Billion Dollar Salary

Fresh off of listening to When Genius Failed and Liar’s Poker, those stories of quick and great fortunes from the 1980’s and 1990’s now seem like pocket change when compared to the hedge fund managers of today. Compensations have been dipping into the billion dollar range for the past few years but the latest round of wealth has never been so astonishing.

To put this into perspective, the top hedge fund manger last year earned 61,157 times more money than the average American family ($3.7 billion versus $60,500). He averaged $422,374 per hour, every hour for 365 consecutive days (more than $7,000 per minute).

Take a look, I have always been intrigued by these “masters of the universe” compensation packages: 2006: Hedge Funds - Richest of the Rich

Wall Street Winners Get Billion-Dollar Paydays
By JENNY ANDERSON, Published: April 16, 2008

Hedge fund managers, those masters of a secretive, sometimes volatile financial universe, are making money on a scale that once seemed unimaginable, even in Wall Street’s rarefied realms.

The richest hedge fund managers keep getting richer — fast. To make it into the top 25 of Alpha’s list, the industry standard for hedge fund pay, a manager needed to earn at least $360 million last year, more than 18 times the amount in 2002. The median American family, by contrast, earned $60,500 last year.

Institutional Investor
By Stephen Taub, Posted April 15, 2008

  • Five of the managers on this year’s list each made more in 2007 than the $1.2 billion that JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to pay for the almost failed 85-year-old Bear Stearns Cos.
  • When we published our inaugural list, in 2002, Soros led the way with $700 million, a showing that this year would have put him at No. 9. Back then it took $30 million to crack the top 25; this year, $360 million.
  • The grand total earned by the top 25 in our 2003 ranking, almost $2.8 billion, was less than what any of the top three managers made this year and less than one fifth of what the top ten made altogether ($16.1 billion).
  • Though we doubled the size of our list from 25 to 50 this year, longtime New York–based star managers Mark Kingdon of Kingdon Capital Management and Raj Rajaratnam of Galleon Group both miss the cut, despite each making about $200 million. This year’s minimum: $210 million.

Bringing home more than a billion in 2007: Five hedge fund managers rake it in
By Peter Cohan, Posted April 18, 2008

  • John Paulson (Paulson & Co.) — 2007 earnings: $3.7 billion. Beginning in 2005, Paulson made huge bets on the decline in value of securities backed by subprime mortgages
  • George Soros (Soros Fund Management) — 2007 earnings: $2.9 billion. Soros’ $17 billion flagship Quantum Endowment fund racked up a 31.7% return in 2007, its best annual showing since the high-tech implosion at the start of this decade. Soros’ $2.9 billion payday comes almost entirely from his personal stake in the fund (which he no longer manages). I don’t know how he made that 31.7% return.
  • James Simons (Renaissance Technology) — 2007 earnings: $2.8 billion. Simons, a mathematician and former Defense Department code breaker, uses complex computer models to trade.
  • Philip Falcone (Harbinger Capital Partners) — 2007 earnings: $1.7 billion. Like Paulson, Falcone placed a winning bet against the mortgage market. He pulled in returns of 117% after fees in 2007.
  • Kenneth Griffin (Citadel Investment Corp.) — 2007 earnings: $1.5 billion. Griffin manages $20 billion and is a big information technology innovator that trades derivatives. equity securities. and listed options and buys distressed assets at a discount. For example, In late 2007 a Citadel-led group put $2.55 billion into struggling E*Trade Financial Corp., (NASDAQ: ETFC), the U.S.’s fourth-largest discount brokerage.

Titan Machinery (TITN)

Stock of the Day
Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)
Friday’s Closing Price: TITN - $23.97

Sector: Retail
Industry: Retail/ Wholesale Building Products
52-week Price: $9.18 - $24.09

February 25, 2008: TITN - $19.70

Three stocks are catching my eye while making multiple screens over the past couple of weeks. MTL is up over 13% in less than two weeks since I highlighted it in a post titled Basic Materials (Oil) Stocks Making New Highs

Trading momentum is paying-off in the current market environment. Swing trading breakouts making new highs on volume at least 100% larger than the average is king. It’s working so pay attention and be smart while putting on trades. MTL is no longer a buy since it has become extended but TITN and RIO may be setting up for new 52-week highs.

