My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Crushes the Markets, AGAIN

My wife’s so-called “personal mutual fund” returned 22.72% from August 5, 2014 through to last Friday, February 19, 2016 (approximately 18 months).

As a comparison, the following stock market indices performed as follows:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.23%
S&P 500: -0.13%
NASDAQ Composite: 3.48%

Her buying habits CRUSHED the general markets, by a HUGE margin, just as they had from the day we were married back in 2004.

2016_02-21_Wife-Mutual-Fund-Image02

The personal mutual fund (as outlined in the blog post, My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Outperforms the Pros, back on August 6, 2014), highlighted 22 stocks of companies whose products or services she religiously buys or uses on a daily or weekly basis.

Of the 22 stocks, 20 show gains while only two show a loss ($KORS and $XOM). The top five leaders are as follows:

  • Amazon ($AMZN) leads the pack with a 71% gain
  • Home Depot ($HD – actually my store) is second with a 56% gain
  • Starbucks ($SBUX) comes in third with a 53% gain
  • Netflix ($NFLX) is up 47%, a service used by the entire family
  • Facebook ($FB) is up 43%: yes I admit it, we are both addicted (very bullish going forward)

This is simple investing logic (for our family) as we use the products and services of these five companies every day (HD being the lone exception for daily use, but monetarily, it may lead the pack).

Amazingly, 14 of the 22 stocks show a double digit gain:
$AMZN $HD $SBUX $NFLX $FB $V $TJX $COST $TGT $CVS $GOOG $MA $PEP $DIS

The other six positive stocks show a gain between 0.1% and 9.94%:
$VZ $JNJ $PG $COH $AAPL $WFC

For the second time in less than two years, I am convinced that my skills, or lack thereof, are no match for the power of my wife’s product and service buying habits. Hands down, her habits are kicking the market’s a$$ and my a$$ for that matter.

Who needs a financial advisor or one of these “trendy” new robo advisors when I can just copy what she is buying and doing?

As I said back in 2014:

Peter Lynch subscribed to the idea of “know what you own”. I know what my wife owns and can take the lesson that many other wives (and people in general) are buying what she is buying. Consumers = profits and profits typically lead to earnings which leads to a rise in share prices. Sounds like a simple formula.

The formula is WORKING!

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A Recap of Stock Trends for 2015

In the blog post, Stock Trends for 2015, twenty-eight stocks were identified as represented by six trends over the course of the year with the following results:

The lazy man’s portfolio had a total gain of 12.79%

  • 18 stocks ended in positive territory
  • 10 stocks ended in negative territory

NOTE 01: by “lazy man”, I mean that the 28 stocks would have been bought and held all year without any buy and sell rules. Clearly, the exercise was for observational purposes ONLY.

Comparison to US Markets:

  • NASDAQ: +5.94%
  • S&P 500: -0.69%
  • DJIA: -2.29%

Comparison to All World Markets:

  • All Markets (Average): -10.20%
  • Fifteen stocks logged double digit gains.
  • One stock logged a triple digit gain.
  • Six stocks logged double digit losses.
  • The big winner was Amazon.com, $AMZN, with a gain of 132.47%, moving from $290.74 to $675.89
  • The big loser was Barracuda Networks, $CUDA, with a loss of -47.40%, moving from $35.51 to $18.68

2016_01-02_AMZN_wkly

It’s interesting to note that CUDA was actually showing a 22% gain in April 2015, running as high as $46.78 before crashing in the summer and ending the year at $18.68.

Six of the ten leading gainers started with a triple digit share price while the bottom three losers all started below $40 per share. One may argue that this outcome further confirms the observation from William O’Neil:

“What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower.”

Of the six trends, the groups performed as follows:

Digital Wallets (currency) & Mobile Payments, +43.53%

  • The group was up a collective 43.53%
  • Companies in group: $AMZN $GOOG $V $MA $AAPL
  • 5 of the 6 stocks showed a gain
  • 1 of the 6 stocks showed a loss (less than 1%)
  • The leading gainer was AMZN at 132.47%
  • The leading loser was AAPL at -0.69%

Self Driving Cars (Future of driving), +37.35%

  • The group was up a collective 37.35%
  • Companies in group: $NVDA $GOOG $TSLA $MBLY
  • All 4 stocks showed a gain
  • The leading gainer was NVDA at 65.13%
  • The trailing gainer was MBLY at 10.48%

