INVN is up 20% since my first tweet on January 5, 2012 which followed a 9% gain that day from $10.90. The stock is up 33.43% since January 1, 2012 and 77.20% since the IPO on November 16, 2011. It’s a young IPO moving on strong volume with a small float and a very interesting (in-demand) technology.

The ideal buy point for this young chart pattern is $11.95, $0.10 above the high of the left side of the base, see chart below. The stock is currently extended from the buy point so please be patient and wait for a new setup or a pullback on lighter than average volume.

I do not own shares as of this post but I am looking to get in based on the analysis above. The stock shot up too quickly before I was taking it serious. It now has my attention. Note that the stock closed down 1.85% on Friday and after-hours trading had it down another $1.13 or 8.50%.

INVN Tweets in 2012:

• January 5, 2012 | $11.11: $INVN http://stks.co/1mSk Young IPO up 9% on vol 277% larger than ave. Interesting technology
• January 9, 2012 | $12.19: $INVN crushing it lately, targeted last week. Up 10% on vol 78% larger than ave to new all time high. Great technology.
• January 9, 2012 | $12.19: $INVN http://stks.co/1qYZ Making a move on volume
• January 10, 2012 | $12.99: $INVN http://stks.co/1rhQ Tack on another 6.5% with volume 156% larger than ave
• January 12, 2012 | $13.54: $INVN http://stks.co/1tyE A 22% move this week, as of noon Thursday. Small float, great technology.

Per Yahoo Finance:

InvenSense, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and sells micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) gyroscopes for motion processing solutions in consumer electronics. The company delivers next-generation motion processing based on its advanced multi-axis gyroscope technology by targeting applications in video game devices, handsets and tablet devices, digital still and video cameras, digital television and set-top box remote controls, 3D mice, portable navigation devices, and household consumer and industrial devices.

It sells its products to manufacturers of consumer electronics devices, original design manufacturers, and contract manufacturers through direct sales organization and non-stocking distributors worldwide. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Key Financials 2011:
Current Period (Quarterly) 10/2/2011 vs. Prior Period 7/2/2011
Cash (Bank Funds): $57,740,000 vs. $44,877,000
Total Assets: $102,312,000 vs. $84,150,000
Total Equity: $82,431,000 vs. $69,320,000
Sales (Income): $43,034,000 vs. $35,627,000
Gross Profit: $23,662,000 vs. $20,618,000
Net Operating Income: $14,799,000 vs. $11,731,000

Period (Yearly) 4/3/2011 vs. Prior Period 4/3/2010
Cash (Bank Funds): $38,075,000 vs. $35,269,000
Total Assets: $70,746,000 vs. $54,450,000
Total Equity: $59,141,000 vs. $35,000,000
Sales (Income): $96,547,000 vs. $79,556,000
Gross Profit: $52,900,000 VS. $43,483,000
Net Operating Income: $21,478,000 vs. $21,971,000

Several China based stocks have been scrutinized for faulty accounting and some shady government practices such as censorship. Renren takes that a step further due to a sudden resignation by a key board member before the IPO (this board member was the chief of its audit committee).

Renren is consider by many as the “Facebook” of China, with a population base at least 3-4 times grater than that of the United States. Renren is a social networking Internet platform in China that generates revenues from online advertising and Internet value-added services.

Revenues and total cash from operations have been increasing year-over-year but net income has not lived up to expectations. It does appear that the company has a boat load of cash and future earnings pan out as such:

FY 2011: -0.03
FY 2012: 0.03
FY 2013: 0.13

With all of that said, I wouldn’t touch this stock with a 10-foot pole since it doesn’t come anywhere near my technical criteria but something keeps pulling me back. I hope it’s not a gambling tingle but more of a hint of intuition knocking. I almost want to compare $RENN to $SIRI when it was trading in cents. $SIRI was crap and still wasn’t turning a profit but my intuition said to buy, at least a few thousands shares. I didn’t and now it’s up nearly 10-fold from that point. I know traders that did and have been paid off handsomely.

So Is RENN teasing me because of my SirusXM miss or is intuition correct again in telling me that this stock has been unfairly beaten down in a rough Chinese stock environment and overall market pullback?

Intuition says to grab shares and hold as a value/ rebound play. My “technical” rules say to STAY AWAY.
I think I’ll grab shares on Monday and tuck them away for a while.

