What did I recommend? ACCUMULATE!

I also complained that stocks like $MOBI don’t make the IBD 50 list quick enough. Well, the stock is now up 80% since I started to track it using IBD’s research tools and more than 100% since the actual run to new highs started. The overall run from the initial breakout after the IPO now has the stock up 300%.

Young stocks making new highs on HUGE volume (with low float) will typically always make AMAZING runs in a short period of time. Jump on them and enjoy the ride. Stop out if they reverse – keep it simple.

I talk about placing a stop to lock in minimum gains back on 4/15 – I still recommend a trailing stop, no less than the $15-$16 range to allow for normal pullbacks. I also talked about locking in gains overall after the 60% gain and I don’t have a problem with that advice, even at 80% plus gains now. The stock has powerful supporters taking it to new highs every week. I don’t have a problem with traders taking positions on low volume pullbacks.

Take a look at the charts and my tweets on $MOBI:

• 4/27: $MOBI – 20.21, now up nearly 80% in 1 month. My most heavily covered stock on twitter since 3/23 – what a beauty!
• 4/22: $MOBI – 16.81, up today but I alerted holders to take profits when it crossed $18 Tuesday morning, was a 60% gain from 3/23 coverage
• 4/19: @StockTwits @DynamicHedge You missed $MOBI up 60% in less than 4 weeks.
• 4/19: @timothysykes we both nailed $MOBI – nice job. Watch it make IBD’s list now, after the 50% run-up
• 4/19: $MOBI – 17.94, lock in gains now. Up nearly 60% from $11.52 in March.
• 4/18: $MOBI up over $17, nearly a 50% gain in 3 weeks from $11.52 coverage
• 4/15: $MOBI is en fuego, up 35% at $15.60 from $11.52 twitter coverage. Place stop to lock in min 20-25% gain.
• 4/14: $MOBI – 14.60, up 12.22% on volume 57% larger than ave | covered 3/23 at 11.52, +27% in 3 weeks : http://bit.ly/fA5lGh
• 4/04: $MOBI higher again today, float is small at 7MM shares. It’s now beyond ideal risk/reward buy point. Up 15% from my coverage 2 wks back
• 4/04: 5 Stocks to Watch this week: $LOGM – 46.08, $SODA – 46.80, $MMYT – 30.99, $SVN – 21.83, $MOBI – 12.85
• 4/03: 5 Newbies to IBD 50: $TIBX, $MELI, $ENDP, $VPHM, $PRGO; not bad but they need to get quicker (earlier) with stocks like $MOBI
• 3/28: @timothysykes This might be the 1st time we are tracking & trading the same stock, $MOBI (I am not a penny guy)
• 3/24: Grabbing shares on any $MOBI pullback to $10 range on lighter volume. Outstanding shares tight w/ above ave volume support $$
• 3/24: $MOBI – $11.52 was up 21.51% today on volume 495% larger than ave, blasting to an all-time high – accumulate $$

From March to August, I posted up 56 stock positions that I liked on the buy side (Note: several stocks made multiple tweets at multiple prices and different dates so their tickers do repeat).

Of those 56 stock positions, 44 of them are still showing a profit, nearly two years after the start of the new bull market. This observation is based purely on a buy and hold scenario (clearly not the way I trade or recommend anyone to trade). However, for purposes of this blog post, we will use the “simplest” form of explanation to drive home the powerful point of buying and selling with the major market trend.

The best performer was CXO, listed multiple times from April to August with a top gain of 282% (as of the close on Friday, March 25, 2011). CXO was targeted as it traded in the $27 range and then again in the low to mid $30’s; it closed Friday at $105.86. In total, 14 stocks are currently showing a gain of 100% or more with six of the positions larger than 200%.

The 200%+ tickers include: $CXO, $RAX, $VMW, $ARST
The 100%+ tickers include: $MELI, $RVBD, $HMIN

Note: ARST was bought by HPQ for the share prices used in this blog ($43.50 from $16.96) .

