Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW)

Stock of the Day – Case Study

Silver Wheaton Corporation
Silver Wheaton Corp., a mining company, engages in the silver production. It purchases silver from Luismin mines in Mexico and the Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden, as well as purchases silver from the Yauliyacu Mine in Peru.

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SLW – 10.48
The young stock is showing solid support above the 200-d m.a. with a breakout above $12.21 (resistance zone above $12 as shown in the weekly chart). The ideal entry is a move above $12.50 on the point and figure chart. Some may consider the current area an entry along the 200-d m.a.

Support also sits above $8 if the stock happens to violate the 200-d m.a. This support dates back to the trendline violation in May 2006.

2006 Return: 81.3%
52-week Range: $12.21 – $5.54

Earnings:
2006:
Q1: 0.07
Q2: 0.11
Q3: 0.09
Q4: —

2005:
Q1: 0.03
Q2: 0.04
Q3: 0.04
Q4: 0.04
Yearly: 0.15

2004:
Yearly: 0.02

**Click Image to Enlarge**
010307_slw_weekly.png

* All numbers in Millions
Revenue (yearly):
2006:
Q1: 25.17
Q2: 47.41
Q3: 41.77
Q4: —

2005:
Q1: 16.08
Q2: 19.26
Q3: 18.08
Q4: 17.47
Yearly: 70.90

2004:
Yearly: 10.99

ROE: 12.1%

Net Income:
2005: 25.3
2004: -0.05

Cash:
2005: 118
2004: 0.32

Cash Flow:
2005: 31.3
2004: 0.74

Number of Institutions:
Money Market: 69
Mutual Fund: 28
All Others: 5

Top Holder: Capital Research and Management Company
2.5 mil shares or $26 million
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $554 billion

ICE, BOT and ISE Updated

I wrote about the exchange stocks exactly two months ago, Exchange Stocks: ISE w/ ICE & BOT, and highlighted the case study with ISE which was building a cup shaped based. I noted that ISE was mostly likely the laggard among the group (which includes ICE and BOT) and I liked what I saw among these sister stocks. I actually closed the article with:

121006_ise_daily.png

“Both ICE and BOT have moved on to new 52-weeks highs so ISE may be seen as the laggard but the base is great. As long as a handle forms and a pivot point is established, I will enter at the ideal time only if the “M” in CANSLIM is cooperating. The major indexes are extended so I am not sure if this will all come together at the proper time but it is a very interesting development to watch. The stock is already up over 15% in six weeks on the MSW Index so we can always take profits if things turn badly!”

121006_ice_daily.png

All three stocks have made gains over the past two months but ISE has remained the laggard with a failed breakout above the established pivot point. Both ICE and BOT have made gains of 20% or more with ICE coming in at 27.30% as of Monday’s pre-opening price.

The group remains strong and the trend is still pointing higher for all three stocks but ideal entry areas have been passed. ICE is up about 50% on the MSW index while ISE is up only 10% but neither stock has given a major sell signal. With ISE currently trading around the 50-day moving average, I would suspect that some shorter term traders may be taking on speculative positions.

121006_bot_daily.png

In any event, this is just another classic example of how stocks travel in groups, hence the term “sister-stocks”.

Super Speculation – Yes – Tips are for Suckers

* NOTE – this is not a buy recommendation of any kind!

Many of you may have heard of Calpine and how they went into bankruptcy and how they are selling various parts of their business. I was recently having a conversation with someone in the industry (hedge fund) and they mentioned how several traders are going long Calpine (CPNLQ) on pure speculation based on rumors that the company may restructure and move forward. I don’t know if it is true but I took a look at the chart after his request and see that the stock is up several hundred percent on very heavy volume since late October but is extremely extended above the major moving averages for the first time in years. It closed at $0.91 on Tuesday (down from the $1.23 peak) as some people believe it is worth $6 per share.