Let’s see if breaking the rules comes back to haunt me. My leash will be slightly larger because my overall position size will be smaller than normal.

To give you an idea of a couple of stocks that my screens and rules are pointing me towards, check out $FIO and $BBRG. They are new IPO’s with earnings and sales growth with prices making new highs.

Let’s revisit all three in 3-6 months.

I have owned APPL on multiple occasions over the past 6 years but I wish I could sit here and write to you that I was a holder the entire time (my gains are just a small slice of the longer term buy and hold pie) . I wasn’t a 1,200%+ gainer but I was in and out while taking profits on a yearly basis back in the mid to late 2000’s. Below is an example of yearly posts I made about Apple or as I called it “Green Apples” due to the fact that it was a cash register stock.

So, with all that praise and the massive gains, am I really turning bearish on the stock? Is Apple starting to turn sour? Well, not so fast but some minor red flags are starting to show up. Take a look at the charts below which highlight the lower highs and lower lows.

January 13, 2005: Green “APPLE”s

“Apple (AAPL) first showed up on my weekly screens on 10/24/04 at $47.41. Since this time, Apple has made the daily and weekly screens numerous times.”

January 17, 2006: All-Star Stock – Digesting Apple

“Apple has been on my screens for 15 months and has been in my portfolio on two separate occasions over those 15 months.”

January 10, 2007: Apple Inc. is Still Green

“What can I say; the apples keep getting greener!”

November 29, 2007: An iPod touch from Apple (AAPL)

“A new high and a move above $200 per share will be very bullish and a signal that this stock may have another run regardless of what the major indices do.”

Apple is still trading above the 200-d moving average and has not violated any long term trendlines so please do not short at this time. You may cash in shares and start to trim back your position by selling but I don’t advise going short just yet.

The ideal position to sell short is after a move below the 200-d ma when the stock tries to break back above but fails – that’s my sweet spot.

Goldman Sachs set a price target of $430 but I don’t listen to these “talking heads”. Another interesting fact: “Nasdaq OMX plans to announce a rare rebalancing of its Nasdaq-100 index, which will reduce the big weighting of Apple, which currently makes up more than 20% of the index.” – WSJ

As of today, April 11, 2011, I suggest cashing in some shares. A further drop and I suggest selling more shares. I wouldn’t even consider the word “short” until the stocks closes below the 200-d ma (trend trade of course – not day trading).

Let’s see if this decade long “Green Apple” turns into a “Sour Apple”.

“Just because a stock is selling at a high price does not mean it won’t go higher” – this applies to markets as well.

Whatever the market will do in 2011, I decided it was prudent to point out a number of strong growth stocks, young companies that have debuted within the past year (many within the past six months). This is NOT a buy list but it is definitely a watch-list for anyone that searches to buy young, innovative companies that are growing both earnings and sales. Several, if not many, of the stocks listed below will lead the market from time to time over the next few years, A couple of them may even become household names, similar to the GOOG, BIDU and AAPL’s of the past.

As it stands right now, Sunday (night), December 12, 2010, the major market indexes are all trending higher in the short, intermediate and long term phases. Until that changes, grab shares at ideal low risk entry points. Enjoy the possible future leaders.

Future Stars: Young Growth Stocks to Watch in 2011 and beyond:
*All charts are listed below*