On the flip side, 12 stocks are currently showing a loss with FRPT leading the way, down over 30% from $7.09 to $4.96. Please note that several of the “losing stocks” listed went on to make gains of 5%, 10% or 20% but then collapsed. For example, CISG went from $18.25 to a high of $28.33 before closing Friday at $13.54, showing a 26% loss. But, the “buy and hold” hypothetical scenario will cancel out the true losses from the true gains (not all winners would have been held the full two years for maximum gain).

To recap:

• 56 Total Stocks Profiled (March to August 2009 – following new up-trend)
• 44 Stocks showing a gain
• 12 Stocks showing a loss
• Average gain is 76% (44 total positions)
• Average loss is 12% (12 total positions)
• The win-loss ratio is 78.6% (winners)
• The largest gain is 282% ($CXO)
• The largest loss is 30% ($FRPT)

Please note that “true” buy and sell rules would have closed out many of these actual positions as they took 5%-8%+ losses and the winners may have been closed on pullbacks of 15% or more. A pure buy and hold scenario would give you a 57% gain (as of today), buying $1,000 worth of shares in each of the 56 positions.

The point of the post is to show how STRONG and LONG LASTING a MAJOR TREND REVERSAL is in the market. The major trends can last for years before fizzling out, trading sideways and then starting a new trend or reversing in the opposite direction. I didn’t starting showing the possible trades in early March which was the ultimate bottom and I can’t tell you when the “ultimate top” will be but pay attention, this up-trend is in a late stage (vulnerable).

A major market reversal has NOT been confirmed but keep a close eye on your positions. If we move higher, hold tight and even add shares where warranted but start to sell when the NH-NL Ratio confirms any clear distribution and downward movement by the major indicies such as the $INDU or $COMPQ (price and volume).

I am not a buy and hold investor but you can clearly see the huge gains that strong (and young) growth stocks can give to your portfolio – just by spotting a major trend formation. Ride the trend, it’s that simple!

Enjoy and stay tuned as we watch quietly, carefully and patiently for any potential trend reversals.

My complete 2009 stock list (March to August) is below:

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

If you can take anything away from my recent tweets, focus on the message of the following ten tweets, reference the bold type (they all show caution and skepticism in the market based on the lack of individual leaders). New Highs have been reaching levels not seen in years but they are still far below the levels necessary for a “true bull market”, one that will be sustainable.

1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web

3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web

7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web

8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web

17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web

35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web

47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web

48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web

49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web

*********************
See below for the complete list of my most recent tweets (100 total tweets – all dated and reproduced exactly as they appear on twitter).

1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web

2. “Play for more than you can afford to lose and you will learn the game.” – Winston Churchill, Nice quote to apply to the market $$7:19 PM Sep 19th from web

3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web

4. NYSE: 354 new highs today, the most since 10/11/2007 when it closed at 383-35. Only 2 NL’s today. 0 days above 300 in 08 $$7:47 PM Sep 16th from web

5. @rbanta Correct, DJIA was at 13,930 on 10/31/07. NL’s topped 600 on NYSE 20 days later. Hit 1,114 NL’s on 1/22/08 $$8:28 PM Sep 15th from web in reply to rbanta

6. Most NH’s on NYSE since October 31, 2007 when we hit 269-60. Today closed at 230-2. The first 200+ day since September 2008 $$8:07 PM Sep 15th from web

7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web

8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web

9. NASDAQ Stat Check: 2009, 3 days w/ 100+ NH’s; 2008, 3 days; 2007, 107 days; 2006, 119 days $$9:40 PM Sep 13th from web

10. RT @lhsilva MONEY MANAGEMENT & POSITION SIZING | Investor Central Blogs http://cli.gs/2YpGy9:34 PM Sep 13th from web

11. @Jediphone @upsidetrader: KEN FISCHERS NEW BOOK ON HOW TO SPOT FINANCIAL DISASTERS BEFORE THEY HAPPEN, TNX 4 AFTER THE FACT-> NO VALUE ADDED11:19 AM Sep 13th from web in reply to Jediphone

