Sky-mobi MOBI is on Fire

Sky-mobi Ltd., $MOBI, has my most covered stock on twitter over the past month with 14 total posts, including today’s tweet. I first highlighted the stock on March 24, 2011 at $11.52 as it blasted up 21% on volume 495% larger than the average.

What did I recommend? ACCUMULATE!

I also complained that stocks like $MOBI don’t make the IBD 50 list quick enough. Well, the stock is now up 80% since I started to track it using IBD’s research tools and more than 100% since the actual run to new highs started. The overall run from the initial breakout after the IPO now has the stock up 300%.

Young stocks making new highs on HUGE volume (with low float) will typically always make AMAZING runs in a short period of time. Jump on them and enjoy the ride. Stop out if they reverse – keep it simple.

I talk about placing a stop to lock in minimum gains back on 4/15 – I still recommend a trailing stop, no less than the $15-$16 range to allow for normal pullbacks. I also talked about locking in gains overall after the 60% gain and I don’t have a problem with that advice, even at 80% plus gains now. The stock has powerful supporters taking it to new highs every week. I don’t have a problem with traders taking positions on low volume pullbacks.

Take a look at the charts and my tweets on $MOBI:

  • 4/27: $MOBI – 20.21, now up nearly 80% in 1 month. My most heavily covered stock on twitter since 3/23 – what a beauty!
  • 4/22: $MOBI – 16.81, up today but I alerted holders to take profits when it crossed $18 Tuesday morning, was a 60% gain from 3/23 coverage
  • 4/19: @StockTwits @DynamicHedge You missed $MOBI up 60% in less than 4 weeks.
  • 4/19: @timothysykes we both nailed $MOBI – nice job. Watch it make IBD’s list now, after the 50% run-up
  • 4/19: $MOBI – 17.94, lock in gains now. Up nearly 60% from $11.52 in March.
  • 4/18: $MOBI up over $17, nearly a 50% gain in 3 weeks from $11.52 coverage
  • 4/15: $MOBI is en fuego, up 35% at $15.60 from $11.52 twitter coverage. Place stop to lock in min 20-25% gain.
  • 4/14: $MOBI – 14.60, up 12.22% on volume 57% larger than ave | covered 3/23 at 11.52, +27% in 3 weeks : http://bit.ly/fA5lGh
  • 4/04: $MOBI higher again today, float is small at 7MM shares. It’s now beyond ideal risk/reward buy point. Up 15% from my coverage 2 wks back
  • 4/04: 5 Stocks to Watch this week: $LOGM – 46.08, $SODA – 46.80, $MMYT – 30.99, $SVN – 21.83, $MOBI – 12.85
  • 4/03: 5 Newbies to IBD 50: $TIBX, $MELI, $ENDP, $VPHM, $PRGO; not bad but they need to get quicker (earlier) with stocks like $MOBI
  • 3/28: @timothysykes This might be the 1st time we are tracking & trading the same stock, $MOBI (I am not a penny guy)
  • 3/24: Grabbing shares on any $MOBI pullback to $10 range on lighter volume. Outstanding shares tight w/ above ave volume support $$
  • 3/24: $MOBI – $11.52 was up 21.51% today on volume 495% larger than ave, blasting to an all-time high – accumulate $$

Why Major Stock Market Trends are so Profitable

The month was March and the year was 2009, that’s when I joined Twitter and started to post up stocks making strong price and volume moves to the up-side during the newly established up-trend. The up-trend or bull market as some like to call it began in March 2009 (I joined 3/31/09 but have been blogging since January 2005).

From March to August, I posted up 56 stock positions that I liked on the buy side (Note: several stocks made multiple tweets at multiple prices and different dates so their tickers do repeat).

Of those 56 stock positions, 44 of them are still showing a profit, nearly two years after the start of the new bull market. This observation is based purely on a buy and hold scenario (clearly not the way I trade or recommend anyone to trade). However, for purposes of this blog post, we will use the “simplest” form of explanation to drive home the powerful point of buying and selling with the major market trend.

The best performer was CXO, listed multiple times from April to August with a top gain of 282% (as of the close on Friday, March 25, 2011). CXO was targeted as it traded in the $27 range and then again in the low to mid $30’s; it closed Friday at $105.86. In total, 14 stocks are currently showing a gain of 100% or more with six of the positions larger than 200%.

The 200%+ tickers include: $CXO, $RAX, $VMW, $ARST
The 100%+ tickers include: $MELI, $RVBD, $HMIN

Note: ARST was bought by HPQ for the share prices used in this blog ($43.50 from $16.96) .

On the flip side, 12 stocks are currently showing a loss with FRPT leading the way, down over 30% from $7.09 to $4.96. Please note that several of the “losing stocks” listed went on to make gains of 5%, 10% or 20% but then collapsed. For example, CISG went from $18.25 to a high of $28.33 before closing Friday at $13.54, showing a 26% loss. But, the “buy and hold” hypothetical scenario will cancel out the true losses from the true gains (not all winners would have been held the full two years for maximum gain).

