Comments on: Stock Bias Test

By: andrew

andrew — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 13:50:41 +0000

Buy: 1-3-4
short: 2

By: chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Stock Bias Test Results

chrisperruna.com » Blog Archive » Stock Bias Test Results — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:30:28 +0000

[...] ran a post on Friday titled, Stock Bias Test, which has become one of the more popular pages on my site in only a few days. My site doesn’t [...]

By: Spot

Spot — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 00:22:42 +0000

I like #1, being accumulated, holding price, no resistance. I don’t really like the others. Maybe #2 if some volume on a bounce off the 40 day average.
Using stops at 6%

By: Geoff C.

Geoff C. — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 00:05:38 +0000

Note to moderator – I typed up that last comment like I was half in the bag – can you reject it and post this instead please?

Based on those charts, I wouldn’t buy any of them.

#1 looks ready to roll over, it is making new highs on low volume after a long advance
#2 is dropping on huge volume, recently reversed off a new high
#3 is forming a nice little cup, but there is no volume in the up weeks
#4 is ugly too, big volume selling recently

I’m sure some of these ended up being great buys, but based on what is shown in the current charts I wouldn’t go near any of them

By: Edward Kim

Edward Kim — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:11:37 +0000

I think it is odd that no one is tremendously bullish on #3. I like the consolidation and break.

#4 looks good too – lot of volume on every bottom.

By: traderR

traderR — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 19:39:04 +0000

#1 I’d buy if support was shown on an intraday basis – on the 30 and 60 min charts. I’d especially pay attention to how it reacted compared to the overall market, i.e. if it holds up well while the general market is going down or sideways on the intraday basis then it’s a definite buy. If it’s showing weakness along with the market or more than the market then on the intraday charts… then stay on the side lines. My preferred buy in point would have been 3 weeks ago on the breakout from the 2 weeks of consolidation.

#2 I’d short if the current support line is broken, and the intraday 30/60 min charts show as much or more weakness than the overall market. I’d keep a tight leash on this position, probably exit at first opportunity.

I don’t believe I’d touch #3 or #4 as I’d feel like I was trying to pick the top or bottom respectively.

By: yo

yo — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 17:53:10 +0000

Some famous investor said to buy a stock that goes up. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.

By: Steven Mac

Steven Mac — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 15:30:50 +0000

While the exercise is based upon price & volume alone or techincal aspects, for the record I wouldn’t move into a position unless I can see at least:

1) Risk-to-Reward.
2) RS Strength
3) Industry Group/Sister Stock Information
4) Fundamentals on Ownership
5) Overall Market Direction Factor

But, if I had to make a decision:

Number 1 – Too extended from the 40 MA. I would need it to come back closer in for a buy. Overall looks good – just need a proper buy point for protection. Has a good long term trend.
Number 2 – Large sell on above average volume (red flag #1)
Number 3- Too choppy to consider – need to see a more defined pattern.
Number 4- If I look at this from 152 with retrace back to 170 resistance, the most I can count on is 1.5 R or 11.84% – not worth it to me for the risk.

By: Tony

Tony — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 02:58:26 +0000

Exactly the same as Craig.

1: made & held new high, buy.

2: big volume, wait for retracement nearer to 40MA, then buy

3: maybe a triple top, short play?…but dont like to go contra-trend. Watch.

4: at strong support, buy the bounce

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 01:01:19 +0000

Yeah I agree with Alex and his analysis as well. My only reservation is that I’m not seeing any convincing accumulation.