12. RT @steenbab Which stocks are most overbought: http://rurl.org/1w0a $$1:21 PM Sep 12th from web

13. @upsidetrader $$ Amazing stat,, DOW closes 9605, day before 9/11 attacks in 2001, we also closed at 96058:39 PM Sep 11th from web in reply to upsidetrader

14. @rbl656 Read this book to learn “When to Sell” – I highly recommend! http://bit.ly/1IcRQE $$7:55 AM Sep 11th from web in reply to rbl656

15. @rbl656 I base it on the overall market & the individual action. Going higher on weak volume is a sign to take profits if market is weak $$9:00 PM Sep 10th from web in reply to rbl656

16. NYSE: 179 NH’s, the most since September 19, 2008 (almost 1 year). 107 NH’s for NASDAQ, only 3rd time this year @ 100+ $$8:29 PM Sep 10th from web

17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web

18. Top EPS stocks making NH’s on volume 100%+ than 50-d ave: $HITK, $JDAS, $SIG, $TECD, $ININ, $EMS, $DLM (not a buy list, just research) $$8:52 PM Sep 9th from web

19. $HMIN – $28.88, up 48% since 8/4/09 tweet at $19.57. Profit taking time in my opinion, that gap-up at $20 has to fill $$8:41 PM Sep 9th from web

20. RT Excellent @Jediphone @EdgeTrader “This has been a Fed-muscled rally using Permanent Open Market Operations”: http://bit.ly/R8XPn $$8:25 PM Sep 9th from web

21. RT @IBDinvestors The NASDAQ hit a new high Wednesday and volume rose, putting the market back in a confirmed uptrend http://bit.ly/KTMeF8:18 PM Sep 9th from web

22. NYSE: 173 New Highs (1 NL), the 2nd most NH’s in 2009, the 3rd most since 9/19/08. Advancers up 2.6x more than decliners $$8:07 PM Sep 9th from web

23. NYSE: 160 NH’s today, who can tell me the last date with more New Highs? We have now logged twelve 100+ NH days in 2009 $$12:22 AM Sep 9th from web

24. RT @TraderMike Employers’ hiring plans drop to record low (going back to 1962) $$ http://icio.us/tfuwje $$9:12 AM Sep 8th from web

25. Gold Rises to $1,000 an Ounce for First Time in Six Months on Dollar Drop $$9:04 AM Sep 8th from web

26. Our son’s christening was yesterday so I want to invest rather than savings. Dow 30 baby stocks ($JNJ, $WMT, $PG), Index fund. Suggestions?3:08 PM Sep 7th from web

27. **Read the last 2 paragraphs, understand them** RT @IBDeditorials “Envy is the driving force behind socialism.” http://bit.ly/a7kpU2:43 PM Sep 7th from web

28. “Socialism has bankrupted and failed every society, while capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty than any other system.”2:37 PM Sep 7th from web

29. RT Excellent @zaiteku -importance of investment process: http://tinyurl.com/m7wo6w $$12:11 PM Sep 4th from web

30. Excellent charts RT @dvolatility Chart Comparison of Four Bear Markets http://bit.ly/yupOd $$8:54 PM Aug 31st from web

31. $VMW – $36.03, one of the few stocks acting strong with vol support. Up 38% from 4/1 tweet @ $26.12, +20% from 4/8 tweet @ $30.099:19 PM Aug 30th from web

32. EXCELLENT CHART – RT @IBDeditorials History Lesson: Current bank failures not the worst ever – by far. http://bit.ly/461kTd $$10:05 AM Aug 30th from web

33. @timothysykes To add to my 1st response, Phimai Historical Park is in Nakhon Ratchasima. Am I right? One month free?9:54 AM Aug 30th from web in reply to timothysykes

34. @timothysykes You are sitting in front of Phimai historical park9:51 AM Aug 30th from web in reply to timothysykes

