Comments on: Can we STOP with the Predictions? http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/ Sat, 13 Mar 2010 03:09:49 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.2 hourly 1 By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Buffett a huge bull on the American Economy http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16707 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Buffett a huge bull on the American Economy Wed, 13 Feb 2008 12:51:20 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16707 [...] Below are the most logical statements I have heard in a long time. He makes much more sense than the predictions we are bombarded with by the talking head media and so-called “experts”. The so-called experts [...] [...] Below are the most logical statements I have heard in a long time. He makes much more sense than the predictions we are bombarded with by the talking head media and so-called “experts”. The so-called experts [...]

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16697 Chris Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:01:01 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16697 Thanks for the comments - it makes for great blog conversation. I still ignore people that predict - at all costs! Who wants to predict the next president? or where the NASDAQ will close this Friday. Bottom line - what's the point? Thanks for the comments – it makes for great blog conversation. I still ignore people that predict – at all costs!

Who wants to predict the next president? or where the NASDAQ will close this Friday.

Bottom line – what’s the point?

]]> By: astupidass http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16691 astupidass Tue, 12 Feb 2008 09:31:18 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16691 A quote that springs to mind at the moment is: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt." Take this quote: * Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years. If we have a look at it, what it really says is "there might be some sort of war in kenya in the next 10 years but I can't be sure." or to paraphrase even further "I just spent two lines to say nothing." Gee man, thanks a lot. A quote that springs to mind at the moment is: “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.”

Take this quote: * Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years.

If we have a look at it, what it really says is “there might be some sort of war in kenya in the next 10 years but I can’t be sure.” or to paraphrase even further “I just spent two lines to say nothing.”

Gee man, thanks a lot.

]]> By: Bryan http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16676 Bryan Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:39:57 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16676 Predictions are GOOD, actually. It does make it clear that we really don't know with certainty. That's a good thing. Sports, no clue who will win. Politics, usually no clue. Romance, no clue. Markets, no clue, etc.... so when you give a prediction you come off as some "expert". It's a better feeling than doing something so remedial that any idiot can do it and the results are fixed; example, make a hamburger. Even huge companies guess a little bit before they spend a ton on R&D, and they definitely guess or make a prediction what their customer will like. Predictions are GOOD, actually. It does make it clear that we really don’t know with certainty. That’s a good thing. Sports, no clue who will win. Politics, usually no clue. Romance, no clue. Markets, no clue, etc…. so when you give a prediction you come off as some “expert”. It’s a better feeling than doing something so remedial that any idiot can do it and the results are fixed; example, make a hamburger. Even huge companies guess a little bit before they spend a ton on R&D, and they definitely guess or make a prediction what their customer will like.

]]> By: John J. Xenakis http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16631 John J. Xenakis Sat, 09 Feb 2008 20:34:39 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16631 Dear Janet, Well before 2060, the Singularity will have occurred. "The Singularity" is the name given to the point in time where computers become more intelligent than human beings, with the same creative capabilities to do anything that a human can do, only much faster. By around 2030, computers will be doing their own research and manufacturing to make themselves even more powerful. There's no way to predict what will happen after that, even whether the human race will continue to exist by 2060. John Dear Janet,

Well before 2060, the Singularity will have occurred. “The Singularity” is the name given to the point in time where computers become more intelligent than human beings, with the same creative capabilities to do anything that a human can do, only much faster. By around 2030, computers will be doing their own research and manufacturing to make themselves even more powerful.

There’s no way to predict what will happen after that, even whether the human race will continue to exist by 2060.

John

]]> By: Janet http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16608 Janet Fri, 08 Feb 2008 23:58:05 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16608 These doomsayers will eventually be right one day...I'll make a prediction it will happen in 2060...I'm writing it down on my calendar. Ooops, I'll be long dead....guess I won't have to worry about it then. These doomsayers will eventually be right one day…I’ll make a prediction it will happen in 2060…I’m writing it down on my calendar. Ooops, I’ll be long dead….guess I won’t have to worry about it then.

