I was doing some research last night and was reviewing the final MSW Index before closing the site for a new format. The MSW site closed in March and my final weekly analysis was done on 3/3/07. The MSW Index included a total of 21 stocks at the time with six of the stocks still around from 2006. Many new names were on the index with several of them highlighted here on the chrisperruna blog in 2007.

Click the Image below for the March 3, 2007 MSW Index PDF

Anyway, I was impressed with the results of the stocks listed on that final Index as I calculated their current gains/losses to date and their overall gains from the original date of coverage. Of the 21 stocks left on that final screen, seventeen of them are currently showing a gain with four of them in the red. Of the four in the red, I actually highlighted one of them as a short on this blog and would have removed it from the index had I continued to run the MSW subscription service (KNOT). Another of the red stocks is LVS which has also been cut to hold/sell in my book and was a superstar on the index in 2006. DTLK was the sole loser in this bunch as the position never worked.

The average gain of the seventeen stocks is 19% with the largest three month total going to ISE at 47%. JSDA was a close second at 46% and you must consider that the stock is far from the highs set in April. Overall, the top gainer from the initial coverage is ICE at 103% from its starting price of $73.69. The average gain from the initial coverage of each stock is 30%, about 5% higher than my target goal in my expectancy calculations.

Of the stocks that are currently up, JLL was my poorest analysis as I labeled it a sell on 3/3/07 when it was trading at $104.32. I initially started coverage when the stock was trading at $82.90 and liked what I saw but the action in March ruffled my feathers. This turned out to be the wrong call as the stock closed at $119.59 yesterday for a 15% gain since March and a total gain of 44% since the initial coverage.

Take a look at the MSW Index link above to see what I was researching at the time and then take a look at the chart in the image below to see how these stocks have performed over the past three months. I know we are in a strong up-trending market so results like these are not difficult to obtain but the win/loss percentage is still impressive for 21 stocks that have not been touched in three months. I don’t know what the MSW Index would look like today but I can assure you that several of these names would still be on the list.

As you know, I have been buying and researching new stocks such as:

• MA
• BIDU
• GROW
• HWCC
• SHLD
• MR
• EDU
• BKC
• PTR
• FCSX

The stocks listed below are all trading within 10% of the 200-day moving average and have been leaders over the past year. Fundamentals are better than the majority of the peers in their industry groups and the technicals show potential opportunities. Many of the possible opportunities will struggle if the market takes a turn for the worse so please understand the ‘M’ in CANSLIM.

They are not recommened buys so please do you own due diligence!
This screen is performed nightly looking for stocks that are trading higher within the set parameters. These include fundamentally sound stocks with increasing earnings, a gain during the day today and preferably a move on above average volume.

A Few Interesting Stocks within 10% of the 200-d m.a.:

• BIDU – 100.97, the recent $60-$100 candidate has corrected from highs near $134 to catch some support at the long term moving average. The point and figure chart suggests positive action if the stock holds support

  

• SHLD – 179.16, the stock is consolidating once again but my ideal entry would be closer to the 200-d m.a. near $165.

  

• DLLR – 25.39, the first correction to the 200-d m.a. since 2006. It will become an ideal trend buying opportunity if the support is held. Look for the RS line to reverse back to the up-side

  

• ANDE – 42.54, the stock is trading flat to slightly higher over the past few months. Any rebound could take the stock back towards $60 (a nice risk-to-reward ratio)

  

• CSH – 42.50, the recent superstar stock is finally touching the 200-d m.a. for the first time since 2005. Any support in this area is a solid trend buy

  

• HITT – 41.07, the stock is forming a basing pattern above the 200-d m.a. which shows some strength. The point and figure chart shows a negative trend forming but a move above $45 will reverse that outlook

  

• CRVL – 31.85, the stock made a tremendous run from $11 to $49 but has recently corrected to the 200-d m.a. near $30. I am not sure if this is a dead cat bounce but support in this area will signal a potential basing pattern and possible opportunity

  

• EZPW – 15.54, the stock has caught some support three times over the past two months at the 200-d m.a. but volume has been weak. Possibly a cup or saucer shaped pattern above the long term average

  

Ticker Sense, the blog run by Birinyi Associates, conducted a year end survey that looks towards the future. It’s titled the “Financial Blogger Outlook” and included 29 of the web’s most prominent financial bloggers (in their opinion of course). They asked a number of questions about the closing prices of the major indexes, the best and worst performing sectors, the top stock picks for 2007 and more.

