chrisperruna twitter stock selections 2009:

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

I figured I would recap my last 100 tweets to those of you that still check into this blog but don’t follow me on twitter. Please, check me out on twitter as I do most of my writing and thoughts over there as the new family life prevents me from writing intense, heavily researched stock blog posts. I am not in the business of writing short crappy blog posts so I focus my time on actionable ideas and education on twitter. I plan to one day return to more consistent writing on the blog. Until that day, follow my tweets to stay in touch with my thoughts on the market (1,200 other people already follow).

If you can take anything away from my recent tweets, focus on the message of the following ten tweets, reference the bold type (they all show caution and skepticism in the market based on the lack of individual leaders). New Highs have been reaching levels not seen in years but they are still far below the levels necessary for a “true bull market”, one that will be sustainable.

1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web

3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web

7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web

8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web

17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web

35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web

47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web

48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web

49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web

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See below for the complete list of my most recent tweets (100 total tweets – all dated and reproduced exactly as they appear on twitter).

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I have blogged and twittered about DXO for almost eight months now and nailed both the entry and exit points of the trade. I really nailed the exit (lock in gains) for the twitter community even though I sold earlier. I tweeted the day before and the day after the ETN topped and told everyone that it was a good idea to lock in gains “here”. Take a look back at the tweets and view the chart where I was making calls on DXO. See, twitter is valuable when people use it correctly.

7/11/09: DXO – $3.48, down more than 26% from sell calls. DXO gained more than 74% from my first twitter buy calls

Who says charts don’t work?

• 7/6/09: $DXO – 3.90, down 18% since my sell tweets in June. 6/10 @ 4.67 & 6/12 @ $4.76. Always ignore analysts, never ignore charts! 10:04 AM Jul 6th from web
• 7/6/09: RT 6/12/09 @cperruna $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices…charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 8:29 AM Jul 6th from web
• 6/12/09: $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices but the charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 6:38 AM Jun 12th from StockTwits
• 6/10/09: $DXO – $4.67, up 72% from 4/20 $2.72 twitter coverage. Lock in gains here, resistance above at 200d ma 11:18 PM Jun 10th from StockTwits
• 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.21, talk about blast off above $3.75 breakout. Made nice profit but sold too soon, ignoring my own chart analysis. Entry is gone 12:00 PM May 29th from StockTwits
• 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.03, it blasted past the $3.75 triple top breakout point, highlighted in this blog post, see P&F chart http://bit.ly/wTjX 9:07 AM May 29th from StockTwits
• 5/26/09: $DXO – $3.79, cashing in profits. See April twits on DXO, buy at $2.72. 11:00 PM May 26th from StockTwits
• 4/20/09: $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?). 9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• 4/6/09: $DXO – I am looking for the gap to fill down near $2.70; will grab short term shares between $2.50 – $2.70. Moving ave support at $2.55 8:26 PM Apr 6th from StockTwits
• 3/30/09: $DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup 8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

2/09/09 Blog Post:

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

• February 9, 2009: Oil Double Long ETN (DXO)
• December 12, 2008: Dollar falls, Crude up
• December 02, 2008: Dollars, T-Bonds and Crude Oil
• November 26, 2008: Oil a Value Buy?

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most…

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal…the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or a breakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume.

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.

I have been using Twitter and StockTwits for approximately two months and have highlighted 18 different stocks. Of the 18 stocks, 15 are currently showing a gain and 3 are showing a loss for an average gain of 20% per position. I only analyze stocks that I am about to buy/sell or would possibly buy/sell. I don’t talk about any old stock for the sake of posting tweets and wasting people’s time.

The average gain of the stocks showing a profit is 26%.
The average loss of the stocks showing a loss is 11% (-5%, -8% and -21%).

The top performing position is DXO, currently up 65% with a peak gain above 70%. Following DXO is EJ at 56%, STAR at 50%, RVBD at 40%, FRPT at 32%, ARST at 26% and V & VMW tied at 25%.

Visa (V) has appeared the most with a total of eight mentions (I may be biased since it’s my largest personal holding). DXO has also been an active play of mine since 2008 so it has been the second most popular ticker in my tweets, appearing five times over the past two months (DXO first appeared on this blog last November as a speculative oil play).

