I hate to bottom-fish as the market’s garbage lies along the floor of the exchanges. However, I have been highlighting Calpine over the past several months (12/6/06) as it has moved from $0.97 to $2.12. I have clearly indicated the institutional accumulation on the daily and weekly charts and even backed them up with official institutional reports in a post titled Calpine Comeback? (3/15/07)

Yes, the stock is speculative but I just can’t ignore the accumulation on up-days. The stock has been falling on ligher volume and gaining large chucks on huge volume.

Market makers? Pumpers? Schemers?

Something tells me no in this case and I went out and bought shares in a sub $10 stock to follow my beliefs. As I disclosed in my last blog post, I grabbed shares at $1.31 although the position is much smaller than my typical size due to the speculative nature of the trade. However, if the stock makes a comeback, I will be rewarded handsomely on my shares with very low risk. The position is now up 59% at the end of the day today after a 17% gain on volume double the daily average.

The article below makes me feel good but I will continue to trade the charts in this stock, not the news and see where it takes me. So far, so GOOD! (I still prefer buying a $130 stock such as NMX but CPNLQ is making new 52-week highs).

Calpine gets bids from firms, companies-sources
By Caroline Humer and Michael Flaherty

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - Bankrupt Calpine Corp. (CPNLQ.PK) has received offers from financial and corporate buyers, including at least one bid for the entire company, according to sources familiar with the situation, in the latest sign of a revival in demand for power generating companies.

Read more »

Stock of the Day
Houston Wire and Cable Company
Tuesday’s Intra-day Price: HWCC – $25.18

As I said late last week, HWCC is a stock showing solid CANSLIM characteristics and a chart pattern that is trending higher with an ideal entry above the 50-d m.a. or near support at $23. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that a favorable risk-to-reward entry point can be established along the trendline near $23.

We have had two distribution weeks in the past month but support has not been violated. I can also say that fund managers are accumulating the stock by looking at the most recent institutional numbers below. Finally, the PEG ratio is excellent at 0.54 and earnings increased by 135% year-over-year from 2005 to 2006. HWCC is the type of CANSLIM stock that can double or triple over the next couple of years with its fair share of up-and-down swings.

Next Earnings Date: June 2007
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Institutional Holdings:
Held by Institutions:
Money Market: 81
Mutual Fund: 72
Other: 3

Top Holder: Wells Fargo & Company
2.005 mil Shares for < 0.01% of Portfolio
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $86.3 billion

New Positions: 66
Positions sold out: 22
Shares bought: 8.9 mil
Shares Sold: 2.9 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $240 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $79 mil

Read more »

Well, I played!
I played well but I didn’t finish in first or in the money.
Aside from the top prize of high quality links worth up to $1,000,000, the next five positions paid a total of $5,000 which was offered by Full Tilt Poker.

Only 38 bloggers (a little surprised) showed up to play in the tournament so my odds were high to finish “in the money” but I just couldn’t pull it out. I was trying to win and represent the stock bogging community but came up short. Here’s a list to all the participants of the 2nd SEO Poker Tournament.

I was the chip leader early on as you can see in the screenshot above. We all started with a stack of 3,000 chips and I quickly placed an all-in bet against another blogger and won with a straight versus two pairs. He slow-played the two pairs and I completed my straight draw on the turn. I just called his bet after making my straight and then pushed all-in after the river, hoping he would call. He did and I was now the chip leader but it was early in the tournament as 94% of the players were still game.

After a few rounds of play, some juggling of the players to different tables and a player break, I found myself in fourth place with 9,000 chips. The leader had about 14,000 chips at this time but I was still in excellent shape.

With 15 players left, I was dealt A-9 off-suit and decided to call a small raise from the small blind. Lucky for me, 7-9-9 came on the flop and I was now tempted to slow play a very powerful trips hand with top kicker. I called another small raise from a player and looked towards the turn. An eight fell and the board now looked like this: 7-9-9-8

I was first to bet with a pot near 1,000 chips and blinds at 150 & 300 (my stack was near 8,000 chips and my opponent was near 7,000 if I remember correctly). I bet out with 1,200 chips and he raised, to my surprise. I now thought he was bluffing or had the nuts with a 10-J. I was already pot committed so I got pissed and pushed all-in with my three 9’s and was called. A queen flipped on the river and he won with a straight and I was devastated late in the tournament with 1,100 chips and large blinds (relative to my new short stack).

I should have never slow-played the flop and placed a large enough bet to make him fold his draw before the turn. Like trading, you must take what is yours and I didn’t and got caught the same way I caught a player earlier in the tournament. My thinking was to take a substantial win which translates into greed and I was taught a lesson. Greed is bad in poker and in trading.

After the huge loss, I pushed all-in the next three hands and doubled my stack to 2,300 chips but was still in bug trouble as the leaders were now above 20,000 chips. On my final all-in, I had K-Q and I was called by someone with K-J (both hands were off-suit). I was dominating this hand and had great hopes of doubling-up once again but the flop came and a JACK was the middle card. My tournament ended with the flip of two more cards and I finished in 12th place. Half-way to the money (sixth place paid $450 in cash).

Overall, it was fun but I felt I could have placed in the money and will once again look to learn from my slow-play of a hand that was mine prior to the turn. The problem is: I gave it away with a thought of greed!

Congratulations to dnic24 of the PokerOwnageDOTcom Poker Forum for winning the grand prize.