35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web

36. Stats say stocks are having their best 6-month rally since 1933, +52%. They rose more than 53% from 2/27/33 to 7/17/33 $$9:41 PM Aug 27th from web

37. What are Point and Figure Charts : http://bit.ly/38FvuE $HANS example from ’07 http://bit.ly/PUNVl $$9:41 PM Aug 26th from web

38. $MDAS – $23.11, up 10.42% on vol 286% larger than ave. Tweets 4/23 @ $16.79 +38%, 6/10 @ $17.49 +32% & 7/12 @ $18.26 +27%10:23 PM Aug 25th from web

39. $GS – $164.94, 6 wk flat base consolidation. Triple bottom breakdown would be below $158 on P&F chart. $171 is new high area5:25 PM Aug 25th from web

40. RT @howardlindzon If you are on recommended stocktwits list put tome tweets out between 2 mins to 4 and 10 after 4 to get on broadway $$3:41 PM Aug 25th from web

41. NYSE: 118-0 NH/NL diff, the strongest since 8/7/09 (130-0). NASDAQ was stronger as well at 75-3 $$8:45 PM Aug 24th from web

42. Learn to spot a climax top – example is $PLAT from 2/18/08 blog post http://bit.ly/7htvs. Charts talk so listen! $$8:39 PM Aug 23rd from web

43. $KNOT – $10.69, a rebound stock? I tracked it as a short in ’07 http://bit.ly/RudgZ and a buy in ’05 & ’06 http://bit.ly/ssb1w4:41 PM Aug 21st from web

44. Could you Trade Full Time? http://bit.ly/gFjmf Take this quick quiz and honestly determine if you are built to trade full time $$9:17 PM Aug 20th from web

45. “UPS & FedEx are doing just fine. It’s the Post Office that’s always having problems.”Barack Obama. And we want to privatize Health Care?10:16 PM Aug 19th from web

46. @wsProphet “Stick with shorting socks and don’t give these JO’s any more” True but a lot of people don’t want to short stocks $$11:56 AM Aug 19th from web in reply to wsProphet

47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web

48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web

49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

50. @zaiteku I wouldn’t short $RST or $KIRK – just noting the weakness. I would look to buy them in the future if they hold major trend lines9:20 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

51. $KIRK – 11.29, closed below the 50-d ma for first time since up-trend started in March near $3 per share. Retail hit hard today.9:47 PM Aug 17th from web

52. $RST – 20.63, Rosetta Stone rocked today, down 27% on vol 2,000% larger than ave. 3rd qtr earnings cut.9:45 PM Aug 17th from web

53. NASDAQ: down 2.8% today. The 1st negative NH/NL diff in more than a month: 8-11, -3. 7/13/09 last time at 11-19. Dec lead Adv by 8-to-1 $$8:50 PM Aug 17th from web

54. 51% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 200-d ma, levels not seen since 2007. 60% hasn’t been reached since 2003/2004. $$9:46 PM Aug 16th from web

55. 74% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-d ma, levels not seen since the summer of 2007 (overbought) $$9:43 PM Aug 16th from web

56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web

57. “The critical test in managing investments is individual judgment – the ability to interpret information correctly.” -RS Love4:03 PM Aug 12th from web

58. “An investor can have the latest facts but if he does not have the ability to arrive at the correct conclusion, he is bound to have trouble”4:03 PM Aug 12th from web

59. $RAX – $15.88, up 10.20% on volume 252% larger than ave. 1st tweet 6/9/09 @ $12.20, up 30%. Said: “Momentum stock, add on low volume dips”9:16 PM Aug 11th from web

60. @howardlindzon Well, I wouldn’t have the platform without you (stocktwits)! Glad you & others enjoy. Hopefully someone is making money! $$10:01 AM Aug 11th from web in reply to howardlindzon

61. $HMIN – $26.34, up 35% in less than one week (tweet 8/4/09 at $19.57 – NH that post with double top breakout, vol +221%)9:07 PM Aug 10th from web