• HSFT – 27.46, only five months young, HiSoft Technology has currently pulled back to the 50-d moving average line, providing some support for a new entry or an opportunity to add shares.
• MOTR – 23.55, after a three-fold run from it’s IPO price, Motricity is consolidating back to its 50-d moving average for an opportunity to add shares or enter for the first time
• RP – 28.83, RealPage is forming a short term base that resembles a subtle cup with support above the 50-d moving average. A breakout to new highs will continue the up-trend.
• QLIK – 23.40, Qlik Technologies is has been trading mostly sideways over the past three months after nearly tripling from it’s IPO launch. A move to new highs would be positive for grabbing shares.
• MCP – 31.28, Molycorp is trying to maintain support at the 50-d m.a. after running from $14 to a high above $40 per share. The current consolidation is ideal to shake out weak holders and allow new supporters to jump on board.
• TSLA – 31.52, Tesla Motors has been all the rage in the automotive world over the past several months, partly due to it’s stock run from $17 to more than $36 in a few short months. A bit extended here but further consolidation to the 50-d m.a. will offer new opportunities to grab shares.
• KH – 20.48, some of my longer standing readers know I have had a long love affair with Chinese IPO stocks dating back to 2007 (BIDU, EDU, MR). China Kanghui looks like another solid young growth stock – always grab shares at or near a support level like a major moving average. Note this: other young Chinese stocks are starting to show sings of a breakdown so be careful.
• VRA – 36.41, Vera Bradley makes my list because I know and understand this company, one of her bags was a recent gift to my wife. If VRA can be anything like Coach (COH), I’d love to jump on the ride now, nice and early. We can all dream for a ride like COH, extending back much of the past decade.
• ENV – 15.59, Envestnet is up over 80% since it’s debut. The ideal entry is along the 50-d m.a., similar to the pull-back in early November.
• OAS – 27.29, Oasis Petroleum is trending higher above the 50-d m.a. while continuing to make new highs. As with the others, an ideal, lower risk entry is a pullback on lower volume to the 50-d ma. The stock is slightly extended for that type of buy right now.
• IL- 19.60, IntraLinks Holdings has been trading in a $5 range since late October while consolidating back towards the 50-d m.a. with some nice intraday support on large volume in this area. Now is the time to grab shares if you feel the trend is higher.
• ONE – 20.71, Higher One Holdings broke out in early Septmeber and has since run up nearly 100%. Solid support is down near the $16 area with moving average support at the 50-d (just above $18).
• ST, 29.00, Sensata is extended at its current price for an ideal entry but keep it on your radar for a possible pull-back on lighter volume (a consolidation near or slightly above the 50-d m.a.).
• NOR – 11.58, Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. has doubled since its first consolidation after the IPO. Several buying opportunities have presented themselves at 50-d m.a. support (similar to the pullback occurring now).
• PRI – 23.85, Primerica is an interesting company that most of us has heard of but not many sign-up (at least that’s what we all thought). However, the stock is making a turn higher with a possible triple top breakout above $26, that’s the entry point to new highs.
• CHKM – 26.97, Chesapeake Midstream Partner hasn’t had the initial run as many of the stocks listed above but the run has a been a consistent 35%+ with entry points at the 50-d m.a., similar to the once current taking place.
• PDM – 19.31, Piedmont works in an industry that I call my “day job”. This stock will fly if the commercial office market picks up next year. I suspect this stock will move based on that market. It has a 35% gain for the year, not too bad for a company in a distressed market.
• FNGN – 17.92, Financial Engines took a beating after the IPO but has since started a comeback, advancing from a low above $12 to current highs near $18. A push to new highs with supporting volume will be a sign to grab shares.

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

“The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.”

Give it time, past industries can and usually do take years to recover. The one “prediction” I did make has held true, NVR continues to be the group’s leader. Since my blog post on 8/24/07, NVR is the ONLY stock showing a gain with Hovnanian still down more than 75%. Toll Brothers is a distant second with a 10.77% loss.

(NVR) NVR Inc.: + 7.74%
(TOL) Toll Brothers Inc.: -10.77%
(MDC) MDC Holdings Inc.: -19.99%
(DHI) DR Horton Inc.: -22.76%
(RYL) Ryland Group Inc.: -30.15%
(PHM) Pulte Homes Inc.: -40.29%
(KBH) KB Home: -43.33%
(LEN) Lennar Corp.: -58.49%
(CTX) Centex Corporation: -67.11%
(BZH) Beazer Homes USA Inc.: -75.27%
(HOV) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.: -75.99%

I guess it helped to work in this industry during the boom for approximately five years but I am sill surprised that some of the big guys haven’t merged or taken over their competitors.

Other than Housing, Biotech and Cyclicals also lead the market this past week (+26% & +10% respectively), these are not the groups of choice for leaders (in my opinion).

Here’s the original post from August 24, 2007:

The analysis below will show you why I select this stock as the best bet when the builders eventually hit a bottom and start moving higher.

Nathan Rothschild, founder of one of Europe’s most-powerful economic dynasties, uttered one of the most frequently quoted maxims on investment timing in the early 19th Century when he said, “The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets.”

Now, blood is running in the streets for this industry and the homebuilders are getting their rear-ends kicked by Wall Street, the media and anyone else that will jump on the bandwagon.

So, when will the bottom arrive? Who the hell knows? And if someone tells you they know, just walk away because they are fooling themselves and anyone who listens.

The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.