]]> By: Boy YR http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16599 Boy YR Fri, 08 Feb 2008 17:40:50 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16599 Hi, I see some interesting opinions here. I agree either with Chris and John. I have learned and practiced some trading strategies, and found each of them useful and profitable. Each trading strategies have their advances and weaknesses. None of a trading strategy claimed as the best above of all, right? At the first time, I used “reactive” trading strategy. Some says it is ‘trend follower’. This strategy requires no prediction. All you have to do is ‘buy’ when indicators told you to buy, and ‘sell’ if indicators told you to sell. Now, I use “predictive” trading strategy. Not of all the predictions are correct, but reward big profit when it correct. The main purpose is not to be always right, but to make big profit when I’m right and cut short the losses when I’m wrong. There is no trading strategy could fit and applicable to all users, right? Someone have to find a trading strategy that could fit their needs and make them comfort to use it. Currently, I invest or trade in Indonesian Stock Exchange. I haven’t invest or trade in US stock market. I’m sorry for my language, I still learning for English. Hi, I see some interesting opinions here. I agree either with Chris and John.

I have learned and practiced some trading strategies, and found each of them useful and profitable. Each trading strategies have their advances and weaknesses. None of a trading strategy claimed as the best above of all, right?

At the first time, I used “reactive” trading strategy. Some says it is ‘trend follower’. This strategy requires no prediction. All you have to do is ‘buy’ when indicators told you to buy, and ‘sell’ if indicators told you to sell.

Now, I use “predictive” trading strategy. Not of all the predictions are correct, but reward big profit when it correct. The main purpose is not to be always right, but to make big profit when I’m right and cut short the losses when I’m wrong.

There is no trading strategy could fit and applicable to all users, right?
Someone have to find a trading strategy that could fit their needs and make them comfort to use it.

Currently, I invest or trade in Indonesian Stock Exchange. I haven’t invest or trade in US stock market.
I’m sorry for my language, I still learning for English.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16595 Chris Fri, 08 Feb 2008 13:52:46 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16595 PJ, The blog promotes trading education and equity research – not predicting anything in the market. Take a look and let me know if you see predications anywhere. I have no idea where the market will end today or even within the hour – telling you I know is a prediction and I don't and can't do that. I am in the business of trading, which means making decisions based on risk versus reward setups. Some are right, some are wrong, the point is to make money on the right side and lose less on the wrong side. I don’t predict nor will I ever. Take a look around the 600 pages – no predictions here. PJ,
The blog promotes trading education and equity research – not predicting anything in the market. Take a look and let me know if you see predications anywhere. I have no idea where the market will end today or even within the hour – telling you I know is a prediction and I don’t and can’t do that.

I am in the business of trading, which means making decisions based on risk versus reward setups. Some are right, some are wrong, the point is to make money on the right side and lose less on the wrong side. I don’t predict nor will I ever.

Take a look around the 600 pages – no predictions here.

]]> By: PJ http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16594 PJ Fri, 08 Feb 2008 13:44:49 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16594 Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this blog promote trading stocks? And if so, doesn't that, by definition, require making predictions? Appears as though the pot's calling the kettle black. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t this blog promote trading stocks? And if so, doesn’t that, by definition, require making predictions? Appears as though the pot’s calling the kettle black.

]]> By: John J. Xenakis http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-16589 John J. Xenakis Fri, 08 Feb 2008 04:24:21 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/07/can-we-stop-with-the-predictions/#comment-16589 Those quotes don't really make sense, and aren't even the kinds of thing that Lao Tzu said. If "He who speaks does not know," then only mutes know anything. Those quotes sound like the kind of thing that would come from a Hindu guru or a Zen Koan. Lao Tzu's style was nothing like that. He was brutally direct and didn't tolerate that kind of nonsense. The following is more typical of Lao Tzu, and relates to the current discussion: "Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is FOREKNOWLEDGE." Now THAT makes sense to me. John Those quotes don’t really make sense, and aren’t even the kinds of thing that Lao Tzu said.

If “He who speaks does not know,” then only mutes know anything.

Those quotes sound like the kind of thing that would come from a Hindu guru or a Zen Koan. Lao Tzu’s style was nothing like that. He was brutally direct and didn’t tolerate that kind of nonsense.

The following is more typical of Lao Tzu, and relates to the current discussion:

“Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is FOREKNOWLEDGE.”

Now THAT makes sense to me.

John

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