Stock Screen for Tuesday 6-17-08

Today’s screens give us an interesting mix of stocks that were higher on above average volume. I was specifically looking for stocks that were up at least 1% and had volume of at least 50% larger than the average. Several names, such as AAP, ABFS, ACM, EEP, ERES, FDS, GDI, IPHS, NDSN, OMI, PQ, TEVA, TITN, TOT and VIT, showed up on multiple screens. I will admit that not every one of these stocks look appealing after viewing the charts.

TITN, Titan Machinery (made three screens) was up almost 11% on volume 509% larger than the average closing at a new all-time high. The stock is now up 30% since the original analysis on April 21, 2008 at $23.97 (the ideal trade setup was noted at $21.00 which the stock did drop down to). A buy on a move back above $21 would give you a current gain of 47%.

Vanceinfo Technologies (VIT) is a stock that I noticed for the first time today as it was up 3.37% on volume 122% larger than average. VIT made the IPO screen and interesting stocks within 15% of a new high screen. The Chinese stock interests me as it has more than doubled in price over the past three months and is now flirting with a new all-time high.

This is exactly how I dissect my screens each night – I look for stocks that are up more than 1% with volume at least 50% larger than the average. Stocks making multiple screens are viewed first but every chart is analyzed.

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Stock Screen for 6-16-08

The stocks presented on the screens today are described in detail in the two links below:

Stock Featured Today:
(LNN) Lindsay Corp. – 125.82, The stock is up about 400% over the past two years with 300% of that move taking place over the past twelve months. Not a bad stock as the company manufactures and sells automated agricultural irrigation systems that enhance or stabilize crop production while conserving water, energy, and labor.

Disclaimer: This is not a buy list; please do your own research and buy/ sell at your own risk!

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Stock Screen for 6-11-08

I may start a new feature that uploads my nightly stock screens which I did for my MarketStockWatch community back in 2004 to 2007. The excel sheet shows you what my screens are spitting back at me each night based on the specific parameters I run. Tonight (Wednesday night) is probably not the best night to do this since the market has been getting into trouble but what the hell. I am also using google docs for the first time on the blog and so far they seem great to use (I can’t stand Microsoft anymore – for anything)

The stocks present on the screens tonight are described in detail in the two links below:

Take a look and let me know what you think. I typically view the charts of each stock in the excel sheet below and narrow the list to 10 to 20 stocks that I would like to keep an eye on (both long and short). I do this every night and look for patterns or trends; stocks that continue to appear on multiple screens and show-up on consecutive days. That is when I calculate risk/reward setups and enter new positions. These screens give me the stocks I highlight in my “Stock of the Day” posts and my Daily Screen “Stocks”.

I will highlight and expand analysis on the stocks that do interest me going forward as I did with my equity research website.

For example: Do you notice that (TITN) Titan Machinery appears on several of the screens I ran tonight? That is why it is clearly on my watchlist. It should already be in my portfolio but that’s a story for another day.

TITN – Titan Machinery Inc.

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China Architectural Engineering (CAEI)

Stock of the Day
China Architectural Engineering, Inc.
Wednesday’s Closing Price: CAEI – $10.75

Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: General Contractor
52-week Price: $4.75 – $27.25

June 6, 2008 Business Wire:

“China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (CAE) (AMEX:RCH), a leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of high-end building envelope systems, today announced that the Company will ring the opening bell at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City’s Times Square on Thursday, June 12, 2008 at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The Company will commence trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “CAEI” on June 10, 2008.”

Although the company has “China” in its name, 45% of its revenue comes from Australia, Dubai, Qatar, the U.S. and Europe. Business week noted that growth should last well beyond the Olympic games this year because of robust orders in foreign markets.

The company’s order backlog is said to be at $100 million or 1/5th of its current market cap, a nice card to have up its sleeve in today’s world market.

The gap-up on the chart in May on huge volume concerns me when attempting to establish a solid risk/ reward trade strategy. I would like to see the gap fill prior to entering a position but I do see support along the 50-d m.a. or even $8 per share. I am going to set-up the “ideal trade” using the current moving average so we can cover a potential pull-back to the gap-up area noted on the charts.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $7.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 12% or $6.16 ($6.00 area)
Number of Shares: 1,190
Position Size is $8,334
Risk is $0.84
Target is $13 for a 7-to-1 risk/reward ratio

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $547M
Outstanding Shares: 51.1M
EPS Growth (MRQ): 178%
EPS Growth (TTM): 135%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 76%
Revenue Growth (TTM): 50%

Earnings per Share (EPS):
$0.50 Next year, +39%; High estimate $0.64, +77%
$0.36 current year, +71%
$0.21 last year, +50%
$0.14 previous year

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Stock Bias Test Results

I ran a post on Friday titled, Stock Bias Test, which has become one of the more popular pages on my site in only a few days. My site doesn’t generate a large number of comments per blog post, maybe 2 to 4 per post on average, but this topic got more than 30 people to respond (a huge success in my “comments world”). I guess I do a poor job in sparking conversation based on what I write.

Anyway, everyone seemed to like the exercise of analyzing the charts without a ticker symbol or frame of time.

I asked a few questions:

  • Which stock would you buy below based on the nameless & dateless charts? (listed 1,2,3,4)
  • How would you rank them in order of technical characteristics?
  • Would you avoid buying of any of the stocks below based on price and volume?
  • Would you short any of the stocks below?

Overall, many of you struck out and did not get the analysis right but I do have to say a that a few of you did a wonderful job.

The best response in the comments that I could find clearly comes from Alex who runs a blog on his google pages.
He nailed every chart (I wonder if he figured them out) as a few of you did.

#1 is the strongest buy. The last candle on #1 sets the high of the chart, therefore it’s moving into uncharted terrritory with no overhead sellers. Also, the last dip down to the 40-period line was on low and decreasing volume, thus few sellers there. Then it spiked off the 40-period MA with strong volume. Then it continued the uptrend for 5 candles.
#3 would be my second strongest buy for similar reasons, but I’d like to see what the next few candles do.
#2 & #4 I would leave alone because of the heavy selling volume on the last dips. But I wouldn’t short them because they are still above the 40-day MA.

I had to hide Aurelien’s answers for chart #3 as he guessed it: AAPL.

Steven Mac may have summed up the approach to the analysis the best by saying:

While the exercise is based upon price & volume alone or techincal aspects, for the record I wouldn’t move into a position unless I can see at least:

1) Risk-to-Reward.
2) RS Strength
3) Industry Group/Sister Stock Information
4) Fundamentals on Ownership
5) Overall Market Direction Factor

Overall – it was a great exercise and a wonderful success. I plan to do more of these in the future (possibly bi-weekly if everyone stays interested).

The original snapshots of the charts I uploaded on Friday are highlighted in blue (on the charts below). As you can see, #1 (BIDU) and #3 (AAPL) were super successful and #2 (MS) and #4 (BSC) broke down.

Proper risk/ reward setups and sell rules would have saved you from losing large amounts of money in MS and BSC so don’t worry if you got them wrong. Worry if you got it wrong and then avoided selling a clear loser.

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