With that said, I would like to tell you why I feel that NVR Homes (NVR) is the best bet when the bottom does arrive and we start to see some life in this area.

Let’s start with the charts above. They shows us that NVR now has the sixth largest market cap and is the only leading US Big Builder to boast a current ROE above the double digit threshold (positive of course). Of the ten other major players, only Ryland Group (RYL) has a positive ROE while writing this piece. This is major because every one of these stocks were reporting 20%+ ROE’s over the past five to seven years with several of them averaging 35% or better. NVR had an ROE of 105.2% in 2003, 78.7% in 2004 and 92.3% in 2005.

NVR was one of the smarter builders by scaling back their land purchases in 2005 and 2006 when everyone else was going nuts buying land that was way overvalued. They were also the only homebuilder to receive a report card grade of A- by Big Builder Magazine in the May 8, 2007 edition. The magazine said:

NVR’s inimitable focus on EPS growth through capital allocation discipline and land-risk minimization has positioned the company to weather a deep and long downturn in superb condition. The company’s extreme concentration in the Washington, D.C., market and its immediate environs exposes it to that market’s vulnerabilities but allows for peerless operational discipline and flexibility in light of situational opportunities that emerge before a wider recovery. The company’s market share strength in its competitive arena give it leverage in renegotiating terms on optioned takedowns, allowing the builder to remain in control of assets even in a slower sales pace environment.

Financially, the company is maintaining its leadership role in areas such as cash flow, earnings, long term debt, ROA, ROE, net income and revenue. Since they are writing off the least amount of land due to their foresight in 2005, they are managing to keep their financial numbers above their peers and remain the best investment from this industry for Wall Street.

Finally, we must look to the charts where we see that NVR has the strongest relative strength (RS) rating versus every one of its peers in the industry. NVR is the only stock of the big builders to show a double digit gain over its price from one year ago; up 15.82%. Actually, MDC is the only other stock to show a positive gain from this time last year at 8.77%. Comparatively, BZH is down over 73% and HOV is down 55%.

Looking at the next set of charts, we can see that NVR has dropped the least year-to-date versus the other leading builders in the US. They have only corrected by 11.47% while the rest of the pack has corrected by an average of 45%. Once again, BZH has dropped the most in 2007 at 78.09% with HOV right behind at 65.04%.

Therefore, I rate NVR the best value buy in this group when it decides to hit bottom and turn higher over the next couple of years. Long term, I see NVR reaching the $700 to $800 range while some of the other builders will still be struggling to reach $15 to $20 per share. Amateur investors may argue that it is easer for a $12 stock to go to $20 but I will argue and place my money behind the $550 stock to move $250 points higher to $800. NVR almost reached $1,000 per share at its peak and I have no doubt that we will see it there one day but that could take a long time and beaten down industries need years to recover.

FYI: I do NOT own any shares in any of the companies listed below. If I do buy in this industry, it will most likely be NVR based on the intelligence of its management leadership.

Closing prices from 8/23/07:
(DHI) DR Horton Inc., $16.11
(LEN) Lennar Corp., $29.99
(PHM) Pulte Homes Inc., $17.59
(CTX)Centex Corporation, $31.86
(TOL) Toll Brothers Inc., $22.65
(NVR) NVR Inc., $571.00
(KBH) KB Home, $31.80
(MDC) MDC Holdings Inc., $45.41
(RYL) Ryland Group Inc., $31.47
(HOV) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., $11.85
(BZH) Beazer Homes USA Inc., $10.24

The average gain of the stocks showing a profit is 26%.
The average loss of the stocks showing a loss is 11% (-5%, -8% and -21%).

The top performing position is DXO, currently up 65% with a peak gain above 70%. Following DXO is EJ at 56%, STAR at 50%, RVBD at 40%, FRPT at 32%, ARST at 26% and V & VMW tied at 25%.

Visa (V) has appeared the most with a total of eight mentions (I may be biased since it’s my largest personal holding). DXO has also been an active play of mine since 2008 so it has been the second most popular ticker in my tweets, appearing five times over the past two months (DXO first appeared on this blog last November as a speculative oil play).

I would like to emphasize that the stock down 21% (APEI) would have been cut for a smaller loss using simple money management tools but for purposes of this update, we’ll assume everything is still being held.

