Comments on: Charts Called the Top in October http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/ A blog about trading, finances, success and life itself Fri, 30 Dec 2011 14:18:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16158 Chris Tue, 22 Jan 2008 19:07:57 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16158 Airelon, Please read the blog before this type of a response. Every trade I make must have a reasonable risk/ reward ratio prior to entering. Your net result comes from proper risk/ reward. Some systems have 20% positive rates, some have 50% and some have 80%. The point: the one with 20% can be more profitbale than the one with 80%. I usually come in near 50% ( /-) a few percent. Airelon,
Please read the blog before this type of a response. Every trade I make must have a reasonable risk/ reward ratio prior to entering.

Your net result comes from proper risk/ reward. Some systems have 20% positive rates, some have 50% and some have 80%. The point: the one with 20% can be more profitbale than the one with 80%.

I usually come in near 50% ( /-) a few percent.

]]> By: Airelon http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16157 Airelon Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:57:07 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16157 "That’s the only bottom line that I am concerned with. I could care less if 80% of my picks were wrong if I still showed a profit. That’s what you need to learn. It’s the net result, not how many are right and wrong." That is precisely why most traders lose. They only look to accuracy rate, and not to the risk / reward ratios. There are plenty of traders that are wrong 50% of the time, or more, but because they have their risk / reward ratios set properly - THEY MAKE MONEY!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmBlP4l7TNo&feature=related “That’s the only bottom line that I am concerned with. I could care less if 80% of my picks were wrong if I still showed a profit. That’s what you need to learn. It’s the net result, not how many are right and wrong.”

That is precisely why most traders lose. They only look to accuracy rate, and not to the risk / reward ratios. There are plenty of traders that are wrong 50% of the time, or more, but because they have their risk / reward ratios set properly – THEY MAKE MONEY!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmBlP4l7TNo&feature=related

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16078 Chris Fri, 18 Jan 2008 02:39:16 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16078 pn, I gave an answer to YGE on that blog post. Haven't pulled the trigger yet but maybe a portion tomorrow based on market open. pn, I gave an answer to YGE on that blog post. Haven’t pulled the trigger yet but maybe a portion tomorrow based on market open.

]]> By: My Life and Times » chrisperruna.com » Charts Called the Top in October http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16074 My Life and Times » chrisperruna.com » Charts Called the Top in October Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:37:36 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16074 [...] chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Charts Called the Top in October The charts clearly called the top of this market in October 2007 and did so with great accuracy. The NASDAQ was flashing multiple distribution days as you can see from the blog posts I made three months ago. You can view the original color charts through the links provided but I am including them here as grayscale images. I wrote about a possible top on several occasions in October but the market leaders continued to move higher so we kept trading the trend. [...] [...] chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Charts Called the Top in October The charts clearly called the top of this market in October 2007 and did so with great accuracy. The NASDAQ was flashing multiple distribution days as you can see from the blog posts I made three months ago. You can view the original color charts through the links provided but I am including them here as grayscale images. I wrote about a possible top on several occasions in October but the market leaders continued to move higher so we kept trading the trend. [...]

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16070 Chris Thu, 17 Jan 2008 14:01:39 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16070 Also, The individual "stock of the day" buys stopped after October. I wonder why! The market was overbought so I stopped buying as heavily as I did earlier in the year. Of the 32 portfolio stock of the day stocks, only two were bought in Ocotber, one on the 2nd and one ont he 30th. Nothing was posted in November or December for new buys, only accumulation to stocks I already owned. I listen to the charts! How's that for cherry picking? I don't hide anything here (I don't need to because I trade for myself and write for free so what's the motive), it's all in writing for 50,000 viewers per month. Also,
The individual “stock of the day” buys stopped after October. I wonder why!

The market was overbought so I stopped buying as heavily as I did earlier in the year.

Of the 32 portfolio stock of the day stocks, only two were bought in Ocotber, one on the 2nd and one ont he 30th.

Nothing was posted in November or December for new buys, only accumulation to stocks I already owned. I listen to the charts! How’s that for cherry picking? I don’t hide anything here (I don’t need to because I trade for myself and write for free so what’s the motive), it’s all in writing for 50,000 viewers per month.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16069 Chris Thu, 17 Jan 2008 13:55:38 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16069 Cherry, I most certainly have some bad picks and do highlight them as well over the course of a year. With a slightly higher than 50% average in 2007, almost half the picks were wrong. So, what’s your point? It’s the net result that is most important. 50% of my picks were wrong but the selections as a whole were up more than 43% (buy and hold - even better using sell rules). That’s the only bottom line that I am concerned with. I could care less if 80% of my picks were wrong if I still showed a profit. That’s what you need to learn. It's the net result, not how many are right and wrong. Cherry,
I most certainly have some bad picks and do highlight them as well over the course of a year. With a slightly higher than 50% average in 2007, almost half the picks were wrong.

So, what’s your point?

It’s the net result that is most important. 50% of my picks were wrong but the selections as a whole were up more than 43% (buy and hold – even better using sell rules).

That’s the only bottom line that I am concerned with. I could care less if 80% of my picks were wrong if I still showed a profit. That’s what you need to learn. It’s the net result, not how many are right and wrong.

]]> By: cherrypicker http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16065 cherrypicker Thu, 17 Jan 2008 05:36:35 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16065 I see way too many cherry picking. A question and a statement are different things. I know you have some bad picks, why not highlight what went wrong with them? I see way too many cherry picking.

A question and a statement are different things.

I know you have some bad picks, why not highlight what went wrong with them?

]]> By: Solid Reads on the Stock Market - Stock Trading To Go http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16064 Solid Reads on the Stock Market - Stock Trading To Go Thu, 17 Jan 2008 04:58:44 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16064 [...] friend Chris Perruna wrote a detailed piece on calling the market top. Chris is a great trader and if you haven’t read his material before better start now because [...] [...] friend Chris Perruna wrote a detailed piece on calling the market top. Chris is a great trader and if you haven’t read his material before better start now because [...]

]]> By: pn http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16057 pn Wed, 16 Jan 2008 22:02:05 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16057 Chris, YGE briefly hit $25 today. Did you take the trade or are you planning to buy later? I just couldn't pull the trigger... Chris, YGE briefly hit $25 today. Did you take the trade or are you planning to buy later? I just couldn’t pull the trigger…

]]> By: MarketBeat Blog - WSJ.com : Blog Roll -- This Was Preordained http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/comment-page-1/#comment-16056 MarketBeat Blog - WSJ.com : Blog Roll -- This Was Preordained Wed, 16 Jan 2008 20:14:02 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/01/16/charts-called-the-top-in-october/#comment-16056 [...] Chris Perruna concentrates on charts, and he notes that the technical analysis suggested months ago that a decline was coming — although now he foresees at least a short-term bounce in the market. “Bottom line – the warning signs were there, we talked about selling the red flags and it all came to fruition,” he writes. [...]

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