CPNLQ Daily

I have no idea if this is true and I have always been taught that TIPS ARE FOR SUCKERS so please beware if you decide to speculate with extreme risk. I take this information as a tip even though my friend is a childhood buddy but I am curious to watch what will happen.

Again – this is by no means a recommendation to buy and major losses could occur if you were to speculate in this stock (I must make these statements to protect the legal aspect of my words). None of the stocks on this blog are buy or sell recommendations; just equity research based on specific criteria as noted in my disclaimers!

I prefer to buy stocks making new highs and I am not a bottom fisher. The only reason I even present this stock is because a very good friend of mine asked me to look at the chart and I thought I would share since I did the analysis.

Disclosure: I do not own any shares in Calpine (CPNLQ)!

-Chris

Listen to your Wife, KNOT

The next time your wife is so engrossed into something, pay more attention. I was married in 2004 and my wife planned basically everything on The Knot.com and was addicted to the site (the same way I am addicted to the market � ok, she’s not as bad as me). If you speak to my wife, I am actually addicted to the computer; not the market. 
Anyway, she used The Knot every day and told all of her friends how great the site was and they too started to use it (many of them became addicted). I am not embellishing the story as they were all extremely addicted to the tools, gadgets and services that The Knot had to offer.  

Knot_weekly

I realized that the company had public stock after if popped up on a CANSLIM screen in 2005 (long after we were married) so I started to study the chart and the financials. Everything looked great and I was ready to buy but am skeptical of stocks trading below $10 per share. To me, I wanted the stock to prove itself before I could place a sizeable position when it was still trading below $20 per share without much institutional attention. I told my wife that I would use some of our speculation dollars to place a position for her. We would essentially call it her stock. She agreed but isn�t very interested in the market so I put it on the backburner but started to cover the stock heavily on MSW. Financials were and still are solid, the chart was and still is trending higher and it kept making new 52-week highs � my bread and butter (the CANSLIM way).

So what is The Knot? (from their site):

The Knot (http://www.theknot.com/) is the most comprehensive resource for couples seeking information and services to help plan their weddings and their future lives together.

The Knot Inc., Weddings for the Real World, is one of the world’s leading wedding media and services companies, providing today’s to-be-weds with comprehensive wedding planning information, interactive tools, and resources. With a fresh voice and real-world sensibility, The Knot has extended its brand to every venue brides and grooms turn to plan their weddings — online at the #1 wedding website, TheKnot.com, and on newsstands and in bookstores nationwide.

Shortly after securing seed financing from America Online, The Knot Inc. secured additional rounds of funding from industry giants Hummer Winblad Venture Partners and QVC, Inc. In December 1999, The Knot raised $35 million in its initial public offering. And in February 2002 The Knot received additional backing from The May Company.

With over 2 million unique members and more than 4,200 new members a day, The Knot has the largest audience — bar none — of wedding-obsessed, cash-wielding brides.

Each year approximately 2.4 million couples get married in the United States, generating approximately $70 billion in retail sales annually. Presumed to be a once-in-a-lifetime occasion, a wedding is a major milestone and, therefore, consumers tend to allocate significant budgets to their weddings and related purchases.

The average amount spent on a wedding is approximately $20,000, excluding the honeymoon. (I wish my wedding only cost $20k; I could have taken the other half and placed it into The Knot and paid for everything and then some, all for a long term capital gain.)
*********End************

Since my initial coverage in August 2005, I actually placed the KNOT onto the MSW Index on 10/28/05 at $11.37 for a current 13 month gain of 142%. The stock is up 192% from August 11, 2005, the first official day I studied the stock and placed it on a MSW daily screen. I never bought the shares for my wife and regret every minute of the decision because I was only using speculation dollars and the risk wasn�t too bad as the stock was trending higher. I admit that I am uncomfortable buying low priced stocks and could have cut it if it reversed but it never violated the 200-d moving average so I would have held the entire time (for her).

