The NH-NL Ratio did close in positive territory for the first time in more than a month last week but it wasn’t impressive at +5%. The ratio was above 30% early in the week but almost turned negative after Friday’s disappointing total. Monday’s NH-NL ratio was also negative so we are still in the consolidation phase for the markets. However, the stocks below were higher yesterday with interesting chart patterns and solid fundamentals.

Strong Sister Stocks:
SPWR, FDG, YGE, JASO, ANR, FSLR, LDK

Interesting Stocks with Increasing Fund Sponsorship:

• NMX – 129.02, the stock was up 4.63% on volume 31% larger than the 50-d average. It crossed back above the 50-d m.a. for the first time in several weeks. It needs to make a higher high to snap the recent sideways trend that is sloping downward over time. Originally featured in the December post: Stock Predictions for 2007 - Oh NO! A triple top breakout will confirm on a move above $130.
• SNCR – 34.63, the stock, listed in Fresh IPO Ideas at $27.88 on 6/13/07, is forming an eight week sideways base while playing see-saw on the 50-d m.a. The ideal buy is would be at the 200-d m.a. (a gap-up from April never filled near $20).
• OMPI – 17.31, an interesting young stock that is attempting to build a base above $15 per share. I wouldn’t touch this one until it challenged all-time highs above $20.26.

Interesting Stocks: Recent IPOs:

• VMW – 76.76, the stock was up 10.45% on one of the largest daily volume days since its debut. Today’s move shot the stock into new all-time high territory. The stock is up 20% over the past four days.
• LDK – 58.13, the stock is past all ideal entry points but is one to keep any eye on based on the excellent up-trending strength. The ideal entry would be a pullback to the 50-d m.a. A shorter term entry could be on a slight pullback near $50. This is one to watch for a future $60-$100 run.
• EHTH – 23.44, an interesting cup with handle breakout today with a move above $22.60 (pivot point). The current move could take the stock to the $26 area where a new setup area could form (near all-time highs).
• FSLR – 100.42, the stock is consolidating after the super run from $20 to $119 over the past nine months. FSLR is related to LDK in this category.
• TTPY – 25.40, the young IPO stock is currently forming a seven week pattern will all-time highs above $27.58. A move above $28 is positive on the P&F chart. The ideal buy is along the 50-d m.a. (currently above $24).

Detailed descriptions of each screen can be found through this link:
Fundamental Screens and Scans

This is NOT a buy list, please buy and sell at your own risk!

History tells us to sell this Thursday (September 13, 2007) due to the Rosh Hashanah holiday. It then tells us to buy next Friday (September 21, 2007) when Yom Kippur begins.

Before you follow this advice blindly; I would like to explain that I am having some fun to open the week with some statistics from the Stock Trader’s Almanac. I don’t necessarily buy and sell based on these holiday patterns (and you shouldn’t either) but I like to note and highlight them on the blog from time to time.

The belief is that many traders and investors sell during busy religious observances and focus on their families and faith instead. With this in mind, the Almanac notes that positions are closed out, volume fades and a buying vacuum is created.

What makes these holidays special is the fact that they fall in September or October each year, two very volatile and opportune months. September is the biggest losing month for the DOW and S&P 500 since 1950 (the NASDAQ as well, since 1971). The three have a cumulative total loss of (57.7%), (37.6%) and (34.7%) respectively. The DOW has had 20 up-months and 36 down-months while the S&P 500 has had 23 up-months and 33 down-months during the period from 1950 to 2006. October has given the three indexes a total cumulative gain of 30.4%, 48.9% and 18.5% respectively. This helps to explain the success of the religious buys and sells.

September tends to open strong but then closes weak due to end-of-quarter mutual fund portfolio restructuring and many investors getting back into the swing of things after summer vacations, kids back in school and new business years (fiscal).

Religious Holiday Data:
The Dow Jones Industrial Index has been down 20 of the past 35 years from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur and up 24 of the 35 years from Yom Kippur to Passover. The average loss starting on Rosh Hashanah is (0.4%) and the average gain is 7.1% after Yom Kippur. Seven of the past eight years have given us negative readings starting on Rosh Hashanah while 14 of the past 16 years have shown positive gains from Yom Kippur to Passover. The DOW has gained an average of 9.1% over the past 16 years from Yom Kippur to Passover with the 1998-99 period topping the list at 25.4%.

I leave you with this quote and the current chart of the Nasdaq:

“Major Bottoms are usually made when analysts cut their earnings estimates and companies report earnings which are below expectations.”

– Edward Babbitt, Jr.

It looks like we will finish with our first positive NH-NL ratio in six weeks. I will update the chart for Monday after the market spits out its final data today. Below are interesting stocks that moved higher yesterday and may be poised to make further gains based on pattern setups. Enjoy the weekend!