62. $IPCM – $31.05, up 5.22% on volume 52% above ave. Up 23% since tweet on 6/17/09 at $25.349:05 PM Aug 10th from web

63. $SD – $11.76, darling of my blog last spring, ’08. Triple top breakout above $12. Up on heavy volume http://bit.ly/hAbR59:03 PM Aug 10th from web

64. Do you want a good risk-to-reward ratio? 1,000+ followers, only 242 Tweets. Quality, not quantity! I don’t waste people’s time! Follow $$8:45 PM Aug 10th from web

65. NYSE NH’s drop below 100 threshold for first time in more than a week. $$8:31 PM Aug 10th from web

66. Agreed RT @FinanceTrends Loeb’s “Battle for Investment Survival” one of the best books I’ve read on speculation & investing @derekhernquist8:29 PM Aug 10th from web

67. RT @upsidetrader Thomas Jefferson, 1802: ‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties (cont) http://tl.gd/cbq41:13 PM Aug 10th from web

68. Fantastic article about NH’s on NYSE: Meisler: Why Common Stocks Are Absent from New Highs http://bit.ly/zMzAU $$10:04 PM Aug 9th from web

69. Interesting: Homebuilders & REIT’s close week up on above ave volume w/ more bad news (Half U.S. mortgages underwater by 2011) $$9:51 PM Aug 9th from web

70. “The factors that make an ideal investment are never all present at the same time” GM Loeb $$4:58 PM Aug 9th from web

71. “It always was and always will be the power to understand and the ability to act that turns information into profits” GM Loeb4:57 PM Aug 9th from web

72. “I do not think anyone really knows when a particular security is “cheap” or “dear”…” GM Loeb @howardlindzon, good quote for $AAPL4:56 PM Aug 9th from web

73. “Diversification is a necessity for the beginner. On the other hand, the really great fortunes were made by concentration.” GM Loeb4:54 PM Aug 9th from web

74. “When governments pay the bills, then they want to interfere with how that money is going to be spent.” – Ron Paul3:14 PM Aug 9th from web

75. RT @wsmco china cutting taxes to spur economy. liberals here raising taxes. wonder which will work better spurring investment/innov/jobs11:41 AM Aug 9th from web

76. RT very cool @timothysykes Check Out This Cool Map Of Worldwide Internet Users [Picture] http://bit.ly/eWvQl11:38 AM Aug 9th from web

77. NASDAQ: Two days of distribution (down on above average volume). Negative pattern on P&F chart. NH’s 1/3 of Monday’s total $$10:50 PM Aug 6th from web

78. NYSE: NH’s still 100+ but Adv-Dec is negative the past two days $$10:40 PM Aug 6th from web

79. “When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong.” Humphrey Neill, factor behind economic booms & busts that blight civilization10:03 PM Aug 5th from web

80. Investors Intelligence Bulls jumped to 47.2% (not quite 50% yet – this level suggests a correction is due). $$9:33 PM Aug 5th from web

81. @rbanta Correct, both times showed us a correction (July 07 and May 08).9:31 PM Aug 5th from web in reply to rbanta

82. 6 of the top 10 stocks on IBD 100 are China based – total lack of US strength, especially common stocks (no where to be found) $$9:28 PM Aug 5th from web

83. NYSE NH’s last 5 days: 151, 158, 177, 110, 127, May 08 last time 5 days in a row. July 07 last time for 6+ consec days (17 total) $$7:53 PM Aug 5th from web

84. Happy to pass 1,000 followers – glad people enjoy what a have been writing the past few months.2:48 PM Aug 5th from web

85. REIT’s up on above ave volume: $AVB $SLG $BXP $BPO $SPG $VNO. REIT Index $RMZ has long tail up on P&F chart so look for base $$9:03 PM Aug 4th from web

86. $KIRK – $15.40, another new high – this one is on fire! 99 RS rating.8:36 PM Aug 4th from web

