Archives for May 2009

Visa Cup with Handle

Visa (V), $65.75: As I mentioned on Twitter last week, the stock is building a cup with handle pattern. A down-sloping handle is currently forming with a pivot point breakout at $68.55. I will be looking to add shares on a breakout. FYI: I currently own shares from 2008.

052509_v_wkly

See the post Visa, from December 17, 2008 for further details:

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

  • $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
  • Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
  • VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
  • VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
  • VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

  • Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
  • Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Let’s see what happens. The gov’t here in the US scares me these days when it comes to credit cards so pay attention to what they are doing. I wish they would just butt-out and go back to doing what they are meant to do.

NH NL picks Market Tops and Bottoms

Do you really want to know how to pick market tops and bottoms? Really?

Well, you don’t need a crystal ball, you don’t need any Wall Street guru’s, you certainly don’t need fancy computer software and you can simply ignore the talking heads. It’s that easy. Maybe we won’t pick absolute tops and bottoms but we can identify trends as they begin to develop.

You just need to follow the action among the individual stocks in the market! Learn to focus on the number of stocks making new highs versus the number of stocks making new lows. It’s been the true crystal ball in my method since I started to turn a consistent profit in 2002. It’s the backbone of my trend following methods.

The NH-NL Differential is simply the number of stocks making new highs minus the number of stocks making new lows.

051009_2009_nas_nhnl

I follow the progress of stocks making new highs and new lows on the NASDAQ and NYSE and pay specific attention to turning points in the differential. I am not so interested in the extreme highs or lows of the ratio but rather changes in trend from positive to negative and negative to positive over a period of time.

The yearly Nasdaq New Highs and New Lows (Differential) are captured in my charts below, dating back 10 years. With many market pundits (or talking heads) saying that we may have reached a bottom, I felt it was time to do some homework and study the past charts so we know what to look for in 2009. It is true that the trend seems to be changing but we aren’t quite there yet. Focus on 2002 and 2003 to get an idea of what we may see if this market decides to make a true up-trending run, one that’s sustainable.

Consistent Nasdaq readings above 100-200+ will be the official confirmation to grab and add shares for trend traders!

051009_2008_nas_nhnl

051009_2007_nas_nhnl

051009_2006_nas_nhnl

[Read more…]

Joseph Antonio Perruna

Little Joey has arrived: Born April 29, 2009; 7 lbs, 3 oz, 21 inches!
After 16 hours of labor and 41 hours of no sleep, mom and baby are doing wonderful!
Mom and dad finally got some sleep last night.

delivery

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