chrisperruna.com» Portfolio

Visa (V)

Chris — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:07:15 +0000

Visa
It’s Everywhere You Want To Be

Visa. Love every day. (Europe)
Visa. All it takes (Asia-Pacific campaign)
Visa. All you need. (Canada)
Wherever it takes you, the future takes Visa (Europe)

Visa is the only growth stock that I decided to keep in my portfolio over the past several months. Countless people wrote to me asking “why” I was still holding the stock after I mentioned it in False Markets in October, even though it had violated the 50-d moving average and was trending down. I didn’t have a technical answer and I honestly wasn’t following any rules. I fell victim to a greater power that told me to hold, regardless of everything else. Technically speaking, it was and still is the wrong thing to do and goes against all sell rules on this blog.

My reasons were more fundamental than technical, especially due to what was happening on the street. I explained my reasons in both of these posts:

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

$1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!

Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards

VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)

VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007

VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment

Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Now, Visa is back above the 50-d m.a. but something is still wrong, volume is lacking on the upside. I want to see a surge in volume and I also want to see the govenment to butt-out. Banks may fail but Visa is not the one on the hook. I could be playing this all wrong and as I have already said, I am not playing by the rules but I see Visa coming out on top after the skies clear. I am still long Visa.

Who knows, maybe it’s another lesson in a long line of lessons I thought I had already learned.

Watchlist and Stock Portfolio Update

Chris — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 15:07:39 +0000

Let’s start with the hottest stocks that have been on my watchlist over recent weeks:
CLR – Continental Resources Inc.,

Young Stocks Moving on Volume

“CLR – Continental Resources, $46.54, +43%”
My latest Stock Watchlist

“CLR – 38.38, yes, this stock is extended but I like it near $30 or the next base”
Highest Rated IPO’s

“CLR – Continental Resources Inc., $26.57
This is the first appearance of the stock on this blog as it has had a nice run from $15 to $28 in four months. The stock is extended but trending higher. An ideal entry is above the 50-d m.a. Set up a favorable risk-to-reward trade before entering”

SD – Sandridge Energy Inc.

Top Rated Stocks

“SD – 55.00, Sandridge Energy Inc., made another new all-time high this week and it continues to trend higher on increasing volume. A couple late day reversals to end the week sent up a red flag (minor at this point in time).”
Young Stocks Moving on Volume

“SD – Sandridge Energy Inc., $47.01, +30%”
My latest Stock Watchlist

“SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)”

GTLS – Chart Industries Inc.

Top Rated Stocks

“GTLS – 41.89, Chart Industries Inc. is trading near new all-time high territory as the trend is higher. A move above $43 will trigger a triple top breakout on the point and figure chart (a positive sign if it comes on heavy volume and without a reversal).”
Young Stocks Moving on Volume

“GTLS – Chart Industries, $41.05, +45%”
My latest Stock Watchlist

GTLS – 35.48, poor ending to the week but a buy near the 200-d m.a. is fine
Chris Perruna Stocks in Review 2007

“Listed are the thirty two covered stocks in alphabetical order:
BIDU, BKC, BX, CSH, DVR, EDU, FCSX, FSLR, GRMN, GROW, GTLS, HMIN, HWCC, ICON, JASO, JSDA, LDK, LOOP, MA, MFB, MPW, MR, OMTR, PRXI, PTR, ROCM, SHLD, SLW, SMOD, SNCR, SSRX, VMW”
Market Leaders!

“(GTLS) Chart Industries Inc. – Fresh IPO Ideas $32.45″
Leading CP Stocks

7. GTLS: 37%, $23.05 to $31.54, 6/13/07
Make Millions Trading IPOs

“GTLS has gained almost 35% while institutional sponsorship has increased 55%. The most attractive number of the group is the jump in shares held for GTLS which increased by 102%. Institutions bought 16 million more shares than they were selling for an 8-to-1 ratio. The value of shares bought closed just shy of $500 million while the value of shares sold was only $65 million. The stock looks good long term.”
Chart Industries (GTLS)

“GTLS was Featured in these posts in June 2007:
6/13/07: Fresh IPO Ideas, GTLS – Chart Industries Inc. – $23.05
6/20/07: Young Guns Taking Off, GTLS – $24.73″

TITN – Titan Machinery Inc.

Top Rated Stocks

“TITN – 24.30, Titan Machinery Inc. is still making new all-time highs but did run into some selling pressure near the $26 level. The trend is higher and I am holding until told otherwise by the charts.”
Portfolio Stocks on the Move
Portfolio Snapshot: Growth
Young Stocks Moving on Volume
Titan Machinery (TITN)

IPI – Intrepid Potash, Inc.

Intrepid Potash, Inc (IPI)

“Can Intrepid Potash (IPI) follow in the footsteps of Potash Corp. Saskatch, Inc. (POT)? I will not hesitate to jump on a trend if IPI starts to run higher because crowds are persistent and I don’t like to fight them.”