87. $EJ – $20.12, up 86% since 4/9/09 Tweet at $10.79 – My top performing stocktwits coverage (started on twitter 3/31/09)8:31 PM Aug 4th from web

88. $CXO – $34.86, up 5.51% on volume 119% larger than ave. Ascending triple top break-out on P&F chart8:28 PM Aug 4th from web

89. HMIN – $19.57, up 12.73% on volume 221% larger than ave. 92 RS rating & new 52-wk high. Double top break-out on P&F chart $$8:24 PM Aug 4th from web

90. Investor Intelligence Bulls: 42.2%, update due tomorrow (50%+ is extreme). AAII Sentiment: 48% $$8:17 PM Aug 4th from web

91. @TheKirkReport A lot of screens are empty or lacking these days – go figure. The market talking… $$3:50 PM Aug 4th from web in reply to TheKirkReport

92. NYSE: NH’s past three days: 177, 110, 127; NL’s: 4, 7, 7. May 2008 was the last time we had 3 100+ NH days. $$10:43 PM Aug 3rd from web

93. Must Read: New High New Low Data you can’t find anywhere else: http://bit.ly/pZYXj and if you can, show me where! $$1:23 PM Aug 3rd from web

94. RT @TheKirkReport Must read: Lessons from my dear friend Irwin T. Yamamoto… http://bit.ly/2V7eWsb1:22 PM Aug 3rd from web

95. All-Time Top 10 NASDAQ Daily New Highs: http://bit.ly/pZYXj What was the most new highs in one day, find out what year! $$8:56 AM Aug 3rd from web

96. Who can tell me the highest number of New Highs in one day for the NASDAQ, all time? All-time top 10 on my blog tomorrow. $$12:20 PM Aug 2nd from web

97. “The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.” – Walt Disney – The RE market is calling my name.9:13 PM Aug 1st from web

98. RT @copyblogger Consultant: Someone you call in at the last minute to share the blame. – Sounds like my day to day career (some clients).9:44 AM Aug 1st from web

99. @jmadden76 elections are in 3 years and no one can prop a market that long. Just follow the market, don’t try to predict or assume.5:35 PM Jul 31st from web in reply to jmadden76

100. In 1938, the S&P 500 rallied 46% in 147 days before crashing 85%. So far, the S&P 500 has rallied 46% in 145 days (Roberto Pedone) $$3:59 PM Jul 31st from web

7/11/09: DXO – $3.48, down more than 26% from sell calls. DXO gained more than 74% from my first twitter buy calls

Who says charts don’t work?

• 7/6/09: $DXO – 3.90, down 18% since my sell tweets in June. 6/10 @ 4.67 & 6/12 @ $4.76. Always ignore analysts, never ignore charts! 10:04 AM Jul 6th from web
• 7/6/09: RT 6/12/09 @cperruna $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices…charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 8:29 AM Jul 6th from web
• 6/12/09: $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices but the charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 6:38 AM Jun 12th from StockTwits
• 6/10/09: $DXO – $4.67, up 72% from 4/20 $2.72 twitter coverage. Lock in gains here, resistance above at 200d ma 11:18 PM Jun 10th from StockTwits
• 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.21, talk about blast off above $3.75 breakout. Made nice profit but sold too soon, ignoring my own chart analysis. Entry is gone 12:00 PM May 29th from StockTwits
• 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.03, it blasted past the $3.75 triple top breakout point, highlighted in this blog post, see P&F chart http://bit.ly/wTjX 9:07 AM May 29th from StockTwits
• 5/26/09: $DXO – $3.79, cashing in profits. See April twits on DXO, buy at $2.72. 11:00 PM May 26th from StockTwits
• 4/20/09: $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?). 9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• 4/6/09: $DXO – I am looking for the gap to fill down near $2.70; will grab short term shares between $2.50 – $2.70. Moving ave support at $2.55 8:26 PM Apr 6th from StockTwits
• 3/30/09: $DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup 8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

2/09/09 Blog Post:

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

• February 9, 2009: Oil Double Long ETN (DXO)
• December 12, 2008: Dollar falls, Crude up
• December 02, 2008: Dollars, T-Bonds and Crude Oil
• November 26, 2008: Oil a Value Buy?