April 14, 2008: TITN - $22.39

TITN – 22.39, solid young stock with an ideal entry point near $20 (looking good)

Fourth quarter earnings are scheduled for Monday, April 28, 2008. I would not be a buyer until after earnings are released (this event will shape my view on the stock and a potential position). Last quarter’s net income rose to $2.7 million, or 36 cents a share, from $0.8 million, or 13 cents a share, a year ago (sales increased 67% to $132 million).

My ideal accumulation area is between $19 and $22 with the best entry coming along the 50-day moving average, which seems to be providing support. The weekly chart is showing clear accumulation by institutional investors as most up-weeks are happening on larger volume while down-weeks are happening on lighter volume.

I will definitely be interested in a position since this stock has been making my nightly screens and scans since February. I have learned that the best stocks are the ones that continually make these scans (that is fact since I started investing with this method in 2001).

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $21.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $18.90
Number of Shares: 476
Position Size is $10,000
Risk is $2.10
Target is unknown (too little information)

Institutional Analysis:
Held By Institutions: 42.75%
Total Held by Institutions: 62
Money Market: 43
Mutual Fund: 18
Other: 1

New Positions: 60
Positions Sold: 0
Shares Held: 7.43M
Shares Held Previous Period: 0.13M

Shares Bought: 7.3M
Shares Sold: 0
Value of Shares Bought: $134.1M
Value of Shares Sold: $0

Top Institutional holders; Shares Held:
Systematic Financial Management, L.P.; 711,600
Trafelet Capital Management L.P.; 528,500
Heartland Value Fund; 350,000
Heartland Advisors Inc.; 350,000
Wasatch Advisors Inc.; 325,000

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $320.3M
Outstanding Shares: 13.4M
Float: 6.0M
P/E (TTM): 46.02x
PEG Ratio: 2.09x
EPS Growth (MRQ): 229.23%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 66.99%
3-Yr Earnings Rate: 54%
3-Yr Sales Rate: 34%

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Weekend Reading

I just finished listening to the audio books of Liar’s Poker and When Genius Failed. Fascinating stories if you ask me. I don’t know why it took me so long to read/ listen to both of these books.

Per Wikipedia:
When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management tells the story of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), an American hedge fund which commanded more than $100 billion in assets at its height. Among LTCM’s principals were several former university professors, including two Nobel Prize-winning economists.

Between 1994 and 1998 the fund showed a return on investment of more than 40% per annum. However, its enormously leveraged gamble with various forms of arbitrage involving more than $1 trillion dollars went bad, and in one month, LTCM lost $1.9 billion.

Per Wikipedia:
Liar’s Poker is a non-fiction, semi-autobiographical book by Michael Lewis describing the author’s experiences as a bond salesman on Wall Street during the late 1980s. First published in 1989, it is considered one of the books that define Wall Street during the 1980s, along with Barbarians at the Gate and the fictional The Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe.

Many of the same characters that show up in When Genius Failed were first mentioned in Liar’s Poker while working for Salomon Brothers in the 1970’s and 1980’s (John Meriwether being the prime character in both books).

I highly recommend both books for the exciting stories they tell rather than any trading knowledge that you would gather.

For a fictional look at this era on Wall Street, I highly recommend The Bonfire of the Vanities by Tom Wolfe.

Leucadia National Corp (LUK)

I am going to start an occasional monthly post that highlights a stock that falls within the definition of a value stock but acts more like a growth stock. Berkshire Hathaway could be the ideal pick for the debut of this type of research but I am going to start with a company that structures itself in a similar fashion, Leucadia National Corporation (LUK).

I will also be looking into stocks such as BRK/A, SHLD, BAM and some of the recent banking stocks that may be undervalued (now and in the near future).

Value Stock of the Month
Leucadia National Corp. (LUK)
Wednesday’s Closing Price: LUK - $54.10

Sector: Financials
Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings
52-week Price: $30.01 - $54.10

041608_luk_wkly.png

Leucadia is a diversified holding company that has subsidiaries engaged in manufacturing, real estate, medical product development, gaming entertainment, mining, and energy. Does this remind you of Berkshire? Leucadia is known, by some, as a “mini Berkshire Hathaway” with an average annual return of over 22%.