Below is the list of stocks highlighted on my Twitter account, listed in date order (starting on March 31, 2009):

• HTS: +7%, $26.15 from $24.35 on 3/31/09
• V: +25%, $69.28 from $55.60 on 3/31/09
• VMW: +25%, 32.59 from $26.12 on 4/1/09
• RVBD: +40%, $21.52 from $15.37 on 4/2/09
• STAR: +50%, $22.45 from $15.00 on 4/5/09
• CXO: +14%, $31.90 from $27.96 on 4/5/09
• DXO: +65%, $4.48 from $2.72 on 4/20/09 (1st posted on 4/6/09 at $3.07)
• EJ: +56%, $16.78 from $10.79 on 4/9/08
• ARST: +26%, $18.19 from $14.46 on 4/9/09
• FRPT: +32%, $9.36 from $7.09 on 4/13/09
• WMZ: +12%, $19.85 from $17.70 on 4/14/09
• CTCT: +10%, $20.14 from $18.36 on 4/20/09
• TNDM: +15%, $30.78 from $26.81 on 4/20/09
• CFL: +11%, $30.60 from $27.50 on 4/26/09
• PAR: +3%, $11.27 from $10.94 on 6/2/09
• APEI: -21%, $34.56 from $44.00 on 4/2/09
• MDAS: -5%, $15.90 from $16.79 on 4/23/09
• MELI: -8%, $23.62 from $25.60 on 5/12/09

If you haven’t joined already, take the few seconds to follow me on Twitter as the bulk of my analysis appears there weekly, if not nightly.

P.S. – the bragging title of this post probably signals a short term top in the market! As I wrote yesterday:

“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” – Bernard Baruch

See the post Visa, from December 17, 2008 for further details:

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

• $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
• Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
• VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
• VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
• VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

• Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
• Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Let’s see what happens. The gov’t here in the US scares me these days when it comes to credit cards so pay attention to what they are doing. I wish they would just butt-out and go back to doing what they are meant to do.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a great looking up-trending chart since the day of its IPO and started to show up on my daily screens in late December (the most successful IPO in a long time – out of the box). This is definitely a stock that I would purchase if the market was showing strength. For now, I will stay on the sidelines until I can see some form of a rally starting to take place.

The other stocks listed below are also displaying nice technical characteristics in this murky environment which leads me to believe that they have potential to become market leaders in a rally. APEI is closely related to LOPE as these stocks typically do well when the market is in a recession. GXDX and ENSG are related to the healthcare and/or science industry which seems to do well when the economy has turned sour as well. Stocks such as APOL, COCO and CECO were superstars after 9-11 in the months leading up to the rally of 2003. Medical related stocks were also topping my charts in late 2002 and early 2003. Times seem to be repeating so we’ll have to wait for a market signal before jumping into any of these candidates.

In any evert, keep them on your watchlist.

• APEI – American Public Education, Inc.
• GXDX – Genoptix, Inc.
• ENSG – The Ensign Group, Inc.

Several of these stocks have been highlighted in blog posts dating back to November – be patient! We’ll continue to sit on them until the time is right.

• Three Stocks to Watch
• “A”+ Stocks
• Strong Stock Charts
• Institutions Accumulating Shares

Visa. Love every day. (Europe)
Visa. All it takes (Asia-Pacific campaign)
Visa. All you need. (Canada)
Wherever it takes you, the future takes Visa (Europe)

Visa is the only growth stock that I decided to keep in my portfolio over the past several months. Countless people wrote to me asking “why” I was still holding the stock after I mentioned it in False Markets in October, even though it had violated the 50-d moving average and was trending down. I didn’t have a technical answer and I honestly wasn’t following any rules. I fell victim to a greater power that told me to hold, regardless of everything else. Technically speaking, it was and still is the wrong thing to do and goes against all sell rules on this blog.

My reasons were more fundamental than technical, especially due to what was happening on the street. I explained my reasons in both of these posts:

• VISA (V) set to Launch
• Anticipating the VISA IPO

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

• $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
• Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
• VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
• VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
• VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

• Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
• Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Now, Visa is back above the 50-d m.a. but something is still wrong, volume is lacking on the upside. I want to see a surge in volume and I also want to see the govenment to butt-out. Banks may fail but Visa is not the one on the hook. I could be playing this all wrong and as I have already said, I am not playing by the rules but I see Visa coming out on top after the skies clear. I am still long Visa.

Who knows, maybe it’s another lesson in a long line of lessons I thought I had already learned.