Drones & Unmanned Aircraft, +9.25%

  • The group was up a collective 9.25%
  • Companies in group: $NOC $AVAV $LMT $BA $TXT $LLL
  • 4 of the 6 stocks showed a gain
  • 2 of the 6 stocks showed a loss (both less than 5%)
  • The leading gainer was NOC at 23.14%
  • The leading loser was LLL at -4.90%

Biotech, +5.68%

  • The group was up a collective 5.68%
  • Companies in group: $REGN $ILMN $CELG $JUNO
  • 2 of the 4 stocks showed a gain
  • 2 of the 4 stocks showed a loss
  • The leading gainer was REGN at 32.83%
  • The leading loser was JUNO at -12.31%

Social & Web based brands, -2.43%

  • The group was down a collective -2.43%
  • Companies in group: $FB $LNKD $BABA $TWTR
  • 2 of the 4 stocks showed a gain
  • 2 of the 4 stocks showed a loss
  • The leading gainer was FB at 39.21%
  • The leading loser was TWTR at -37.98%

Cyber Security, -4.86%

  • The group was down a collective -4.86%
  • Companies in group: $PANW $CYBR $CHKP $QLYS $RDWR $CUDA
  • 3 of the 6 stocks showed a gain
  • 3 of the 6 stocks showed a loss
  • The leading gainer was PANW at 40.90%
  • The leading loser was CUDA at -47.40%

NOTE 02: none of the figures above include dividends
NOTE 03: Google (Alphabet) $GOOG is represented in two groups when results are separated by trends

Of the twenty-eight stocks listed in 2015, I will definitely give a look and consider the following heading into 2016: AMZN, FB, GOOG, V, MA, TSLA, BABA, CYBR

Although many of these stocks have been up for one, two or even three plus years, don’t let that discourage you until the trend changes.

“The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends.” – Ed Seykota

2015_12-31 - Watch List- Dec-sm

Stock Trends for 2016 will be issued shortly.

Stock Trends for 2015

I’m always in search of trends that may offer solid investment opportunities (using individual stocks) but at the same time may not be “bleeding edge” technology. The best performing trend trading stocks don’t have to be unknown or highly touted IPO’s but rather they can be established companies. In searching for trends in 2015, the list of stocks I have developed is a combination of small growth, IPOs and established names.

So let’s identify a few trends that should continue to grow in 2015 and then identify a few stocks within each of these groups that could provide some upside. One caveat: the overall health of the market must be positive in order for the majority of these investments to do well.

Six trends come to mind:

  • Cyber Security
  • Biotech
  • Digital Wallets (currency) & Mobile Payments
  • Drones & Unmanned Aircraft
  • Self Driving Cars (Future of driving)
  • Social & Web based brands

Cyber Security
$CYBR, $PANW, $CHKP, $CUDA, $QLYS, $RDWR

One of the obvious trends that should continue in 2015 is cyber security as breaches at major corporations around the world continue. Home Depot, Target, Staples, Michael’s and most recently Chick-Fil-A have all admitted to being “hacked”. And who can forget about the fiasco at Sony (whatever the real story may be). These companies and especially financial institutions must spend more money to protect their servers, clouds, data and integrity. This is precisely why I initiated a position in the cyber security sector in late 2014 and will continue to add to the position (at ideal risk / reward entries), using multiple stocks to diversify within this growing trend. One idea I have considered is building my own cyber security motif which would likely include several of the stocks listed above. Taking that idea further, a motif containing many of stocks listed in today’s overall blog post is a possibility as well.

2015_01-18_CyberSecurity_6mth

Biotech
$ILMN, $JUNO, $CELG, $REGN

The next trend that I like is biotech (a carry-over from 2014) and the big winner over the past several years has been Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. I have had the unique perspective of working with $REGN as they have expanded their headquarters in Tarrytown, NY; consulting for them (Real Estate & Construction) since January 2010 when the stock traded at $25 per share – it’s now trading above $400. Due to this professional relationship, I have mostly avoided talking about the stock on the blog and twitter.

With that said, I still like the broad sector. Illumina was a rock star in 2013 but traded mostly sideways in 2014. I liked the action in 2014 and view it as a long term flat-type base that looks poised to breakout above $200 per share. Sounds expensive, right? So did REGN at $100, $200 and $300 (after running from $25). $ILMN made a breakthrough in DNA sequencing and looks poised to continue that trend as well as expand elsewhere.