Highlight Stock (Making New Highs):

• JASO – 39.09, first covered on the blog in a post titled, Fresh IPO ideas, on June 13, 2007 at $24.55. Since then, the stock has made a 59% gain while in the midst of an eight week cup shaped pattern. New positions can be established near or slightly below the 50-d m.a. when pulling back on lighter volume. A detailed trade summary can be found here: Young Guns Taking Off

Interesting Stocks with Increasing Fund Sponsorship:

• CROX – 58.40, the stock seems to be hitting some resistance near $60 but that is quite normal in this area. Look for a pullback of 10%-20% with support above the 200-d m.a. If is holds the support, develop a strong risk-to-reward trade setup and pounce with a possible $60-$100 run in the future. I wrote about CROX in Catch a Rising Star and explained why I never owned the stock. Note that the stock has a gap-up from May that has never been filled!
• OBGI – 17.41, a young stock that was up 9.36% Thursday on volume 101% larger than the 50-d m.a. The recovery of the 50-d m.a. is positive but an ideal entry won’t be calculated until it can challenge all-time highs.
• CEG – 85.42, an interesting consolidation between the 50-d and 200-d moving averages. The P&F chart shows a buy with a move above $88 (also the 50-d m.a.).. Get an ideal risk to reward before taking a trade.
• GTLS – 28.51, building an eight week base after the nine month up-trend that returned more than 100% for investors. Support sits above $24 with a short term buy signal above $29. Look for a handle to form for longer term traders.

Interesting Stocks: Recent IPOs:

• VMW – 69.79, it’s the first time I am covering the stock as it is yet to build any recognizable base. However, the support and hype is still there so be ready to pounce on pullbacks and look for a ride towards the triple digit threshold ($100). An unusual $60-$100 run.
• LULU – 36.95, I am not sure if I trust it enough to buy but the chart is showing strength as the stock was up 6.06% today on the largest volume in three weeks. A move to new all-time highs is positive.
• MR – 37.90, highlighted last night as the stock was up 3.07% for a weekly gain of 6.79% and a new all-time high. The ideal entry has passed as explained yesterday.
• FCSX – 50.90, the stock was screened as a case study on June 4, 2007 at $47.96 and reached a peak of $64.45 but has since corrected below the 50-d m.a. It filled the gap from early June but recently gapped-up to end August (so keep an eye on this). It’s a buy if the gap fills on lighter volume.

Detailed descriptions of each screen can be found through this link:
Fundamental Screens and Scans

This is NOT a buy list, please buy and sell at your own risk!

I will start with a small daily screen today, highlighting stocks from two key screens I run every night after the market closes. It is very important to understand that I only run my trend trading screens after the market closes (after market data is best for this system).

Highlight Stock (Making New Highs):

• MR – 36.77, Mindray Medical has been covered on this blog since January 20, 2007 at $24.95. It currently has a 47% gain in eight months and has been making new all-time highs over the past week. The ideal entry has passed but new shares can be added in the future along the 50-day moving average. The stock has been headlined in five posts since January if you use the search feature on the blog (type: “mindray”)

Interesting Stocks within 10% of the 200-d m.a.:

• GOOG – 527.80, currently building a seven week cup shaped pattern with support at the 200-d m.a.
• COH – 45.81, the stock is currently trading below the 200-d m.a. but is has been establishing support above $40 on the weekly chart and the point and figure chart. A move above $47 is positive.
• LH – 78.82, this is and has been a pure trend-buying opportunity for the past two years. The ideal entry is along the 200-d m.a. with support above $70
• EBAY – 35.23, the old timer is starting to move with higher highs and higher lows. A double top breakout above $38 is the next breakout signal. The ideal buy is along the 200-d m.a. on a pull back with lighter volume.

Interesting Stocks: Recent IPOs:

• EJ – 21.88, a young Chinese company that has been trending higher since its debut. Ideal areas haven’t developed but a position can be taken near $19 with support near $16.
• EDU – 55.65, a long time favorite of this blog since it traded in the $30-range. Continue to make buys along the major moving averages (50-d and 200-d)
• STAR – 21.08, a young stock with some upside according to the charts. The latest ideal entry will be near $19 with support just below the 50-d m.a. Give this one some time to pullback and relax before jumping in.
• WCRX – 19.01, currently building the right side of its first cup shaped base with shorter term support at the 50-d m.a. The P&F chart suggest support near $16 to $17. Look for a handle to form on the current pattern, giving us a pivot point.

Detailed descriptions of each screen can be found through this link:
Fundamental Screens and Scans

This is NOT a buy list, please buy and sell at your own risk!

Below is a quick overview of the CANSLIM buying and screening strategy that I will use for the daily screens on chrisperruna.com

• I start by analyzing the fundamentals (accelerating earnings, sales and ROE) by using a combination of several screeners on the web to narrow down my list of quality fundamental stocks. The custom screen wizard from Investor’s Business Daily is one of my favorites.
• Next, I study the charts (technical analysis) and look at every stock screened. I pay particular attention to stocks that are poised to move and especially stocks with potential to move quickly. I am a trend-trader by nature but I have no problem making swing trades when the reward heavily outweighs the risk.
• I could never buy every stock that makes the daily screens but I try to include only stocks that look poised to make a move for those of you interested in buying certain candidates. The daily screen is just an equity research list, not an automatic buy screen.
• Finally: No investor is perfect and losses are part of the game when it comes to Wall Street. You must understand that these daily screens give us stocks that will allow me to maintain an expectancy to come out ahead each year. I will have as many winners as I do losers on these screens but I will only take the best risk-to-reward setups and will execute my game plan so the winners are consistently larger than the losers. This method is profitable if you follow the basic rules and control your emotions.

In order for my screening method to work, the “M” in CANSLIM is the MOST important aspect to the system’s success. For those of you not familiar with CANSLIM, the M stands for market health, if the market is weak, DON’T BUY long. No matter how good the fundamentals and technicals look, stocks will have a high risk of failure during weak markets.

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