Should we Accumulate Shares?

The stocks below represent current leaders that may be presenting opportunities near the two major moving averages. The first list presents stocks at or near their 200-d moving averages (they are also trading below their 50-d moving averages).

The second list contains some of the largest gainers of 2007, the leaders just about every stock blog has been covering over the past 6-12 months. These stocks are trading at or near their 50-d moving averages with further room to correct as their 200-d moving averages are considerably lower than their current trading range.

The bull may have another leg and if it does, these stocks should present some of the best risk-to-reward ratios moving forward. Don’t question the setups! Take the trades, accumulate shares and only sell if the setup fails and reaches your maximum risk.

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Stocks Approaching the 200-d Moving Average:

  • SNCR – 30.04, down for the fifth consecutive week as the IPO leader from 2007 approaches the 200-d moving average for the first time. Support in this area is a buying opportunity (accumulation). Give it some time to base and catch support
  • SLB – 91.04, look for the stock to correct down to the 200-d moving average and build a base for the first time since the up-trend started in early 2007 at $60 (it successfully completed the $60-$100 run).
  • GRMN – 82.32, the former high flyer is down $40 as it approaches the 200-d m.a. for the first time since early 2007. A base here is a great accumulation opportunity.
  • STLD – 46.80, allow the stock to correct and gather support just below the 200-d m.a. and then add shares (this strategy has offered solid risk/reward over the past couple of years).
  • CELG – 62.28, the stock is currently setting up its fourth 200-d moving average base over the past two years. Set the risk/reward and pounce.
  • PCU – 103.00, look for support to build above the 200-d m.a. which is also near the psychologically important triple digit threshold. What an amazing run!
  • NVDA – 30.03, allow the stock to correct further towards the 200-d m.a. and wait for support to form before setting up and ideal accumulation point.

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Stocks Hugging the 50-d Moving Average:

  • AAPL – 153.76, the stock sliced the 50-d moving average yesterday on above average volume and has along way to go before reaching the 200-d m.a. (below $125)
  • GOOG – 632.07, the stock has shed more than $100 over the past few days as it looks to find the first level of support at the 50-d m.a. The 200-d m.a. currently sits near $520. I wouldn’t be surprised if it corrected down towards the 200-d m.a.
  • BIDU – 301.50, this stock has been hit very hard over the past five days as it has lost more than $125 from its peak high. Baidu is currently sitting at the 50-d m.a. with its 200-d m.a. just above $183.
  • RIMM – 102.60, Three days of hard drops as the stock now sits at the 50-d m.a. for the first time since August (and June before that). The 200-d m.a. is currently below $70.
  • EDU – 68.40, the Chinese leader is touching its 50-d m.a. for the first time since late summer with its 200-d m.a. down near $52.
  • JASO – 48.67, the stock made a large reversal up near $72 which sent it into the current correction back down near the 50-d m.a. Volume has increased immensely.
  • BX – 22.26, the stock took a hard 8.32% hit yesterday and continues to struggle near the 50-d m.a. It is still above the prior support of $21.30. I still like the stock long term but some concern has crept in.

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Hot Blogs on my Blogroll

Take some time to read great material written on the blogs below as you recover from the crazy week that was! These blogs must be added to my past lists of must read stock blogs and my Hall of Fame Blogs (links to former lists are at the bottom of this post).

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Hot Blogs on my Blogroll:

Former Top Blogs and Must Read Lists:

Hall of Fame Stock Blogs:
Only three exist in my mind at this time.

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Market Corrections, Bears and the Big Picture

Market Corrections:
Market corrections are healthy as they allow advancing stocks to take a step back and breathe. Corrections of 5%-10% allow the leading stocks to shake out all weak holders while setting up support levels and sometimes new base formations. Humans (traders) are typically sheep so they pile in at the top and run for the doors at the bottom. Don’t follow the crowd, so don’t panic during a market correction.

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Look at the overall BIG PICTURE before making major decisions on a short term intraday or daily chart.