I would like to emphasize that the stock down 21% (APEI) would have been cut for a smaller loss using simple money management tools but for purposes of this update, we’ll assume everything is still being held.

Below is the list of stocks highlighted on my Twitter account, listed in date order (starting on March 31, 2009):

• HTS: +7%, $26.15 from $24.35 on 3/31/09
• V: +25%, $69.28 from $55.60 on 3/31/09
• VMW: +25%, 32.59 from $26.12 on 4/1/09
• RVBD: +40%, $21.52 from $15.37 on 4/2/09
• STAR: +50%, $22.45 from $15.00 on 4/5/09
• CXO: +14%, $31.90 from $27.96 on 4/5/09
• DXO: +65%, $4.48 from $2.72 on 4/20/09 (1st posted on 4/6/09 at $3.07)
• EJ: +56%, $16.78 from $10.79 on 4/9/08
• ARST: +26%, $18.19 from $14.46 on 4/9/09
• FRPT: +32%, $9.36 from $7.09 on 4/13/09
• WMZ: +12%, $19.85 from $17.70 on 4/14/09
• CTCT: +10%, $20.14 from $18.36 on 4/20/09
• TNDM: +15%, $30.78 from $26.81 on 4/20/09
• CFL: +11%, $30.60 from $27.50 on 4/26/09
• PAR: +3%, $11.27 from $10.94 on 6/2/09
• APEI: -21%, $34.56 from $44.00 on 4/2/09
• MDAS: -5%, $15.90 from $16.79 on 4/23/09
• MELI: -8%, $23.62 from $25.60 on 5/12/09

If you haven’t joined already, take the few seconds to follow me on Twitter as the bulk of my analysis appears there weekly, if not nightly.

P.S. – the bragging title of this post probably signals a short term top in the market! As I wrote yesterday:

“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” – Bernard Baruch

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Below are the latest comments I have been making through StockTwits and Twitter.

• cperruna@fortune8 – $V entry is $61.50 , 12% stop (just below last dip). Risk is $7.38; reward long term is 5.2x at $100 and 3.86x at $90.less than 5 seconds ago from web in reply to fortune8
• $CFL – $27.50, new all time high for young stock. Alarms always up in poor economy; break-ins up at same time.1 minute ago from StockTwits
• $V – $60.38, technically, the pivot point is $61.50. All that is left is for the 50d to move above 200d – then look for $60-$100 move.6 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $STAR – $18.78, ready to make new 52-wk high. Closed Friday up 18% on volume 301% above ave. Watch it – trender12 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $RVBD – 17.81, up 15% last week on heavy volume. 50d moved above 200d ma (positive). Quadruple top breakout! About to challenge 52-wk high15 minutes ago from StockTwits
• RT @KeithShepard Global Warming Delusions (http://bit.ly/rWewn) “The evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin.about 23 hours ago from web
• $MDAS – $16.79, up 4.81% on volume 218% larger than ave. Looks like it is ready to move. 50d above 200d is all that’s left for long term7:29 PM Apr 23rd from StockTwits
• Rough day for longs: Only 308 advancing issues, the the third fewest on NYSE in 2009. 2,823 decliners, 4th highest total in ’09 $$11:03 PM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?).9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $TNDM – $26.81, watch this one, volume exploding but it is extended. I will grab shares at 50-d ma if given the chance.9:04 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CXO – $27.70, let’s see if 50d can recover 200d. Buy with strong move above $29 (triple top breakout on P&F).8:59 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CTCT – $18.36, blasted above 200d last week on above ave volume. Entry was $17.50 on P&F charts. Keep an eye on it.8:58 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $FRPT – $7.67, up more than 10% on above ave volume. Up 8% since Monday’s mention. Like I said – $14 is next long term resistance1:46 PM Apr 16th from StockTwits
• $V – $58.33, challenging the 200d ma. Expect struggle here. Becomes long buy when 50d crosses above 200d ma. Will enter $60-$100 run10:37 PM Apr 14th from StockTwits

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