Trading DXO on Twitter

I have blogged and twittered about DXO for almost eight months now and nailed both the entry and exit points of the trade. I really nailed the exit (lock in gains) for the twitter community even though I sold earlier. I tweeted the day before and the day after the ETN topped and told everyone that it was a good idea to lock in gains “here”. Take a look back at the tweets and view the chart where I was making calls on DXO. See, twitter is valuable when people use it correctly.

7/11/09: DXO – $3.48, down more than 26% from sell calls. DXO gained more than 74% from my first twitter buy calls

Who says charts don’t work?

071109_dxo_daily

  • 7/6/09: $DXO – 3.90, down 18% since my sell tweets in June. 6/10 @ 4.67 & 6/12 @ $4.76. Always ignore analysts, never ignore charts! 10:04 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 7/6/09: RT 6/12/09 @cperruna $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices…charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 8:29 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 6/12/09: $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices but the charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 6:38 AM Jun 12th from StockTwits
  • 6/10/09: $DXO – $4.67, up 72% from 4/20 $2.72 twitter coverage. Lock in gains here, resistance above at 200d ma 11:18 PM Jun 10th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.21, talk about blast off above $3.75 breakout. Made nice profit but sold too soon, ignoring my own chart analysis. Entry is gone 12:00 PM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.03, it blasted past the $3.75 triple top breakout point, highlighted in this blog post, see P&F chart http://bit.ly/wTjX 9:07 AM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/26/09: $DXO – $3.79, cashing in profits. See April twits on DXO, buy at $2.72. 11:00 PM May 26th from StockTwits
  • 4/20/09: $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?). 9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
  • 4/6/09: $DXO – I am looking for the gap to fill down near $2.70; will grab short term shares between $2.50 – $2.70. Moving ave support at $2.55 8:26 PM Apr 6th from StockTwits
  • 3/30/09: $DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup 8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

2/09/09 Blog Post:

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most…

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal…the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or a breakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume.

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.

Oil Double Long ETN (DXO)

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

020809_dxo_wkly

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most. The official buy signal that we look for on this blog has not triggered so yes, I am playing with fire. I considered the position a “value play” in December and that is the truth but I also admit that I have not followed my traditional rules of entering a position.

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal. I did not get a signal to enter DXO but the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or abreakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume. Buyers and sellers are struggling to take control of the commodity as the economic turmoil attempts to give us some type of direction across all markets.

020809_dxo_pnf

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.

What is a point and figure chart? Click here to learn!

020809_dxo_daily

Dollar & Oil both Dropping

Headlines:

DOLLAR IN NEW SPIRAL…

…biggest one-day slide against euro

OPEC deepest oil cut to rescue prices…

YET PRICE TUMBLES BELOW $40 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE ’04…

Let the charts do the talking…

Dollar falls, Crude up

The US Dollar violated the 50-day moving average for the first time in five months while the Euro Dollar crossed back above its 50-day moving average during the same period of time. Crude oil was up 10% as it closed above $48 a barrel and the ETN I highlighted from last week is now up 30% from its low. I do own 1/3 of my position in DXO but I can’t say I caught it below $3. I highlighted the three investments last week in a post titled:

12/02/08: Dollars, T-Bonds and Crude Oil

I started to mention Oil as a possible value buy in November:
11/26/08: Oil a Value Buy?

Here’s what I was thinking:

I mentioned my idea last week: Crude Oil ETN’s. My wife and I have agreed to start purchasing a stake in crude oil investments, starting this week with a 25% purchase of our fully anticipated position (DXO is the instrument). The crude oil charts have not turned positive and I have not received any buy signals such as the ones I highlighted in the dollar earlier this year but I am viewing this more from a value perspective rather than technical. Maybe I will strikeout big time but I am swinging for it anyway.

Too many Middle East talking-heads want to cut production and raise the price of oil. Maybe I am extremely early to this “rebound/ bottom-picking game” but I can’t seem to reason how oil will stay low for long (talking years here, not a short term position).

It will be fun to see how this plays out.

Dollars, T-Bonds and Crude Oil

With such negativity in the market, I decided that I would search for any glimmer of hope, a small nugget of positivity. Well, it leads us to the US Dollar, Treasury Bond Funds and the Dow Jones US Water Index. Other than that, most, if not all charts are well below their major moving averages and are still heading south.

I am not interested in buying the T-bonds or the water index but the US dollar has been front and center in my portfolio for a while now. I started to jump on the dollar bandwagon (8/24/08: US Dollar Buy Signal and 12/17/07: US Dollar Snapshot) prior to its bottom in early 2008 and I am now interested in jumping on another train.

I mentioned my idea last week: Crude Oil ETN’s. My wife and I have agreed to start purchasing a stake in crude oil investments, starting this week with a 25% purchase of our fully anticipated position (DXO is the instrument). The crude oil charts have not turned positive and I have not received any buy signals such as the ones I highlighted in the dollar earlier this year but I am viewing this more from a value perspective rather than technical. Maybe I will strikeout big time but I am swinging for it anyway.

Too many Middle East talking-heads want to cut production and raise the price of oil. Maybe I am extremely early to this “rebound/ bottom-picking game” but I can’t seem to reason how oil will stay low for long (talking years here, not a short term position).

Saudi Arabia’s king says the price of oil should be $75 a barrel, much higher than it is now, but his oil minister indicated Saturday that no measures will likely be taken until OPEC meets again next month.

“We believe the fair price for oil is $75 a barrel,” he said, without saying how the price could be raised.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said on Friday that 80 dollars a barrel is a “reasonable” price for oil and that his country would support any OPEC decision to cut output.

“A reasonable price for oil is 80 dollars a barrel,” said Shahristani on arrival in Cairo to attend a consultative meeting by the OPEC cartel to study slumping crude prices.

“We have to make sure that produced oil is used for consumption and not for storing.”