Even weekly charts can fake you out when you start to see red across your portfolio screen (during a large market correction).

Market corrections and flat markets allow intelligent investors to study conditions carefully while they sit on the sideline patiently awaiting the defining trend. Money is made on the big moves, not the minor day to day moves. Corrections allow big moves to establish themselves.

Don’t go crazy over the minor day to day moves! Look at the BIG PICTURE!

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As for Bear Markets:

  • Keep in mind that nearly 75% of all stocks follow the general market trend
  • Your cash doesn’t need to be committed to the market at all times. This philosophy is suited to making the most money in bull markets or markets trending higher
  • It is psychologically and emotionally healthy to get out of the market from time to time, especially after a losing streak
  • It is essential to keep up your watch lists during bear markets and/or general market corrections as many present and future leading stocks are building new bases
  • Stocks that correct the least and display the highest relative strength ratings tend to be the leaders of the next up-trend or bull market. Take note of all stocks that are base building during corrections; a cup with handle, flat base or major moving average support.

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Signs pointing towards a correction or bear market:

  • The major indexes will advance on below average volume
  • Stocks making new 52-week highs will be limited
  • Stocks making new lows will increase
  • Major indexes will fall below the 50-day MA and/or the 200-day MA
  • Index averages will start to under perform. Relative strength lines will head south
  • Major publications will tout hot stocks at key market reversals (market tops)
  • Institutional (smart money) will bail on huge volume
  • General market index down days on excessive volume (always above average)
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Point and Figure Charts

A point and figure chart is:

“A chart that plots day-to-day price movements without taking into consideration the passage of time. Point and figure charts are composed of a number of columns that either consist of a series of stacked Xs or Os. A column of Xs is used to illustrate a rising price, while Os represent a falling price. This type of chart is used to filter out non-significant price movements, and enables the trader to easily determine critical support and resistance levels. Traders will place orders when the price moves beyond identified support/resistance levels.”

Investopedia

“Additional points are added to the chart once the price changes by more than a predefined amount (known as the box size). For example, if the box size is set to equal one and the price of the asset is $15, then another X would be added to the stack of Xs once the price surpasses $16. Each column consists of only one letter (either X or O) – never both. New columns are placed to the right of the previous column and are only added once the price changes direction by more than a predefined reversal amount.”

Investopedia

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I use point and figure analysis every night while scanning my charts because I can easily determine key support and resistance levels. Many indicators can trigger buy and sell signals but I stick to the basics and only trade a few patterns that the point and figure charts offer, such as the ones described below (see chart examples as well).

Understand that I use point and figure charts as a secondary technical analysis tool behind candlestick charts (both daily and weekly). I view point and figure charts (will be referred to as a P&F from this point forward) after I find an interesting stock that has already passed my fundamental criteria and peeked my interest on the candlestick charts. Support and resistance levels can be found using basic candlestick and bar charts but P&F charts eliminate the unimportant noise by setting-up the critical levels and breakouts or breakdowns with the more important (larger) moves.

My favorite pattern setup is the Triple Top Breakout which occurs when a stock hits a certain level of resistance on three separate occasions, telling me that a move above this zone has some meaning. Not every triple top breakout will be successful but the odds of a breakout above this setup increase dramatically. As with all trading, you must take the signal with proper position sizing and set your stops without thinking like a human.

[Read more...]

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Blog hits a New High

Page views and visits were up more than 39% in October for the best month ever at chrisperruna.com. Thank you to everyone – I really do appreciate every single reader of this blog and especially readers that leave their excellent comments!

I end each month by taking a step back and looking at the tremendous progress that this blog is making with visits and page views. My goal is to be the best stock market blog offering the highest quality and unbiased equity research along with the education to help you succeed.

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Feel free to visit my public stock charts list and definitely vote for it if you enjoy the work I am doing. The link is always posted on the right side bar of this blog. I don’t get anything for the vote except a smile for work well done!



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