She found and used a great service, a product that makes brides-to-be extremely addicted and I missed the opportunity when it stared me in the face! I knew it, I talked about it and even recommended it to a community of hundreds of investors but didn�t pull the ultimate trigger myself. The stock hit an all-time high yesterday at $27.53 and has been increasing volume since early 2005 as I would assume that institutional investors are finally jumping into a stock that makes money from a cash happy demographic. They fill a niche and turn a healthy profit so I consider them a solid stock. It is currently extended for an entry but I will continue to monitor the shares into the future.

Listen to your wife, especially when everything makes complete sense (it�s not too good to be true)!

Here are some of the analysis entries from MSW in 2005:

8/11/05:
Interesting Stocks forming bases:
KNOT � 9.41, deep cup shaped base that has shot up over 20% in the past two weeks. I was married not too long ago and I�m familiar with this company, due to my wife. Look for a handle to form on the right side of the base.

9/26/05:
KNOT � 11.30, the Knot has made five daily screens and I told many of the husbands or husbands to be to ask their significant others about this website and company. They are creating quite the buzz in the wedding world, especially here in the metro NY area. The stock is not perfect but the company is starting to turn a nice profit on brides-to-be. Up 20% since our first Daily screen on 8/11/05 at $9.41.

10/24/05:
KNOT � 13.50
, up 4.09% on volume 220% larger than the 50-d m.a. We have been screening the Knot Inc. since it crossed $10 per share. It is now extended but it is still in a solid up-trend.

10/25/06:
KNOT � 13.84, up another 2.52% on volume 126% above the average but I do see a pullback in the near future. The stock is moving up too high too fast to sustain this type of advance. A pullback should present a new buying opportunity back near $11.50 to $12.

10/29/05 � Weekly Screen Debut
KNOT � 11.37, I have been following the stock on the daily screens for two months as the stock became extended. With the recent move back to the 50-d m.a., the stock is now on our watch list.

11/17/05:
KNOT � 12.35
, I have screened the stock several times over the past two months as it holds the 50-d m.a. support. Today�s move on volume 158% larger than the average shows that this small company has some punch. Trust me guys (that aren�t married), brides to be can spend a lot of money and the industry seems to be recession proof for the most part. Today was a triple top breakout on the P&F.

Removed on 1/7/06 from the weekly screen! � What a mistake (it wasn�t too good to be true)!

Blog Mentions in 2006:

7/17/06:
http://marketstockwatch.blogspot.com/2006/07/msw-market-overview.html
Looking at the MSW Watch list from last week, we see one solid stock:
KNOT: -1.29% (down less than the major averages)

1/26/06:
http://marketstockwatch.blogspot.com/2006/01/mini-daily-screen.html
KNOT � 14.44, as you know, we cut the stock from the MSW Index when it fell below the 50-d m.a. but it has since reversed, gathered strength and moved to new highs. It will not be back on the Index but I thought it deserved some notice.

1/8/06:
Recent MSW Index Results
Another stock has been removed (KNOT) but it was showing a 2% gain when it was cut yesterday. I decided to remove the stock before the very small gain turned into a loss.

12/4/05:
Using Stock Research Services
Our double digit gainers over the past two weeks include: AAPL, NWRE, CUTR, ESRX, OXPS, KNOT, HANS, & LMS. Three of them were priced within the $60-$100 range as these impressive gains accumulated over the Thanksgiving holiday.

Piranha

Is BOT the Next CME? – March 1, 2006

I wrote a blog post one week ago today reviewing the CBOT case study I did back in March 2006 which was originally titled:

Is BOT the next CME

After today, BOT is now part of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME)!

The world’s biggest financial exchange announced on Tuesday it would acquire rival CBOT Holdings, Inc. (BOT) for more than $8 billion in a deal that would combine the two largest U.S. futures exchanges.

It’s funny and ironic that I also just posted up a thread on Tuesday, October 10, 2006 titled: Exchange Stocks: ISE w/ ICE & BOT

When your hot, your HOT!

Piranha

p.s. – This could be a great story over at WallStrip – What do you think guys and gals?