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most…

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal…the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or a breakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume.

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.

The average gain of the stocks showing a profit is 26%.
The average loss of the stocks showing a loss is 11% (-5%, -8% and -21%).

The top performing position is DXO, currently up 65% with a peak gain above 70%. Following DXO is EJ at 56%, STAR at 50%, RVBD at 40%, FRPT at 32%, ARST at 26% and V & VMW tied at 25%.

Visa (V) has appeared the most with a total of eight mentions (I may be biased since it’s my largest personal holding). DXO has also been an active play of mine since 2008 so it has been the second most popular ticker in my tweets, appearing five times over the past two months (DXO first appeared on this blog last November as a speculative oil play).

I would like to emphasize that the stock down 21% (APEI) would have been cut for a smaller loss using simple money management tools but for purposes of this update, we’ll assume everything is still being held.

Below is the list of stocks highlighted on my Twitter account, listed in date order (starting on March 31, 2009):

• HTS: +7%, $26.15 from $24.35 on 3/31/09
• V: +25%, $69.28 from $55.60 on 3/31/09
• VMW: +25%, 32.59 from $26.12 on 4/1/09
• RVBD: +40%, $21.52 from $15.37 on 4/2/09
• STAR: +50%, $22.45 from $15.00 on 4/5/09
• CXO: +14%, $31.90 from $27.96 on 4/5/09
• DXO: +65%, $4.48 from $2.72 on 4/20/09 (1st posted on 4/6/09 at $3.07)
• EJ: +56%, $16.78 from $10.79 on 4/9/08
• ARST: +26%, $18.19 from $14.46 on 4/9/09
• FRPT: +32%, $9.36 from $7.09 on 4/13/09
• WMZ: +12%, $19.85 from $17.70 on 4/14/09
• CTCT: +10%, $20.14 from $18.36 on 4/20/09
• TNDM: +15%, $30.78 from $26.81 on 4/20/09
• CFL: +11%, $30.60 from $27.50 on 4/26/09
• PAR: +3%, $11.27 from $10.94 on 6/2/09
• APEI: -21%, $34.56 from $44.00 on 4/2/09
• MDAS: -5%, $15.90 from $16.79 on 4/23/09
• MELI: -8%, $23.62 from $25.60 on 5/12/09

If you haven’t joined already, take the few seconds to follow me on Twitter as the bulk of my analysis appears there weekly, if not nightly.

P.S. – the bragging title of this post probably signals a short term top in the market! As I wrote yesterday:

“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” – Bernard Baruch

• cperruna@fortune8 – $V entry is $61.50 , 12% stop (just below last dip). Risk is $7.38; reward long term is 5.2x at $100 and 3.86x at $90.less than 5 seconds ago from web in reply to fortune8
• $CFL – $27.50, new all time high for young stock. Alarms always up in poor economy; break-ins up at same time.1 minute ago from StockTwits
• $V – $60.38, technically, the pivot point is $61.50. All that is left is for the 50d to move above 200d – then look for $60-$100 move.6 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $STAR – $18.78, ready to make new 52-wk high. Closed Friday up 18% on volume 301% above ave. Watch it – trender12 minutes ago from StockTwits
• $RVBD – 17.81, up 15% last week on heavy volume. 50d moved above 200d ma (positive). Quadruple top breakout! About to challenge 52-wk high15 minutes ago from StockTwits
• RT @KeithShepard Global Warming Delusions (http://bit.ly/rWewn) “The evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin.about 23 hours ago from web
• $MDAS – $16.79, up 4.81% on volume 218% larger than ave. Looks like it is ready to move. 50d above 200d is all that’s left for long term7:29 PM Apr 23rd from StockTwits
• Rough day for longs: Only 308 advancing issues, the the third fewest on NYSE in 2009. 2,823 decliners, 4th highest total in ’09 $$11:03 PM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?).9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $TNDM – $26.81, watch this one, volume exploding but it is extended. I will grab shares at 50-d ma if given the chance.9:04 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CXO – $27.70, let’s see if 50d can recover 200d. Buy with strong move above $29 (triple top breakout on P&F).8:59 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $CTCT – $18.36, blasted above 200d last week on above ave volume. Entry was $17.50 on P&F charts. Keep an eye on it.8:58 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
• $FRPT – $7.67, up more than 10% on above ave volume. Up 8% since Monday’s mention. Like I said – $14 is next long term resistance1:46 PM Apr 16th from StockTwits
• $V – $58.33, challenging the 200d ma. Expect struggle here. Becomes long buy when 50d crosses above 200d ma. Will enter $60-$100 run10:37 PM Apr 14th from StockTwits
• $WMZ – $17.70, trending higher w/ 50d ma above 200d. All-time high not far off above $20. Up 2.5%, volume 188% above ave. Entry at 50d10:24 PM Apr 14th from StockTwits
• $FRPT – $7.09, low priced stock about to make new 52-wk high. Next resistance is $14 area. Not my cup of tea, but maybe you?10:12 AM Apr 13th from StockTwits
• $ARST – $14.46, like the young gun but it’s extended past any logical buy point (solid risk/ reward). $10 was ideal entry. Will gap fill?10:22 PM Apr 9th from StockTwits
• $EJ – $10.79, up 13% on volume 432% larger than the ave. 50d ma is about to cross above 200d ma. EPS rating is weaker than I like.10:18 PM Apr 9th from StockTwits
• The last back-to-back net double-digit NH-NL ratio for the NYSE happened on 5/29-5/30/08, +22 & +35. The market dropped 50% from there.8:21 PM Apr 9th from StockTwits
• NYSE: 13 new highs today, the most in 2009. All this with 0 new lows; net +13, tops since 9/19/2008 when we had +110. Market bottom? $$8:14 PM Apr 9th from StockTwits
• $VMW – up 9% on volume 93% larger than ave; strong move above 200d ma9:40 PM Apr 8th from StockTwits
• Market Bottoms: “The crowd is bargain hunting in what was; the knowing are buying what will be” – Justin Mamis; Can you say RIMM? $$10:38 PM Apr 7th from StockTwits

My goal is to target a few stock ideas and/or quick research snapshots that are crossing my screens. These are the same ideas that I log in my own notebook for potential trades or future reference. Now I can share my ideas again and not take up too much time formatting a blog post.

Follow me here:

twitter.com/cperruna

Here’s a sample of the tweets I have listed over the past few nights:

• We had 12 new highs and 2 new lows on the NYSE today – compare that to 3 NH’s and 705 NL’s on 3/3/09 – the trend is changing $$ – less than 20 seconds ago from StockTwits
• RVBD – nice recovery of the 200-d m.a. – longer term play with healthy market. Short term target is $18 (52-wk high area)…8 minutes ago from StockTwits
• APEI - triple top breakout on point & figure above $45 (short term buy). 50-d ma. must cross above 200-d m.a. before longer term buy…15 minutes ago from StockTwits
• VMW up on volume 135% larger than average; trading in range, $20 to $27 – short term buy above $27. 200-d MA may provide resistance…7:58 PM Apr 1st from StockTwits
• V in a trading range, EPS still solid, RS steady – $57-$60 is buy zone; it goes to $100 when the market moves but when is that…7:07 PM Mar 31st from StockTwits
• HTS is an interesting young stock, decent chart, volume up 180% today, not a buy yet (especially in this market)…6:52 PM Mar 31st from StockTwits
• DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup…8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

The charts of the stocks covered so far are listed below. So sign up for twitter and join me as I talk stocks. You can get it on your phone, facebook and many other places.

twitter.com/cperruna