Below are the latest comments I have been making through StockTwits and Twitter.

• cperruna@fortune8 – $V entry is $61.50 , 12% stop (just below last dip). Risk is $7.38; reward long term is 5.2x at $100 and 3.86x at $90.less than 5 seconds ago from web in reply to fortune8
• $CFL – $27.50, new all time high for young stock. Alarms always up in poor economy; break-ins up at same time.1 minute ago from StockTwits
• $V – $60.38, technically, the pivot point is $61.50. All that is left is for the 50d to move above 200d – then look for $60-$100 move.6 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $STAR – $18.78, ready to make new 52-wk high. Closed Friday up 18% on volume 301% above ave. Watch it – trender12 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $RVBD – 17.81, up 15% last week on heavy volume. 50d moved above 200d ma (positive). Quadruple top breakout! About to challenge 52-wk high15 minutes ago from StockTwits
• RT @KeithShepard Global Warming Delusions (http://bit.ly/rWewn) “The evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin.about 23 hours ago from web
• $MDAS – $16.79, up 4.81% on volume 218% larger than ave. Looks like it is ready to move. 50d above 200d is all that’s left for long term7:29 PM Apr 23rd from StockTwits
• Rough day for longs: Only 308 advancing issues, the the third fewest on NYSE in 2009. 2,823 decliners, 4th highest total in ’09 $$11:03 PM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?).9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $TNDM – $26.81, watch this one, volume exploding but it is extended. I will grab shares at 50-d ma if given the chance.9:04 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CXO – $27.70, let’s see if 50d can recover 200d. Buy with strong move above $29 (triple top breakout on P&F).8:59 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CTCT – $18.36, blasted above 200d last week on above ave volume. Entry was $17.50 on P&F charts. Keep an eye on it.8:58 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $FRPT – $7.67, up more than 10% on above ave volume. Up 8% since Monday’s mention. Like I said – $14 is next long term resistance1:46 PM Apr 16th from StockTwits
• $V – $58.33, challenging the 200d ma. Expect struggle here. Becomes long buy when 50d crosses above 200d ma. Will enter $60-$100 run10:37 PM Apr 14th from StockTwits

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Every once in a while you like to look back and review your notes to locate where your research was right and where it was wrong. The simple technique of following stock market leaders and the NH-NL ratio nailed the period of time when the market transitioned from an up-trend to churning to the “Big Decline”. We nailed it here on this blog and every reader was prepared for the imminent decline. No one can dispute that. Readers of this blog were told to move to cash to preserve capital in late 2007 and early 2008. Now, I am not talking about day traders but longer term traders or investors that work full time and do what I do.

The chart highlights in red where I was making the sell posts (the articles are listed below):

Anyway, I have been posting twits about the strengthening of the NH-NL ratio which is starting to tell me that the newest trend change is beginning. Yes, this is my first major blog post saying that my screens (market tools) are telling me to wake up because things are starting to change. It’s not time to jump in with both feet and buy every stock that’s up on above average volume but it’s time to sharpen the skills and be ready. We may look back and point to March and April of 2009 as the bottom of the market or at least the start of the changing trend.

We don’t have market leaders yet but when they appear, I will locate them, post up charts and talk about them nightly on twitter (twitter.com/cperruna). Too many stocks still have their 50-d moving averages below their longer term 200-d moving averages and new highs are still limited. However, new lows have dried up considerably and the NH-NL ratio has a moving average that is trending higher for about a month now. That’s the most sustainable trend for this ratio since the big decline started.

Stay tuned to the blog and my twits for follow-ups to my research on individual stocks and the overall trend.

In the meantime, take a look back at the numerous blog articles I posted in 2007and 2008 talking about a market decline, shorting stocks and selling in general. Learn from what the simple tools were telling us. I am far from a market genius and far from rich but I can make a few dollars following the leaders and the NH-NL ratio.

A Review of Articles Pointing to a Stock Market Decline in early 2008:

• May 23, 2008: Smelling Trouble
  

  The bottom line or point of today’s rant is the fact that I still feel that the market is headed for a decline or as I phrased it a couple weeks ago: The Big Decline (long term perspective of course).

• May 8, 2008: Market Distribution
  

  I originally started to point out market troubles back on March 14, 2008 in a post titled Snapshot Friday; I highlighted both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ with clear yellow shaded areas showing the 200-day moving averages pointing down for the first time since 2003 (that’s huge if you ask me).

