Will Renren Run

Renren $RENN has been running downhill since its debut in May, from $20+ to $6.23. It’s trading at less than 1/3rd of its high on opening day. I am not surprised due to the overall market pulling back to major moving averages and support levels but the main reason is due to Chinese stocks taking a beating lately.

Several China based stocks have been scrutinized for faulty accounting and some shady government practices such as censorship. Renren takes that a step further due to a sudden resignation by a key board member before the IPO (this board member was the chief of its audit committee).

Renren is consider by many as the “Facebook” of China, with a population base at least 3-4 times grater than that of the United States. Renren is a social networking Internet platform in China that generates revenues from online advertising and Internet value-added services.

Revenues and total cash from operations have been increasing year-over-year but net income has not lived up to expectations. It does appear that the company has a boat load of cash and future earnings pan out as such:

FY 2011: -0.03
FY 2012: 0.03
FY 2013: 0.13

With all of that said, I wouldn’t touch this stock with a 10-foot pole since it doesn’t come anywhere near my technical criteria but something keeps pulling me back. I hope it’s not a gambling tingle but more of a hint of intuition knocking. I almost want to compare $RENN to $SIRI when it was trading in cents. $SIRI was crap and still wasn’t turning a profit but my intuition said to buy, at least a few thousands shares. I didn’t and now it’s up nearly 10-fold from that point. I know traders that did and have been paid off handsomely.

So Is RENN teasing me because of my SirusXM miss or is intuition correct again in telling me that this stock has been unfairly beaten down in a rough Chinese stock environment and overall market pullback?

Intuition says to grab shares and hold as a value/ rebound play. My “technical” rules say to STAY AWAY.
I think I’ll grab shares on Monday and tuck them away for a while.

Let’s see if breaking the rules comes back to haunt me. My leash will be slightly larger because my overall position size will be smaller than normal.

To give you an idea of a couple of stocks that my screens and rules are pointing me towards, check out $FIO and $BBRG. They are new IPO’s with earnings and sales growth with prices making new highs.

Let’s revisit all three in 3-6 months.

Share

Stocks near 200-d MA Support

The following spreadsheet consists of 175 stocks that are trending back towards their 200 day moving average while maintaining strong relative strength. It’s essentially a screen of the stocks that have potential to catch support at the 200-day moving average and lead the market IF (a BIG “IF”) it decides to resume the up-trend.

I’ll narrow down this list of 175 to 10 – 20 of the best, technically, in my opinion (later this week).

Take a look:

Share

Webinar: How to Make Money Trading Part Time

My webinar titled How to Make Money Trading Part Time is now posted for viewing by anyone that couldn’t make the live session or for further review.

The webinar highlighted the following topics:

The content covered is a high level overview of how I trade part time while managing a full time career and family as my top priorities. It can be done successfully but there are some key rules that must be followed in order to be consistently profitable.

Take a look and let me know if you have further questions, post them here in the blog comments (the webinar is an hour long with two Q&A sessions).

The interactive webinar link can be found here:
Webinar: How to Make Money Trading Part Time

Workshop slides can be found through this link in PDF format (please note that the chart case studies won’t work properly in static PDF format – the PDF is not interactive):
How-to-Make-Money-Trading-Part-Time

Lastly, I would like to thank Tim Bourquin from TraderInterviews.com for hosting this webinar and giving me a chance to perform this workshop both in person back in February in NYC and on the web.

Review these posts as a follow-up to the webinar, to reinforce the topics that I discussed:

I look forward to the next workshop and/ or webinar, thank you again!

Share

The Greatest Secret of Success

The greatest secret of success is: there is no secret!
Sorry to disappoint after that lead-in title but it’s the truth.

With that said, a positive mental attitude is the one simple trait that could be considered a secret that is shared among the world’s most successful people. After that, success is disguised as something called hard work.

“Anything in life worth having is worth working for!” – Andrew Carnegie

The problem with most people is that they are well on their way to success when an obstacle decides to block their path. Most people will attempt to jump this hurdle or blast through the challenging brick wall but when rejected, they decide to turn around, give up and walk away because the task is just too challenging. Most people don’t have the burning desire and persistence to realize their dreams because they feel it’s easier to just be average and carry on like 98-99% of the rest of the world.

“Before success comes in any man’s life, he’s sure to meet with much temporary defeat and, perhaps some failures. When defeat overtakes a man, the easiest and the most logical thing to do is to quit. That’s exactly what the majority of men do”. – Napoleon Hill

I recently posted the above quote to a friend on facebook and asked him: “So what will you do?” He was faced with some unfortunate failure in life and was feeling down but it appears that he’s getting up and will treat the failure as a temporary defeat. That’s admirable because everyone fails in life, a countless number of times, but it’s the people that continue to move forward with a definiteness of purpose that will achieve their dreams.