I was reluctant to participate because predictions don’t mean a damn thing in this business but I did it for fun. I was probably the last blogger to submit my survey and I belive that I actually missed the deadline because I was going to skip the “prediction business”. However, I’ll look back on what I wrote at this time next year and will assure you that my predictions won’t guide my trading one bit.

So, what was my forecast?
Why use the word forecast? Because this word is always associated with the weather and weathermen are typically wrong. Stocks predictors can be lumped into the same stereotype because they are usually wrong too.

I predicted that the major indexes would be slightly lower at the end of 2007.
I predicted that energy and financials would be the top performing sectors.
I predicted that consumer related sectors would perform the worst.
I predicted that growth stocks would outperform value stocks.

I made several selections from the survey that matched one stock’s performance versus another stock’s performance. For example, APPL and MSFT were included in this section. You’ll have to wait until TickerSense publishes these results to see how I selected.

Finally, they asked for five stocks that I felt would outperform their peers in 2007. Once again, I will stress that these stock predictions mean absolutely nothing to me and should mean nothing to you but I’ll tell you what I wrote.

Since I was already compiling a similar watch list on the MSW Weekly Screens, I decided to go with a few young stocks that seem to be trending higher, near new highs with products or services in demand. A complete CANSLIM approach when you think about it!

I have stopped trading for the year due to the holidays, visiting family in NY, family coming to NJ and the New Year bash at my house. Bash might not be the right term.

Even though I have stopped trading, I have not stopped my research so I can step right into the game come January. I am searching for stocks that are trending higher, have increasing earnings and are fairly young to the stock market (IPO’s within the past several years).

Here are the five stocks that I am watching for early 2007 and the exact stocks I selected to outperform in 2007 on the survey. Don’t listen to me, listen to the stocks and act accordingly because predictions are typically wrong!

Iconix Brand Group
ICON – 19.82, the ideal entry for this stock is near $17.50 or the 200-day moving average. Volume has been increasing as the stock has been trending higher over the past 18 months. I do expect a consolidation period before the next advance but that is just my opinion. Let the charts tell you what is happening.

Nymex Holdings, Inc.
NMX – 129.01, a young sister stock of CME, ISE, ICE and BOT. Based on the success of the others, I have no reason to expect any less out of this recent IPO. The stock is currently ticking higher over the past couple of weeks but there is still a lack of technical data to get a true picture. A stock I will definitely be watching in 2007 based on my success in ISE and ICE.

Jones Soda Company
JSDA – 10.03, as mentioned last week, Jones is a low priced sister stock of Hansen Natural (HANS) which has potential of a nice move and possible up-trend in 2007. The Ideal entry area is along the 200-d m.a. with shorter term entry points along the 50-d m.a. and above $10.50 on the point and figure chart

Comtech Group Inc.
COGO – 18.50, Comtech is trending higher but is now extended from the 200-d m.a. with a reversal to end the week. Volume has been increasing while the stock reached and floats near new high territory. The ideal entry area is along the 200-d m.a. with shorter term entry points near the 50-d m.a.

Knot, Inc.
KNOT – 27.45, the stock has made multiple daily and weekly screens (MSW Index) over the past year but I removed it earlier than I should have. I made a mistake and explained that in detail in a blog post this past fall. It’s currently extended from the 200-d m.a. and has been trending higher for two straight years. The next ideal entry will be closer to the 200-d m.a. if the stock shows support.