Comments on: The Real PTR Climax Run? http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/ Tue, 17 Aug 2010 02:24:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Platinum Climax Top? http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-16835 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Platinum Climax Top? Mon, 18 Feb 2008 15:30:06 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-16835 [...] What catches my eye is the extreme run-up over the past two months as the metal seems to be making a climax run (out of character during the 10-year up-trend). Similar action started to happen in PTR and I highlighted it in the exact manner as I am doing here with $PLAT in a post titled The Real PTR Climax Run. [...] [...] What catches my eye is the extreme run-up over the past two months as the metal seems to be making a climax run (out of character during the 10-year up-trend). Similar action started to happen in PTR and I highlighted it in the exact manner as I am doing here with $PLAT in a post titled The Real PTR Climax Run. [...]

]]> By: Aaron http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14534 Aaron Fri, 19 Oct 2007 03:13:42 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14534 The stock clearly looks overbought but it has looked that way to me for quite some time. Even today the Chinese energy stocks rallied back from their intraday lows. The stock clearly looks overbought but it has looked that way to me for quite some time. Even today the Chinese energy stocks rallied back from their intraday lows.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14533 Chris Fri, 19 Oct 2007 01:31:25 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14533 Hey guys, I agree with everything covered in the comments. The puts are over-priced, too much to justify the position. Besides, I already have a long straddle placed on VMW that is very speculative. I can't have too many spec plays at one time in this type of market. To get back to the post: ignore shorting or buying puts for PTR. I will stick by my analysis and advice: Sell into strength. That's all, forget trying to pick a top in Chinese stocks but capture hard profits. It may go to $300. Seriously, I wouldn't doubt something as crazy as $400 within a couple months. However, just as Dave mentions, $200 in not out of the question by next week. Nice comments!!! Hey guys,
I agree with everything covered in the comments. The puts are over-priced, too much to justify the position. Besides, I already have a long straddle placed on VMW that is very speculative. I can’t have too many spec plays at one time in this type of market.

To get back to the post: ignore shorting or buying puts for PTR. I will stick by my analysis and advice: Sell into strength.

That’s all, forget trying to pick a top in Chinese stocks but capture hard profits. It may go to $300. Seriously, I wouldn’t doubt something as crazy as $400 within a couple months. However, just as Dave mentions, $200 in not out of the question by next week.

Nice comments!!!

]]> By: Paul (themarketspeculator http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14532 Paul (themarketspeculator Fri, 19 Oct 2007 01:11:29 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14532 Chris, It's interesting you brought up the climax top as I shorted TBSI yesterday based on this type of analysis (volume surge after extended run). I got burned on that one, but I have to say some of the Chinese stocks are quite tempting . . . Chris,
It’s interesting you brought up the climax top as I shorted TBSI yesterday based on this type of analysis (volume surge after extended run). I got burned on that one, but I have to say some of the Chinese stocks are quite tempting . . .

]]> By: Dave http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14531 Dave Fri, 19 Oct 2007 01:04:40 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14531 Keep in mind that much of this stock's movement tracks the Chinese stock (0857), which doesn't follow the basic principles of finance and/or the human psychology that is embodied in technical analysis. We're playing by the right rules to the wrong game. What, to us, looks like a climax, could just as easily be a rest stop on the way to XOM's market cap. I lost money shorting it (with puts) before, and I'd sure as hell would love to short it now, but the puts are too expensive to justify the risk that this baby could hit 300 just as easily as 200. Keep in mind that much of this stock’s movement tracks the Chinese stock (0857), which doesn’t follow the basic principles of finance and/or the human psychology that is embodied in technical analysis. We’re playing by the right rules to the wrong game. What, to us, looks like a climax, could just as easily be a rest stop on the way to XOM’s market cap. I lost money shorting it (with puts) before, and I’d sure as hell would love to short it now, but the puts are too expensive to justify the risk that this baby could hit 300 just as easily as 200.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14528 Chris Thu, 18 Oct 2007 18:36:32 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14528 MDJ, I wouln't short here as put options are the better play with lower initial risk and larger reward. It's risky but the premium is all you would have at risk and yo can place a stop on that loss as well. November or December puts are my short term play. But I would not short to answer your question. MDJ,
I wouln’t short here as put options are the better play with lower initial risk and larger reward. It’s risky but the premium is all you would have at risk and yo can place a stop on that loss as well. November or December puts are my short term play. But I would not short to answer your question.

]]> By: MillionDollarJourney.com http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14525 MillionDollarJourney.com Thu, 18 Oct 2007 17:44:18 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14525 Would you guys be so bold as to short PTR here? Would you guys be so bold as to short PTR here?

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14524 Chris Thu, 18 Oct 2007 16:02:15 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14524 Abhi, It can be marked as both: a buy signal for a new breakout and an upper trend channel violation. That line is now support if and when the stock drops. The first call at a climax run was early because the volume was lacking and I should have noted that in the blog post. PTR is down today but we all saw that coming with China getting hit with bad news early this morning. Abhi,
It can be marked as both: a buy signal for a new breakout and an upper trend channel violation. That line is now support if and when the stock drops. The first call at a climax run was early because the volume was lacking and I should have noted that in the blog post.

PTR is down today but we all saw that coming with China getting hit with bad news early this morning.

]]> By: Abhi http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14523 Abhi Thu, 18 Oct 2007 15:49:17 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14523 Chris, First, I like your column a lot. You are one of very few genuine blogs about trends amongst a sea of pretenders. About PTR, the move yesterday does seem a bit strange and exaggerated. So your advice to sell may be gold. But in your first picture, where you mark a candlestick and comment 'Violation of upper channel line', I would not have interpreted that in the same way. To me, it was a signal of a new rally after a natural reaction. Chris,

First, I like your column a lot. You are one of very few genuine blogs about trends amongst a sea of pretenders.
About PTR, the move yesterday does seem a bit strange and exaggerated. So your advice to sell may be gold.
But in your first picture, where you mark a candlestick and comment ‘Violation of upper channel line’, I would not have interpreted that in the same way. To me, it was a signal of a new rally after a natural reaction.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/comment-page-1/#comment-14522 Chris Thu, 18 Oct 2007 15:26:11 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2007/10/18/the-real-ptr-climax-run/#comment-14522 David, not sure if I follow what you are asking? Is the rest of China ina climaz run? Probably not but we will see wild swings with pullbacks and jumps. David, not sure if I follow what you are asking? Is the rest of China ina climaz run? Probably not but we will see wild swings with pullbacks and jumps.

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