To recap:

  • 56 Total Stocks Profiled (March to August 2009 – following new up-trend)
  • 44 Stocks showing a gain
  • 12 Stocks showing a loss
  • Average gain is 76% (44 total positions)
  • Average loss is 12% (12 total positions)
  • The win-loss ratio is 78.6% (winners)
  • The largest gain is 282% ($CXO)
  • The largest loss is 30% ($FRPT)

Please note that “true” buy and sell rules would have closed out many of these actual positions as they took 5%-8%+ losses and the winners may have been closed on pullbacks of 15% or more. A pure buy and hold scenario would give you a 57% gain (as of today), buying $1,000 worth of shares in each of the 56 positions.

The point of the post is to show how STRONG and LONG LASTING a MAJOR TREND REVERSAL is in the market. The major trends can last for years before fizzling out, trading sideways and then starting a new trend or reversing in the opposite direction. I didn’t starting showing the possible trades in early March which was the ultimate bottom and I can’t tell you when the “ultimate top” will be but pay attention, this up-trend is in a late stage (vulnerable).

A major market reversal has NOT been confirmed but keep a close eye on your positions. If we move higher, hold tight and even add shares where warranted but start to sell when the NH-NL Ratio confirms any clear distribution and downward movement by the major indicies such as the $INDU or $COMPQ (price and volume).

I am not a buy and hold investor but you can clearly see the huge gains that strong (and young) growth stocks can give to your portfolio – just by spotting a major trend formation. Ride the trend, it’s that simple!

Enjoy and stay tuned as we watch quietly, carefully and patiently for any potential trend reversals.

My complete 2009 stock list (March to August) is below:
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Twitter Stock Pick Results 2009

chrisperruna twitter stock selections 2009:

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

100 Stock Tweets Since August

I figured I would recap my last 100 tweets to those of you that still check into this blog but don’t follow me on twitter. Please, check me out on twitter as I do most of my writing and thoughts over there as the new family life prevents me from writing intense, heavily researched stock blog posts. I am not in the business of writing short crappy blog posts so I focus my time on actionable ideas and education on twitter. I plan to one day return to more consistent writing on the blog. Until that day, follow my tweets to stay in touch with my thoughts on the market (1,200 other people already follow).

If you can take anything away from my recent tweets, focus on the message of the following ten tweets, reference the bold type (they all show caution and skepticism in the market based on the lack of individual leaders). New Highs have been reaching levels not seen in years but they are still far below the levels necessary for a “true bull market”, one that will be sustainable.

092709_NAS_daily

1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web

3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web

7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web

8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web

17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web

35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web

47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web

48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web

49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web

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See below for the complete list of my most recent tweets (100 total tweets – all dated and reproduced exactly as they appear on twitter).

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Trading DXO on Twitter

I have blogged and twittered about DXO for almost eight months now and nailed both the entry and exit points of the trade. I really nailed the exit (lock in gains) for the twitter community even though I sold earlier. I tweeted the day before and the day after the ETN topped and told everyone that it was a good idea to lock in gains “here”. Take a look back at the tweets and view the chart where I was making calls on DXO. See, twitter is valuable when people use it correctly.

7/11/09: DXO – $3.48, down more than 26% from sell calls. DXO gained more than 74% from my first twitter buy calls

Who says charts don’t work?

071109_dxo_daily

  • 7/6/09: $DXO – 3.90, down 18% since my sell tweets in June. 6/10 @ 4.67 & 6/12 @ $4.76. Always ignore analysts, never ignore charts! 10:04 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 7/6/09: RT 6/12/09 @cperruna $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices…charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 8:29 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 6/12/09: $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices but the charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 6:38 AM Jun 12th from StockTwits
  • 6/10/09: $DXO – $4.67, up 72% from 4/20 $2.72 twitter coverage. Lock in gains here, resistance above at 200d ma 11:18 PM Jun 10th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.21, talk about blast off above $3.75 breakout. Made nice profit but sold too soon, ignoring my own chart analysis. Entry is gone 12:00 PM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.03, it blasted past the $3.75 triple top breakout point, highlighted in this blog post, see P&F chart http://bit.ly/wTjX 9:07 AM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/26/09: $DXO – $3.79, cashing in profits. See April twits on DXO, buy at $2.72. 11:00 PM May 26th from StockTwits
  • 4/20/09: $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?). 9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
  • 4/6/09: $DXO – I am looking for the gap to fill down near $2.70; will grab short term shares between $2.50 – $2.70. Moving ave support at $2.55 8:26 PM Apr 6th from StockTwits
  • 3/30/09: $DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup 8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

2/09/09 Blog Post:

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most…

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal…the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or a breakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume.

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.