Comments on: JASO Price Target is Hit

By: Market Speculator

Market Speculator — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 13:22:08 +0000

you just have JASO held by a money market fund.

Ok, I was just trying to see how you trade a position.

By: piranha

piranha — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 12:41:58 +0000

Jason,
I own JASO and SMOD at this time. I would like to enter the other two but haven’t found the correct risk/reward setup.

Ryan,
Risk/reward is tough on young IPOs because the lack of technical analysis and fundamental data limits the “educated guess”. In this case with JASO, I used a swing method described in Stan Weinstein’s book. It gave me a target of $34 but I will say that much of it was an educated guess based ont he method. Nothing is set in stone (it’s an artful method). I have his book listed on my stock market book’s page. I am sure you can find a cheap copy on Amazon.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 02:40:53 +0000

Hi Chris,
Thank you for all the info on this site. I have been browsing it for about a month now and I have learned quite a bit. I have especially enjoyed your posts on expectancy and position sizing. One question I have is how do you estimate the reward aspect of the risk/reward ratio before you enter the trade? Was there a method you used to determine that the price target was $34 or was it an educated guess based on passed experience?

By: Jason

Jason — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 23:45:15 +0000

Congrat on your pick!!

Did you take positions on all four stocks you recommended?

By: piranha

piranha — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 22:41:31 +0000

I don’t have a money market account; not sure if I follow what you are saying. Did I type something that doesn’t make sense?

I didn’t sell but my stop is set. It is for my entire position. I’ll accumulate more shares in the future if the stock corrects or consolidates. My goal for this trade was $34 so I am not concerned with the longer term move. it was a short term swing trade. Not a longer term trend trade.

Hope this helps.

By: Market Speculator

Market Speculator — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 20:53:43 +0000

Curious as to how you have a Money Market fund owning stock…

Plus, did you sell into today’s move? And is your stop for all your shares or partial sell?

Seems to me, with a longer term high probability that this stock moves higher why you would lock in some gains now and have some left…rather than just (assuming) putting on a hard stop for 100% of your position?