Current Portfolio Holdings – Growth:

(MA) – Mastercard, (V) – Visa, (JASO) – JA Solar Holdings, (GU) – Gushan Environmental Energy, (CPLA) – Capella Education Company

EDU, New Oriental Education & Technology Group: I sold my final shares last week based on price and volume at the 200-d moving average. Here’s a look at some of the more popular EDU posts on this blog over the past 16 months.

Portfolio Stocks on the Move

Chris — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:18:56 +0000

Today I cover four stocks that have been padding my portfolio over the past several weeks (months if we narrow it to EDU and JASO). Both EDU and JASO could be in my portfolio for many more months to come based on their fundamental and technical characteristics. This is in addition to the speculation lead-up to the Olympics in China.

JASO – 24.83, JA Solar Holdings is currently trading in the handle portion of a cup with handle base (one of the prime setups in the CANSLIM philosophy).

EDU – 80.08, New Oriental Education & Technology Group has come a long way since its correction down to the mid-$40 range. It closed above $80 on Friday and is now back within 15% of a new all-time high.

GU – 17.00, Gushan Environmental blasted 22.39% higher last week on above average volume as it closed at a new all time high.

TITN – 23.52, Titan Machinery is starting to flirt with all-time highs as volume is increasing during accumulation weeks

Portfolio Snapshot: Growth

Chris — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:48:10 +0000

I am going to disclose the holdings in my growth portfolio because I have been receiving questions as to what I am currently investing in (during the so-called bear environment). Readers ask what I actually own and want to know why I present stocks that I do not own.

So, to answer some of these questions and requests:

I will disclose my growth portfolio which consists of stocks that I anticipate will provide a rate of return greater than the general market averages and 90% of all listed stocks. I have owned shares in a couple of these stocks for a lengthy period of time. However, I will note that the size of the positions in MA, JASO and EDU have changed just as the market environment has changed. I have both added-to and sold-out of shares over the past 6-12 months.
This blog is treated as an educational and equity research site. I am providing a portion of my own research in public while trying to help others based on the knowledge I have accumulated in the market. I research and study hundreds of stocks every week but I only buy a handful over the course of a year.

Anyway, the six stocks below are all currently positions in an account I consider my growth portfolio (stocks can be held from a few weeks to a year). This account buys young innovative growth stocks that have the potential to provide returns greater than the vast majority of the equity market. It’s a long portfolio. I have other portfolios that buy options, ETF’s, value plays and short from time to time but this portfolio most closely resembles my research and writing style on chrisperruna.com.

If you are wondering about this year’s losing trades (closed trades), most of them were sold prior to leaving for Mexico in late March (and I had several across the portfolios).

I am disclosing the positions because I am reevaluating the holdings while looking for new potential buys. Visa is the latest purchase and is up over 16% since accumulating my first batch of shares. I would like to buy additional shares in Visa once I determine how to reallocate the funds within the portfolio. Some new faces are popping up on my research scans and may be worthy of consideration versus the longer holdings and rebound plays.

Portfolio Snapshot: Growth Stocks

CPLA – 63.18, Capella Education; I bough this stock as a rebound play upon returning from my trip in Mexico. I highlighted it as a possible $60-$100 play back in February and have been watching it ever since. It will stay in the portfolio as long as it holds at or above the 200-d m.a.
MA – 239.55, Mastercard; One of the older positions in my portfolio, MA is still giving me gains as it continues to trend higher. The ultimate mercy point or sell signal is a violation of the 200-d m.a. I will not liquidate the entire position until it drops below the 200-d m.a. on heavy sell-off volume.
JASO – 23.73, JA Solar Holdings; A long time holding in this portfolio but it is a stock that I liquidated before opening a new position in recent weeks. The latest trade was based on a momentum signal rather than last year’s trend buying signal. I like the sector but it may be exhausting so I would like to find a new place to possibly park the money.
EDU – 73.55, New Oriental Education & Technology Group; I love the products and services this company offers. It teaches English to Chinese students (children and adults). The demand for this market is huge and EDU is at the forefront. I recently added new shares as this stock may have staying power based on its offerings and market. I am looking for a run towards $100 and a test of new highs.
V – 72.30, Visa; I bought shares both before and after my vacation and I am hungry for more. Maybe I am crazy but the 0% credit card balance transfer/ purchase offers are pouring into my mailbox every day. I have always received these offers but it seems it has picked up in recent months. People are going to charge since their piggy-bank houses are no longer an option. Well, I didn’t base my buy on that assumption but it’s not a bad indicator.
GU – 14.35, Gushan Environmental Energy; By far the riskiest stock in my portfolio in terms of name and perceived potential. Actual risk is capped to 1% of total equity but I will sell this sucker prior to a full loss if it starts to drop. I have already sold a position from earlier in the year when it turned against me but felt the need to jump back in for a potential longer term move. I don’t know if it will happen and wouldn’t be surprised if I was sold-out again; before the run I am anticipating based on my research.

So there you have it – my actual growth portfolio. I wish POT was in my portfolio in 2007 but I missed that boat. Maybe IPI will become a solid momentum play. Some new stocks I am watching are TITN, IPI, SD, GTLS, PPO…among others that I can’t remember off the top of my head.

You may notice one thing: I buy the stocks I study the most and present on the blog.