By the way, BRK/A is currently trading along the 200-d m.a. for the first time since last summer ($110k per share). It closed today at $129,475 after reaching a 52-week high of $151,600 in December (a 14% slide). Chart at bottom of blog post.

Leucadia executives Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg each own about 13% of Leucadia’s shares and practice a methodology similar to that of Warren Buffett. A $10,000 investment 5 years ago in LUK is worth $43,029 today.

Leucadia has a strong record of stock market performance due to its strategy of finding assets and companies that are out of favor or troubled and are therefore selling at a discount to their inherent value.

The stock just made a new 52-week high after using the 200-d m.a. as support while giving us a 10-week/30-week moving average crossover to the upside. My ideal accumulation area is near (slightly above or slightly below) the 200-day moving average (currently near $46). In hindsight, late 2006 and early 2007 was the “true’ ideal time to buy before the latest run. However, I should have listened to my old friend Kevin Pickell and grabbed shares years ago.

I was completely off on my timing of SHLD back in May 2007 so I may not be that bright when it comes to value companies but it’s time to start a new portfolio for my family that isn’t so young/fast time growth oriented (especially when people are running scared). SHLD will be my next value stock to research as it looks to be entering an area where accumulation is appealing.

041608_luk_wkly.png

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $45 (low $40 range is better)
Risk is set at 3.0% of total portfolio or $3,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 25% or $33.75
Number of Shares: 267
Position Size is $12,000
Risk is $11.25
Target is not material (value play)

*Notice the unusually large stop loss and risk versus trading a growth stock.*

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SandRidge Energy (SD)

I screened a stock on Monday named SandRidge Energy (SD) in a post titled, My Latest Stock Watchlist and noted that it made just about every screen I ran over the weekend. I looked back at scans from earlier in the year and it did make a few of them but didn’t grab my attention until now.

SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)

041607_sd_wkly.png

Stock of the Day
Sandridge Energy Inc. (SD)
Monday’s Closing Price: YGE - $44.38

Sector: Oil & Gas
Industry: Oil and Gas Production
52-week Price: $28.50 - $45.40

SandRidge is an independent natural gas and oil company with its principal focus on exploration, development and production activities. The Company also owns and operates drilling rigs and a related oil field services company with focus on exploration and exploitation of its significant holdings in West Texas. SandRidge operates in four segments: exploration and production, drilling and oil field services, midstream gas services and other.

The stock recently logged a new all-time high on increasing volume as it broke-out above the ideal entry area of $41.15. Unfortunately for me, it broke out during the week of my vacation (and return). I can’t say that I would have bought shares but I am interested now. I understand that crude is selling at all-time highs and some people are calling for a top but I am not about to listen to them. Money is still to be made in this industry. By the way, SandRidge is in the #1 rated industry group as produced by Investor’s Business Daily.

Net income was 137% higher than a year ago (3rd quarter) with revenue increasing by 71% during the same time period. Natural gas and crude-oil production jumped nearly five-fold. Shares closed at $31.20 ahead of the 3rd quarter report; it has since given investors a 40%+ gain in a few months.

SD is starting to outperform a few of the top stocks in the top rated industry group, something I do make note of. For example, SD is up 24% YTD as the industry groups as a whole is up 18% YTD. As you will notice, SD shares company with some very respectable names (stocks).

Sister Stocks (Top Rated Industry by IBD):
Range Resources Corp - RRC
Continental Res Inc. - CLR
Quicksilver Resources - KWK
Bois D’Arc Energy LLC - BDE
Petrohawk Energy Corp - HK

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $41.15
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $37.04 (breathing room to $36 is okay)
Number of Shares: 243
Position Size is $10,000
Risk is $4.12
Target is $55+ (based on future growth)
Reward-to-Risk is 3.36-to-1 with ideal entry; less with current price

Continue reading to see the impressive institutional numbers, general fundamental numbers and basic technical analysis that make this stock stand above other recent IPO’s. Net income, revenue, earnings and industry (global) growth make this an ideal stock for my watchlist. I am looking for young companies with increasing earnings and sales.

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