Comments on: Platinum Climax Top? http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/ A blog about trading, finances, success and life itself Fri, 30 Dec 2011 14:18:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: A Gold Climax Top? http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-23170 A Gold Climax Top? Sun, 21 Aug 2011 14:27:07 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-23170 [...] Platinum Climax Top? | February 18, 2008 What catches my eye is the extreme run-up over the past two months as the metal seems to be making a climax run (out of character during the 10-year up-trend). Similar action started to happen in PTR and I highlighted it in the exact manner as I am doing here with $PLAT in a post titled The Real PTR Climax Run. [...] [...] Platinum Climax Top? | February 18, 2008 What catches my eye is the extreme run-up over the past two months as the metal seems to be making a climax run (out of character during the 10-year up-trend). Similar action started to happen in PTR and I highlighted it in the exact manner as I am doing here with $PLAT in a post titled The Real PTR Climax Run. [...]

]]> By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » US Dollar Buy Signal http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-19401 chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » US Dollar Buy Signal Mon, 25 Aug 2008 01:39:30 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-19401 [...] metals have been weak; especially Platinum and Gold (see this February post, 02/18/08: Platinum Climax Top?, where I highlighted the climax top in Platinum). I’ll admit: these things take time but [...] [...] metals have been weak; especially Platinum and Gold (see this February post, 02/18/08: Platinum Climax Top?, where I highlighted the climax top in Platinum). I’ll admit: these things take time but [...]

]]> By: sensible http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16968 sensible Sat, 23 Feb 2008 08:28:32 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16968 Lots of places to find volume for platinum futures (hint - try looking at the exchange's web site). Without typing in all of the numbers, it generally ranged from 1000-3000 contracts per day up until the beginning of the month, and has increased to about 3000-5000 contracts a day since then. Options always work great in theory, but platinum has no options that actively trade (no surprise with such low volume). Plus with a 28 (using historical here) vol, they would be expensive as hell. A put with a 2100 strike (versus a current price of 2167.8) would cost 1.58% (34.25 or 1712.50 per contract) - plus the bid/ask spread. You would basically need a hundred point drop from here (in twenty-five days) just to break even. Lots of places to find volume for platinum futures (hint – try looking at the exchange’s web site). Without typing in all of the numbers, it generally ranged from 1000-3000 contracts per day up until the beginning of the month, and has increased to about 3000-5000 contracts a day since then.

Options always work great in theory, but platinum has no options that actively trade (no surprise with such low volume). Plus with a 28 (using historical here) vol, they would be expensive as hell. A put with a 2100 strike (versus a current price of 2167.8) would cost 1.58% (34.25 or 1712.50 per contract) – plus the bid/ask spread. You would basically need a hundred point drop from here (in twenty-five days) just to break even.

]]> By: tom http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16872 tom Tue, 19 Feb 2008 18:47:45 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16872 Options are a great way to go. This thing is trading five standard deviations with a mean price of 1790. We are expecting a Minor Seasonal Cycle in the February 25/28th timeframe, which may usher in an intermediate high. The final high is not expected until the late-April/early-May timeframe. A pullback into the 1800/1790 over the next 3-5 weeks seems likely and with options you can position yourself for a move back down with limited downside risk to your portfolio. Chris, great work! Options are a great way to go. This thing is trading five standard deviations with a mean price of 1790. We are expecting a Minor Seasonal Cycle in the February 25/28th timeframe, which may usher in an intermediate high. The final high is not expected until the late-April/early-May timeframe. A pullback into the 1800/1790 over the next 3-5 weeks seems likely and with options you can position yourself for a move back down with limited downside risk to your portfolio.

Chris, great work!

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16871 Chris Tue, 19 Feb 2008 18:12:50 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16871 S, Maybe so! Like I said, the trade hasn’t initiated yet. No signal as of today. However, if the market was logical, millions more would be wealthy. News, speculation, so-called demand, natural disasters, etc. aren’t very accurate predictors of the market. Technical analysis tells the story long before the news hits the wire and logical thinking can adjust. Long before situations change. I am not picking a top. I got an alert so I wrote about it. The alert stated that red flags are starting to appear. That’s all folks! Trading is about getting signals, setting up the risk/reward and taking the high expectancy trade. Some are wrong, some are right. Basing my trades on “what is going on in the news, media and South Africa wouldn’t be too smart”. I will follow the chart and take the trade if is signals! S,
Maybe so! Like I said, the trade hasn’t initiated yet. No signal as of today.

However, if the market was logical, millions more would be wealthy. News, speculation, so-called demand, natural disasters, etc. aren’t very accurate predictors of the market. Technical analysis tells the story long before the news hits the wire and logical thinking can adjust. Long before situations change.

I am not picking a top. I got an alert so I wrote about it. The alert stated that red flags are starting to appear. That’s all folks!

Trading is about getting signals, setting up the risk/reward and taking the high expectancy trade. Some are wrong, some are right. Basing my trades on “what is going on in the news, media and South Africa wouldn’t be too smart”. I will follow the chart and take the trade if is signals!

]]> By: S http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16866 S Tue, 19 Feb 2008 16:32:06 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16866 Hi Chris, A lot of the exponential growth in platinum prices is due to the electricity crisis in South Africa (mines closing, little supply), but demand still being large. Until concrete evidence is given for a method to improve electricity supply, platinum shouldn't correct much. Hi Chris,
A lot of the exponential growth in platinum prices is due to the electricity crisis in South Africa (mines closing, little supply), but demand still being large. Until concrete evidence is given for a method to improve electricity supply, platinum shouldn’t correct much.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16860 Chris Tue, 19 Feb 2008 14:07:13 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16860 D, I don't understand the question/ statement. The PTR trade worked beautifully the second time it was put on. It was a loss the first time but a small one I should add. D,
I don’t understand the question/ statement. The PTR trade worked beautifully the second time it was put on. It was a loss the first time but a small one I should add.

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16859 Chris Tue, 19 Feb 2008 14:04:38 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16859 Eric, I can’t answer your question because I just don’t know. I assume large volume spikes are generated by the large investors: institutional investors that can move markets. Most small time speculators ignore platinum but not all. Besides, they can’t move the market anyway. Guys and gals like this (me) can only trade the trends the bigger boys set. Eric,
I can’t answer your question because I just don’t know. I assume large volume spikes are generated by the large investors: institutional investors that can move markets.

Most small time speculators ignore platinum but not all. Besides, they can’t move the market anyway. Guys and gals like this (me) can only trade the trends the bigger boys set.

]]> By: D http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16858 D Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:51:32 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16858 The PTR comparison is educational - as you observed, you were early - and there is no way to pick the top in real time. PTR gained over 40% since you highlighted it, and is now down 20% from the price at the time of your post. Is the market not interesting enough without searching for low risk/reward scenarios like this? The PTR comparison is educational – as you observed, you were early – and there is no way to pick the top in real time. PTR gained over 40% since you highlighted it, and is now down 20% from the price at the time of your post.

Is the market not interesting enough without searching for low risk/reward scenarios like this?

]]> By: Chris http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/comment-page-1/#comment-16857 Chris Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:49:45 +0000 http://www.chrisperruna.com/2008/02/18/platinum-climax-top/#comment-16857 JM, Volume is not available on these charts, not from my stockcharts service. I’ll check my broker software to see if I can get a read. The Clemens stuff is funny. The whole thing is a joke. Why is congress wasting our tax dollars? JM,
Volume is not available on these charts, not from my stockcharts service. I’ll check my broker software to see if I can get a read.

The Clemens stuff is funny. The whole thing is a joke. Why is congress wasting our tax dollars?

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