• May 7, 2008: The Big Decline
  

  I am a positive person by nature and I prefer to buy stocks going up but I am starting to see several leading stocks struggle to hold new highs or fail to challenge recent highs. These patterns are familiar and they are suggesting that the recent bounce is the final stage before a possible market decline.

• January 23, 2008: Setups for Selling Stocks Short
  

  I wrote an article on October 15, 2007 titled How to Make Money Selling Short, precisely when the general market indexes were topping. I am not going to take full credit but subconsciously my charts were giving me signals that the market was showing the major red flags and signals of what we are seeing today.

A Review of Articles Talking about Selling, Profit Taking and Market Distribution in late 2007:

• 10/03/07: Is Shanghai a Nasdaq Déjà vu
  

  Well, the current two year rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index looks remarkably similar to the rise of the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s and the charts below explain better than I can!

• 10/04/07: A Technique for Profit Taking
  

  What do you do in a market like today when you have profits in multiple positions but you don’t want to give it all back? You want to continue to ride the winners but at the same time, you want to maintain the unrealized gains in your account. HOW?

• 10/12/07: Distribution Day
  

  This was the largest showing of volume in two months and is not healthy because it was pure distribution. It was only the second distribution day over the past month so we can’t call this a bear run but please be on the lookout for a possible correction of 5%-10%. Technology stocks led the decline as BIDU gave back 10% of its amazing run.

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This chart explains what I have been talking about on twitter.
Follow my nightly tweets at twitter.com/cperruna.

As I said in a recent response to a blog comment by Jeff: “The NH-NL ratio is showing some up-tick from the brutal beating it has taken recently. A positive shift will peak my interest. Not there yet.” I am keeping better watch lists because of the slow trend change in the chart below. We have a ways to go before we can start buying shares but very subtle changes are taking place.

Recent Tweets:

• The 10-d m.a for NYSE NH-NL ratio is now -3.4, highest it has been all year. Was -338.6 to start March & peaked at -478.5 six days later 35 minutes ago from StockTwits
• CXO – One to watch if this industry starts to move. Buy at 200d ma; 50d ma must cross above 200d – very positive. about 22 hours ago from StockTwits
• STAR – decent risk/reward to add shares near 200d ma. Keep an eye on accumulation vs. distribution (weekly). Short term target $18. about 23 hours ago from StockTwits
• V jumped into $57-$60 buy zone that I mentioned Tuesday. Resistance here at 200-d ma; 50-d ma still below 200-d ma – this must change 3:49 PM Apr 3rd from StockTwits

*Chart courtesy of DecisionPoint.com

I miss blogging but now you can follow my stock ideas and research on twitter (I use stocktwits to post the information). Due to time constraints that prohibit me from posting high quality blog analysis, I have decided to use the great technology of tweets to write my thoughts each night. I don’t believe in half-hearted blog posts so Twitter is a perfect compliment while I continue my daily blog hiatus.

My goal is to target a few stock ideas and/or quick research snapshots that are crossing my screens. These are the same ideas that I log in my own notebook for potential trades or future reference. Now I can share my ideas again and not take up too much time formatting a blog post.

Follow me here:

twitter.com/cperruna

Here’s a sample of the tweets I have listed over the past few nights:

• We had 12 new highs and 2 new lows on the NYSE today – compare that to 3 NH’s and 705 NL’s on 3/3/09 – the trend is changing $$ – less than 20 seconds ago from StockTwits
• RVBD – nice recovery of the 200-d m.a. – longer term play with healthy market. Short term target is $18 (52-wk high area)…8 minutes ago from StockTwits
• APEI - triple top breakout on point & figure above $45 (short term buy). 50-d ma. must cross above 200-d m.a. before longer term buy…15 minutes ago from StockTwits
• VMW up on volume 135% larger than average; trading in range, $20 to $27 – short term buy above $27. 200-d MA may provide resistance…7:58 PM Apr 1st from StockTwits
• V in a trading range, EPS still solid, RS steady – $57-$60 is buy zone; it goes to $100 when the market moves but when is that…7:07 PM Mar 31st from StockTwits
• HTS is an interesting young stock, decent chart, volume up 180% today, not a buy yet (especially in this market)…6:52 PM Mar 31st from StockTwits
• DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup…8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

The charts of the stocks covered so far are listed below. So sign up for twitter and join me as I talk stocks. You can get it on your phone, facebook and many other places.

twitter.com/cperruna

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