Next up is Juno Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company that engages in developing cell-based cancer immunotherapies. The company develops cell-based cancer immunotherapies based on its chimeric antigen receptor and T cell receptor technologies to genetically engineer T cells to recognize and kill cancer cells. Young IPO stocks are risky and typically like to build bases within the first year of trading but I am placing $JUNO on the list (use caution with first year IPOs). Cancer is not going away and the fight against it will continue to grow.

Both CELG and REGN can be added to a portfolio as their businesses continue to be cash cows.

2015_01-18_BioTech_6mth

Digital Payments (currency) & Mobile Wallets
$AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, $V, $MA

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My Wife’s Personal Mutual Fund Outperforms the Pros

I’ve mentioned this before on the blog and have joked about it several times on twitter but going forward, I’m paying attention, close attention.

To what, you may ask…?

To what my wife is buying and using! As she buys, I will buy, but my purchases will be shares.

Take a look at the following examples since we have been married (we married in 2004):

  • Apple $AAPL (iPhone, iMac, iPad, iTunes, apps, etc.)
  • Starbucks $SBUX (Caramel macchiato)
  • Google $GOOG (Search: computer & phone)
  • Amazon $AMZN (Prime, enough said!)
  • Facebook $FB (Every day)
  • Costco Wholesale $COST (Member since before we were married)
  • Target $TGT (The go-to store)
  • Coach $COH (Several hand bags; even my own business bag)
  • Michael Kors $KORS (Watches & accessories)
  • CVS Caremark $CVS (The go-to pharmacy)
  • Netflix $NFLX (Movies and streaming online series)
  • Walt Disney Co $DIS (Mickey Mouse, need I say more)
  • Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (Kids!)
  • Procter & Gamble $PG (Household)
  • Visa $V (Credit & debit)
  • MasterCard $MA (Credit)
  • Pepsico $PEP (Gatorade, Pepsi, etc.)
  • TJX Companies $TJX (TJ Max, Marshalls, Home Goods, etc.)
  • Home Depot $HD (Projects and equipment)
  • Verizon $VZ (Phone and FiOS)
  • Exxon Mobil $XOM (Gas)
  • Wells Fargo $WF (Banking)

My wife religiously buys or uses products from the companies above on a daily and weekly basis. A simple buy and hold plan, including all of the names above, would have outperformed my gains over the past 10 years. It’s easy in hindsight to make this analysis but I am telling you – I will be watching closely as to what new companies make it on her radar.

2014_08-06_AAPL_10yr

In addition to my wife, I will also be closely watching the names of the companies that my kids get involved with (young at this point but the future is theirs). It’s not a ground-breaking game-plan but appears to be more lucrative than my plan of searching for the next growth industry or 10-bagger. Without her knowing it, my wife’s mutual fund would be comprised of a strategy employed by the great Peter Lynch.

According to sources, Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, during which time the fund’s assets grew from $20 million to $14 billion. Even more impressive, Lynch reportedly beat the S&P 500 Index benchmark in 11 of those 13 years, achieving an annual average return of 29%.

Peter Lynch subscribed to the idea of “know what you own”. I know what my wife owns and can take the lesson that many other wives (and people in general) are buying what she is buying. Consumers = profits and profits typically lead to earnings which leads to a rise in share prices. Sounds like a simple formula.

2014_08-06_SBUX_10yr

Don’t get me wrong, I haven’t completely ignored the stocks above as I have owed a few of the names but I haven’t owned them long enough or with enough quantity. Rather than “owning” them, I have been trading them (in short term periods).

In addition to the solid companies above, I am still more attracted to finding the next great growth stock within a great industry. I like to search for cutting edge technology or innovative companies that will lead a new revolution. I research and buy names such as $DDD (3D Systems), $INVN (Invensense), $TWTR (Twitter), $SLCA (US Silica), $TSLA (Tesla) – all of which aren’t on my wife’s “buy list”. She’s aware of Twitter and maybe Tesla but doesn’t use their products or services. Other than me yapping about what I am researching, she would not know the difference between $DDD and $SPLK. Perhaps that’s a message to me…?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, now that she knows, understands and occasionally eats from their establishments.

I am sure a few of the companies she uses haven’t performed all that great but the vast majority have been excellent.

