Comments on: Don’t Believe the Hype! http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/ A blog about trading, finances, success and life itself Fri, 30 Dec 2011 14:18:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Two Months of Warnings http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13460 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Two Months of Warnings Thu, 16 Aug 2007 16:25:37 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13460 [...] Don’t Believe the Hype! August 7, 2007 Sorry to tell you but it was all Hype by the media, including my favorite: IBD! “IBD states that the recent market lows failed to undercut the previous low which makes the follow-through viable but I am not buying it. Financial and insurance stocks led the markets higher Monday; not the ideal groups to lead a rally.” [...] [...] Don’t Believe the Hype! August 7, 2007 Sorry to tell you but it was all Hype by the media, including my favorite: IBD! “IBD states that the recent market lows failed to undercut the previous low which makes the follow-through viable but I am not buying it. Financial and insurance stocks led the markets higher Monday; not the ideal groups to lead a rally.” [...]

]]> By: Tate http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13398 Tate Sat, 11 Aug 2007 13:57:10 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13398 It was surprising to see them make this call - maybe technically it confirmed a rally according to their criteria but it never pays to be so rigid. After all IBD has had to adjust their criteria in the past for confirming a rally .. maybe it's time again. These rumor/comment driven whipsaws can cause quite a few false positives/negatives using any kind of rigid criteria for making market timing calls. It's a good reminder that you have to have your own system and trust your own analysis. It was surprising to see them make this call – maybe technically it confirmed a rally according to their criteria but it never pays to be so rigid. After all IBD has had to adjust their criteria in the past for confirming a rally .. maybe it’s time again. These rumor/comment driven whipsaws can cause quite a few false positives/negatives using any kind of rigid criteria for making market timing calls. It’s a good reminder that you have to have your own system and trust your own analysis.

]]> By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Absolut Links: Injection Week http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13387 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Absolut Links: Injection Week Sat, 11 Aug 2007 02:01:56 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13387 [...] say: “Listen to the NH-NL Ratio when confirming a rally or follow-through. Without confirmation, the spike among the indices rarely [...] [...] say: “Listen to the NH-NL Ratio when confirming a rally or follow-through. Without confirmation, the spike among the indices rarely [...]

]]> By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Ice Cold Hype! http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13373 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Ice Cold Hype! Fri, 10 Aug 2007 12:40:17 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13373 [...] told everyone “Don’t Believe the Hype” after Monday’s market and this thinking may be coming to fruition. I don’t want to jump the gun [...] [...] told everyone “Don’t Believe the Hype” after Monday’s market and this thinking may be coming to fruition. I don’t want to jump the gun [...]

]]> By: steve hirshon http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13356 steve hirshon Thu, 09 Aug 2007 19:14:36 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13356 Good post. IBD should be all about the numbers, but from time to time (most of the time, really)slips into cheerleader mode on both the editorial and stock pages. Good post. IBD should be all about the numbers, but from time to time (most of the time, really)slips into cheerleader mode on both the editorial and stock pages.

]]> By: piranha http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13353 piranha Thu, 09 Aug 2007 15:05:53 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13353 Peter, There should be a bounce here as we are seeing because the NH-NL levels were extreme and this has pinpointed reversals. However, I don’t buy into the long term upside of the current bounce. Too many leaders sliding and too many new lows over the past three weeks. Terry, The short term buys are fine but the NH-NL ratio is suggesting that that market will correct 10-15% from current levels over the next several months. Clark, IBD is an excellent publication but they tend to lean bullish (in the seven years I have subscribed). We’ll see what happens. I see short-term upside right now based on several technical indicators but the deeper signals say a correction is around the corner. All Others: THANK YOU for the positive comments! Peter,
There should be a bounce here as we are seeing because the NH-NL levels were extreme and this has pinpointed reversals. However, I don’t buy into the long term upside of the current bounce. Too many leaders sliding and too many new lows over the past three weeks.

Terry,
The short term buys are fine but the NH-NL ratio is suggesting that that market will correct 10-15% from current levels over the next several months.

Clark,
IBD is an excellent publication but they tend to lean bullish (in the seven years I have subscribed). We’ll see what happens. I see short-term upside right now based on several technical indicators but the deeper signals say a correction is around the corner.

All Others:
THANK YOU for the positive comments!

]]> By: Clark http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13349 Clark Thu, 09 Aug 2007 02:25:36 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13349 Great observation Chris and it's one I thought too as I read the same article in IBD. IBD usually does a good job of keeping score at times like these. I don't totally disagree with the article. Using follow-through criteria in market timing, one needs to have several of these type days over a period of a few days. IBD did a poor job of explaining this which is why I think, many people may come to the wrong conclusions on this one. Great observation Chris and it’s one I thought too as I read the same article in IBD. IBD usually does a good job of keeping score at times like these. I don’t totally disagree with the article. Using follow-through criteria in market timing, one needs to have several of these type days over a period of a few days. IBD did a poor job of explaining this which is why I think, many people may come to the wrong conclusions on this one.

]]> By: Kris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13348 Kris Wed, 08 Aug 2007 22:15:18 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13348 Well, I held off as long as I could today to see how things would end... but it was looking positive throughout so just before the bell I went long... We'll see how this turns out! Well, I held off as long as I could today to see how things would end… but it was looking positive throughout so just before the bell I went long…

We’ll see how this turns out!

]]> By: Mike O'Connor http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13337 Mike O'Connor Wed, 08 Aug 2007 06:00:50 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13337 It seems that waiting after a dip until the percentage of stocks (NYSE or NASDAQ) that are above their 50-day moving averages comes back up to, say, 35% has hardly any penalty associated with it. In particular, see http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44713786576 , which is a chart of the 50-day percentage for the NYSE. (I find that if I go to the annotate link at the bottom of the chart then it becomes easier to see the alignment of the data because I can then draw horizontal and vertical lines on the chart.) It seems that waiting after a dip until the percentage of stocks (NYSE or NASDAQ) that are above their 50-day moving averages comes back up to, say, 35% has hardly any penalty associated with it.

In particular, see http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44713786576 , which is a chart of the 50-day percentage for the NYSE.

(I find that if I go to the annotate link at the bottom of the chart then it becomes easier to see the alignment of the data because I can then draw horizontal and vertical lines on the chart.)

]]> By: Terry Zink http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/dont-believe-the-hype/comment-page-1/#comment-13331 Terry Zink Wed, 08 Aug 2007 02:01:04 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/08/07/don%e2%80%99t-believe-the-hype/#comment-13331 I'm not so sure that the market's tentative strength is to be disbelieved. The VIX hit 25 on Friday, Aug 3, and high VIX readings tend to be good times to buy. The McClellan Oscillator was showing a positive divergence as well. My guess is that we had a secondary reaction in a bull market, but that's only my opinion. I’m not so sure that the market’s tentative strength is to be disbelieved. The VIX hit 25 on Friday, Aug 3, and high VIX readings tend to be good times to buy. The McClellan Oscillator was showing a positive divergence as well.

My guess is that we had a secondary reaction in a bull market, but that’s only my opinion.

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