The stocks listed today are some of the top candidates on my buy list for trend opportunities over the next several months. Each of these stocks has been screened numerous times on the MSW Index in 2007 and will be featured on the NEW MarketStockWatch.com that will be released in late April.

I am changing the MSW format to a service that generates revenues strictly from advertising rather than subscriptions. I am excited to release my research such as daily screens, weekly screens, the MSW Index and the MSW Portfolio to everyone for free. I will have the new site up and running when I return from my trip to Hawaii in April. I am looking forward to the trip to clear my head from the recent events in my life and to start a new venture for my equity research company.

I would like to thank the 700+ members that signed up for at least a trial subscription to MSW over the past two years; it was a great ride and I enjoyed every minute of it! Don’t worry, the new version of MSW will be even better as I will move to a blog format so I can incorporate images easier and post on a more frequent basis with total control of the site.

Now, here are the top 10 stocks I am watching for my own Portfolio (in no special order):

• EDU – 43.69, the stock has been acting excellent over the past several weeks during the market drop as it actually offered a key entry above $34 to start the month. The MSW Index stop loss area was $30 so EDU is very much a candidate. The ideal entry is near the 50-d m.a.
• CBEY – 29.03, the stock has been consolidating over the past four months without violating the 200-d m.a. so that is positive but recent volume has been increasing on distribution days. It is a buy if it holds support above the 200-d m.a.
• FTI – 69.26, the stock came to the MSW Index as a possible $60-$100 candidate and has held up very well in March with an 8% gain and a 17% gain in 2007. Ideal trend buys above the moving averages or the $64 support area.
• ICON – 21.22, the stock hasn’t moved much over the past couple of months but the consolidation is welcomed after the large two year run from $4 to $23 (475% gain). My ideal area to grab shares is along the 200-d m.a. and I will wait for this potential opportunity (I will not chase).
• NMX – 136.31, I purchased the stock in January at $119 but I sold after the large declines in exchange stocks for a small profit earlier this month. That’s too bad because it is now back above $136 and showing solid action on the weekly chart. I am looking to reestablishes shares with $130 as the current pullback target.
• KNOT – 23.54, a very interesting stock that is currently catching support along the 200-d m.a. for the third time in two years. The huge distribution from February concerns me so I will need to see some up-ticks accompanied by strong volume before I enter.
• COGO – 17.80, the stock recently offered an entry along the 200-d m.a. but I couldn’t take advantage of the trade setup due to personal circumstances (my father’s death). I am not one to trade during extreme emotional events. Anyway, I am looking for a new setup to form before grabbing shares as I won’t chase a poor risk-to-reward setup. The triple top breakout was above $17 on the point and figure chart
• ZUMZ – 41.83, the stock is now acting well after being placed onto the MSW Index at $35.81 with an original buy at $32 and a target of $40 (this was accomplished). The stock started to make my screens just when WallStrip was making a video on the company. Weekly accumulation versus distribution looks solid. We now need a new setup to form in order to grab shares or add to an existing position.
• LVS – 91.25, the stock was a superstar in my own personal portfolio last year and has since been sold but I am now interested in a new position as it looks to be holding support above the long term 200-d moving average. I would like to see stronger volume during up-weeks before taking this venture once again.
• HWCC – 25.34, a new candidate to the MSW Index in March as the stock shows excellent CANSLIM characteristics and a chart pattern that is trending higher with an ideal entry above the 50-d m.a. or near support at $23.

To see all of these charts and much more (90 charts in all), visit my personal chart’s page over at StockCharts.com. I do need to update my annotations but give me some time because I am just getting back into the research this week.

Enjoy the Weekend!

The stocks listed below are all trading within 10% of the 200-day moving average and have been leaders over the past year. Fundamentals are better than the majority of the peers in their industry groups and the technicals show potential opportunities. Many of the possible opportunities will struggle if the market takes a turn for the worse so please understand the ‘M’ in CANSLIM.

They are not recommened buys so please do you own due diligence!
This screen is performed nightly looking for stocks that are trading higher within the set parameters. These include fundamentally sound stocks with increasing earnings, a gain during the day today and preferably a move on above average volume.

A Few Interesting Stocks within 10% of the 200-d m.a.:

• BIDU – 100.97, the recent $60-$100 candidate has corrected from highs near $134 to catch some support at the long term moving average. The point and figure chart suggests positive action if the stock holds support

  

• SHLD – 179.16, the stock is consolidating once again but my ideal entry would be closer to the 200-d m.a. near $165.

  

• DLLR – 25.39, the first correction to the 200-d m.a. since 2006. It will become an ideal trend buying opportunity if the support is held. Look for the RS line to reverse back to the up-side

  

• ANDE – 42.54, the stock is trading flat to slightly higher over the past few months. Any rebound could take the stock back towards $60 (a nice risk-to-reward ratio)

  

• CSH – 42.50, the recent superstar stock is finally touching the 200-d m.a. for the first time since 2005. Any support in this area is a solid trend buy

  

• HITT – 41.07, the stock is forming a basing pattern above the 200-d m.a. which shows some strength. The point and figure chart shows a negative trend forming but a move above $45 will reverse that outlook

  

• CRVL – 31.85, the stock made a tremendous run from $11 to $49 but has recently corrected to the 200-d m.a. near $30. I am not sure if this is a dead cat bounce but support in this area will signal a potential basing pattern and possible opportunity

  

• EZPW – 15.54, the stock has caught some support three times over the past two months at the 200-d m.a. but volume has been weak. Possibly a cup or saucer shaped pattern above the long term average