The following poem illustrates that no more effort is required to aim high in life than is required to accept misery and poverty. It takes less work to succeed than to fail so do what you are afraid to do:

My Wage by Jessie B. Rittenhouse:

I bargained with life for a penny
And life would pay no more
However I begged at evening
When I counted my scanty store

For life is just an employer,
He gives you what you ask,
But once you have set the wages,
Why, you must bear the task.

I worked for a menial’s hire,
Only to learn, dismayed,
That any wage I had asked of Life,
Life would have willingly paid.

A definite purpose backed by a burning desire is the first step towards achieving success. However, a definite PLAN, carried out in CONTINUOUS ACTION is required in order to get your dreams going. Thoughts and ideas are great but if they are NOT acted upon, they die inside your mind. Action is required to realize your dreams and NO one becomes successful without action (a lot of new age self-help guru’s and books focus on thoughts and desires but action is the key).

Close your mind to all negative and discouraging influences, especially negative family and friends. Lastly, your dreams will be accelerated by forming an alliance with one or more persons who will encourage you to follow through with your plan and purpose. Napoleon Hill called this The Master Mind which he defined as: “Coordination of knowledge and effort, in a spirit of harmony between two or more people, for the attainment of a definite purpose”.

I said that a positive mental attitude could be considered a possible secret to success, well, action would be the other because decisions without action are worthless!

I am architect, now working as a Owner’s Representative, writing a successful blog about the stock market, tweeting to thousands of followers, getting published in multiple books, have been interviewed on the radio and speaking at Expos in front of large audiences. Who would have ever thought? What’s next? Book writer, real estate developer, web entrepreneur, educator, motivational speaker…? Who knows but I can tell you one thing, if I think it, I’ll do it because I dream every day and I do what I am afraid to do and my life is consistently more successful.

“Some dream and never do. Others do and never dream. But then there are those very few who dream, and do what they dream”

I have only just begun…

Share

Sky-mobi MOBI is on Fire

Sky-mobi Ltd., $MOBI, has my most covered stock on twitter over the past month with 14 total posts, including today’s tweet. I first highlighted the stock on March 24, 2011 at $11.52 as it blasted up 21% on volume 495% larger than the average.

What did I recommend? ACCUMULATE!

I also complained that stocks like $MOBI don’t make the IBD 50 list quick enough. Well, the stock is now up 80% since I started to track it using IBD’s research tools and more than 100% since the actual run to new highs started. The overall run from the initial breakout after the IPO now has the stock up 300%.

Young stocks making new highs on HUGE volume (with low float) will typically always make AMAZING runs in a short period of time. Jump on them and enjoy the ride. Stop out if they reverse – keep it simple.

I talk about placing a stop to lock in minimum gains back on 4/15 – I still recommend a trailing stop, no less than the $15-$16 range to allow for normal pullbacks. I also talked about locking in gains overall after the 60% gain and I don’t have a problem with that advice, even at 80% plus gains now. The stock has powerful supporters taking it to new highs every week. I don’t have a problem with traders taking positions on low volume pullbacks.

Take a look at the charts and my tweets on $MOBI:

  • 4/27: $MOBI – 20.21, now up nearly 80% in 1 month. My most heavily covered stock on twitter since 3/23 – what a beauty!
  • 4/22: $MOBI – 16.81, up today but I alerted holders to take profits when it crossed $18 Tuesday morning, was a 60% gain from 3/23 coverage
  • 4/19: @StockTwits @DynamicHedge You missed $MOBI up 60% in less than 4 weeks.
  • 4/19: @timothysykes we both nailed $MOBI – nice job. Watch it make IBD’s list now, after the 50% run-up
  • 4/19: $MOBI – 17.94, lock in gains now. Up nearly 60% from $11.52 in March.
  • 4/18: $MOBI up over $17, nearly a 50% gain in 3 weeks from $11.52 coverage
  • 4/15: $MOBI is en fuego, up 35% at $15.60 from $11.52 twitter coverage. Place stop to lock in min 20-25% gain.
  • 4/14: $MOBI – 14.60, up 12.22% on volume 57% larger than ave | covered 3/23 at 11.52, +27% in 3 weeks : http://bit.ly/fA5lGh
  • 4/04: $MOBI higher again today, float is small at 7MM shares. It’s now beyond ideal risk/reward buy point. Up 15% from my coverage 2 wks back
  • 4/04: 5 Stocks to Watch this week: $LOGM – 46.08, $SODA – 46.80, $MMYT – 30.99, $SVN – 21.83, $MOBI – 12.85
  • 4/03: 5 Newbies to IBD 50: $TIBX, $MELI, $ENDP, $VPHM, $PRGO; not bad but they need to get quicker (earlier) with stocks like $MOBI
  • 3/28: @timothysykes This might be the 1st time we are tracking & trading the same stock, $MOBI (I am not a penny guy)
  • 3/24: Grabbing shares on any $MOBI pullback to $10 range on lighter volume. Outstanding shares tight w/ above ave volume support $$
  • 3/24: $MOBI – $11.52 was up 21.51% today on volume 495% larger than ave, blasting to an all-time high – accumulate $$

Share