So, forget my mutual fund and forget the pros and their fees. I should create my wife’s mutual fund and ride those profits into the retirement sunset!

10-Year Charts of My Wife’s Mutual Fund:

2014_08-06_GOOG_10yr

2014_08-06_AMZN_10yr

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Results: 13 Stocks for 2013 Gain 60%

I started a mock portfolio on January 1, 2013, for fun, on stocktwits and twitter for the year 2013. I have owned and currently own several names but always clarified that I was not holding all 13 at any one time nor did I own every stock listed throughout the entire year. The purpose of the exercise was to develop a mock portfolio on social media which would be held for all 365 days without buy or sell rules to see if high quality growth stocks could outperform the general market without lifting a finger.

Well, SUCCESS:

As it turns out, the 13 handpicked stocks easily outperformed the major indices with a whopping 60.47% gain vs. a 31.80% gain for the S&P 500. This mock portfolio essentially doubled the average of the S&P 500 for the calendar year 2013.

2013_12-31_13-for-2013 Results

First tweet: #13for2013
10:04 PM – 1 Jan 13
13 Stocks for 2013: $SSYS $DDD $DNKN $RAX $LNKD $KORS $MOV $FLT $INVN $NTSP $SLCA $V $SCCO

Let’s take a look back as to why I selected these 13 stocks so we can use a similar strategy to select 14 stocks for 2014.

DDD – 3D Systems Corp.
The company manufactures and markets 3D printers, print materials, on-demand custom parts services, and 3D authoring solutions for professionals and consumers.

The entire 3D industry started to explode in 2012 and I felt the trend would continue strong into 2013. That thinking was correct as DDD led the portfolio with a 161.26% gain. I believe this industry is still within its infancy with room for further growth and will likely select at least one 3D stock in the 2014 portfolio. Many stocks within the group are extended so be careful with your selections and wait for pullbacks (low risk / high reward). Some analysts believe that this industry is “gimmicky” but I am not completely sold on that notion. The industry is young and the true leaders will take time to establish their position but I do believe 3D printing is here to stay (in one form or another).

2013_12-31_DDD

DNKN – Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc.
Dunkin Brands Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises quick service restaurants under the Dunkin Donuts and Baskin-Robbins brands worldwide. The company has approximately 10,800 Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants; and approximately 7,000 Baskin-Robbins restaurants.

I liked the stock and still own shares today because those 10,800 stores are mostly concentrated in the north east. The company still has room for expansion which was my thought last year as the west coast is wide open, as well as international markets. This is a $60-$100 type stock over the long term based on Dunkin’s strong brand and loyal following. Even better, the stock pays a dividend. Bullish on this stock long term.

2013_12-31_DNKN

FLT – FleetCor Technologies, Inc.
FleetCor Technologies, Inc. provides fuel cards and workforce payment products and services to businesses, commercial fleets, oil companies, petroleum marketers, and government entities in North America, Latin America, and Europe. It sells a range of customized fleet and lodging payment programs; and offers various card products to purchase fuel, lodging, and related products and services at participating locations.

It’s a generic description from Yahoo Finance but that’s what caught my attention as this is such a great concept in a huge industry. The stock has had a heck of a two year run but can be considered for additional buys anywhere above the 200-d ma in the future. I am big supporter and buyer of “payment” solutions going forward (whether it is specialized in an industry or in general such as a credit card). I maintain my bullish outlook on this stock and the industry.

2013_12-31_FLT

INVN – InvenSense, Inc.
InvenSense, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and sells micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) gyroscopes for motion tracking devices in consumer electronics. The company delivers motion interface solutions based on its multi-axis gyroscope technology that target smartphones and tablets, console and portable video gaming devices, digital still and video cameras, smart televisions, 3D mice, navigation devices, toys, and health and fitness accessories.

The key terms here are “wearables” and “sensors”. Just about everything we will use in the future will contain sensors to some degree so that is why I have been extremely bullish on INVN since 2012. It’s hasn’t worked out as smoothly as I wanted since my first purchase in 2012 but it has been profitable over the long term. The past year has been more profitable but it has also been extremely volatile. The stock made a strong late year push but needs to deliver consistent earnings to reduce the volatility. If it can do that, I can see this stock trading above $30 per share in 2014. I am still bullish on INVN going into 2014 and hold shares today (the entire industry is just beginning to explode).

2013_12-31_INVN

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