closing price on Friday April 13, 2007. Leave your answers in the comments of Blain’s post or another blog, and they will be tracked at Stock Trading 101.

There are 3 ways to win, you can have the best performing stock pick, the closest NASDAQ closing price, or the best overall community average (all of our community picks avg’d together). Know though your entry must be submitted by Sunday April 8th at 8:59 PM EST, no exceptions! Blain will go around and make a massive spreadsheet and get the first update up, so get those picks in today!

The Details

• The contest runs from Monday the 9th - Friday the 13th
• To enter simply submit via comment ONE stock pick (ticker), and what you think the Nasdaq will close at on Friday the 13th. All stock picks must be over $1 and can’t be pink sheets!
• All Entries must be in by Sunday April 8th, 8:59 PM EST
• It is one community versus the others (listed above), so you can’t submit entries on two communities, pick a side and support the fight!
• Three ways to win, top stock pick, closest Nasdaq close, or best overall community pick average.

Keep in mind: This is a short term contest so members from this community should target stocks that look ready to breakout or may have a major catalyst this week (such as earnings announcement, new product, new CEO, buyout, etc…). Good Luck

Follow these steps and you can create a powerful stock watch list in the matter of minutes to an hour each night. I work longer than that but it can be done in less time if need be. This watch list will generate opportunities for trend buying, swing trading and even shorter-term trading. I guess the occasional buy and hold investor could even benefit from this very simple procedure if they purchase at the right time.

I encourage all investors in all time frames to evaluate stocks for investment using both fundamental and technical analysis. A day trader and even a swing trader can get away with avoiding fundamental analysis but I highly recommend both methods of analysis for intermediate and longer term trend traders. Both tools are equally important in making serious decisions with your hard earned CASH!

If you wish to invest in stocks, treat it like a business, NOT A HOBBY. You need rules and you need to follow these rules or money WILL be LOST. Once proven rules have been established, they cannot be broke or you will lose money. Everyone loses money in investing but we must learn to cut losses quick and allow gains to develop. Small losses are acceptable because they teach us lessons that allow us to win big. Think of losses as part of doing business and focus on the long term success of the system and not each individual trade. As long as you have a positive expectancy, the winners and losers will equal out over time to make you consistently profitable.

Now to the watch list method:

• Determine if overall market is in a specific trend (up, down or sideways).
• Use a computerized screener to find stocks with superior fundamentals
• Evaluate sister stocks or stocks within the same industry group (strength travels in groups so the probability of success rises when buying into a strong industry).
• Study the technical aspects of the charts for each possible opportunity

Simple Fundamental Screener Criteria:
The criteria listed in this section can be used together or arranged in a variety of ways to generate multiple lists containing all possible opportunities. Get a feel for specific screens and determine which are the most successful during certain market conditions.

• Increasing Earnings (current, past: quarterly, yearly and future estimates)
• Increasing Sales (current, past: quarterly, yearly and future estimates)
• Stocks making New Highs
• Stocks within 15% of New Highs
• Stocks within 10% of the 200-day moving average
• Increasing Return on Equity (ROE)
• Price/Earnings Growth (PEG) – Less than 1 is preferable
• Accumulation/Distribution ratio
• Up/Down Volume over past several months
• Increasing Institutional Sponsorship

Simple Technical Analysis Scans (with your own eyes):

• Study the one year weekly chart (preferably candlesticks)
• Study the six month daily chart (preferably candlesticks)
• Look for increasing accumulation days (stock up on above average volume)
• Evaluate the Point & Figure chart for support and resistance levels
• Look for basic chart patterns such as flat bases, cup bases, saucer bases, triangle breakouts, obvious trends along a moving average, etc…

That is all one needs to develop a quality list of opportunities night in and night out. Trading opportunities will appear once you see a particular stock make multiple screens on a consistent basis. This is the basic foundation I use to pinpoint my opportunities in the market and the general guidelines I used while running MSW.

I use the custom screen wizard from Daily Graphs (Investor’s Business Daily sister company) for my fundamental analysis because I love CANSLIM type stocks but many tools exist on the web. Some are free and some cost a pretty penny to use. My screener costs $45 per month which is nothing to me but maybe too much for others.

Please leave a comment on what screener you use and why. Leave a link to the screener that you use to give the site or business credit. I am very curious to hear what other trader use. As great as the wizard is for me, I am always looking to find something better.