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InvenSense Inc – INVN

January 14, 2012 By Leave a Comment

InvenSense, Inc.
$INVN – NYSE

INVN is up 20% since my first tweet on January 5, 2012 which followed a 9% gain that day from $10.90. The stock is up 33.43% since January 1, 2012 and 77.20% since the IPO on November 16, 2011. It’s a young IPO moving on strong volume with a small float and a very interesting (in-demand) technology.

The ideal buy point for this young chart pattern is $11.95, $0.10 above the high of the left side of the base, see chart below. The stock is currently extended from the buy point so please be patient and wait for a new setup or a pullback on lighter than average volume.

I do not own shares as of this post but I am looking to get in based on the analysis above. The stock shot up too quickly before I was taking it serious. It now has my attention. Note that the stock closed down 1.85% on Friday and after-hours trading had it down another $1.13 or 8.50%.

INVN Tweets in 2012:

  • January 5, 2012 | $11.11: $INVN http://stks.co/1mSk Young IPO up 9% on vol 277% larger than ave. Interesting technology
  • January 9, 2012 | $12.19: $INVN crushing it lately, targeted last week. Up 10% on vol 78% larger than ave to new all time high. Great technology.
  • January 9, 2012 | $12.19: $INVN http://stks.co/1qYZ Making a move on volume
  • January 10, 2012 | $12.99: $INVN http://stks.co/1rhQ Tack on another 6.5% with volume 156% larger than ave
  • January 12, 2012 | $13.54: $INVN http://stks.co/1tyE A 22% move this week, as of noon Thursday. Small float, great technology.

Per Yahoo Finance:

InvenSense, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and sells micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) gyroscopes for motion processing solutions in consumer electronics. The company delivers next-generation motion processing based on its advanced multi-axis gyroscope technology by targeting applications in video game devices, handsets and tablet devices, digital still and video cameras, digital television and set-top box remote controls, 3D mice, portable navigation devices, and household consumer and industrial devices.

It sells its products to manufacturers of consumer electronics devices, original design manufacturers, and contract manufacturers through direct sales organization and non-stocking distributors worldwide. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Key Financials 2011:
Current Period (Quarterly) 10/2/2011 vs. Prior Period 7/2/2011
Cash (Bank Funds): $57,740,000 vs. $44,877,000
Total Assets: $102,312,000 vs. $84,150,000
Total Equity: $82,431,000 vs. $69,320,000
Sales (Income): $43,034,000 vs. $35,627,000
Gross Profit: $23,662,000 vs. $20,618,000
Net Operating Income: $14,799,000 vs. $11,731,000

Period (Yearly) 4/3/2011 vs. Prior Period 4/3/2010
Cash (Bank Funds): $38,075,000 vs. $35,269,000
Total Assets: $70,746,000 vs. $54,450,000
Total Equity: $59,141,000 vs. $35,000,000
Sales (Income): $96,547,000 vs. $79,556,000
Gross Profit: $52,900,000 VS. $43,483,000
Net Operating Income: $21,478,000 vs. $21,971,000

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Filed Under: 2012 Stock Watchlist, Stocks

Will Renren Run

June 26, 2011 By 2 Comments

Renren $RENN has been running downhill since its debut in May, from $20+ to $6.23. It’s trading at less than 1/3rd of its high on opening day. I am not surprised due to the overall market pulling back to major moving averages and support levels but the main reason is due to Chinese stocks taking a beating lately.

Several China based stocks have been scrutinized for faulty accounting and some shady government practices such as censorship. Renren takes that a step further due to a sudden resignation by a key board member before the IPO (this board member was the chief of its audit committee).

Renren is consider by many as the “Facebook” of China, with a population base at least 3-4 times grater than that of the United States. Renren is a social networking Internet platform in China that generates revenues from online advertising and Internet value-added services.

Revenues and total cash from operations have been increasing year-over-year but net income has not lived up to expectations. It does appear that the company has a boat load of cash and future earnings pan out as such:

FY 2011: -0.03
FY 2012: 0.03
FY 2013: 0.13

With all of that said, I wouldn’t touch this stock with a 10-foot pole since it doesn’t come anywhere near my technical criteria but something keeps pulling me back. I hope it’s not a gambling tingle but more of a hint of intuition knocking. I almost want to compare $RENN to $SIRI when it was trading in cents. $SIRI was crap and still wasn’t turning a profit but my intuition said to buy, at least a few thousands shares. I didn’t and now it’s up nearly 10-fold from that point. I know traders that did and have been paid off handsomely.

So Is RENN teasing me because of my SirusXM miss or is intuition correct again in telling me that this stock has been unfairly beaten down in a rough Chinese stock environment and overall market pullback?

Intuition says to grab shares and hold as a value/ rebound play. My “technical” rules say to STAY AWAY.
I think I’ll grab shares on Monday and tuck them away for a while.

Let’s see if breaking the rules comes back to haunt me. My leash will be slightly larger because my overall position size will be smaller than normal.

To give you an idea of a couple of stocks that my screens and rules are pointing me towards, check out $FIO and $BBRG. They are new IPO’s with earnings and sales growth with prices making new highs.

Let’s revisit all three in 3-6 months.

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Filed Under: Stocks, Stocks to Watch 2011

Sour Apple?

April 11, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Apple $AAPL is up more than 4,300% since March 2003, the beginning of the bull market following the stock market bubble burst (post 9-11). The stock is up slightly more than 1,200% since I started covering it online (my blogger blog which pre-dates the blog you are reading).

I have owned APPL on multiple occasions over the past 6 years but I wish I could sit here and write to you that I was a holder the entire time (my gains are just a small slice of the longer term buy and hold pie) . I wasn’t a 1,200%+ gainer but I was in and out while taking profits on a yearly basis back in the mid to late 2000’s. Below is an example of yearly posts I made about Apple or as I called it “Green Apples” due to the fact that it was a cash register stock.

So, with all that praise and the massive gains, am I really turning bearish on the stock? Is Apple starting to turn sour? Well, not so fast but some minor red flags are starting to show up. Take a look at the charts below which highlight the lower highs and lower lows.

January 13, 2005: Green “APPLE”s

“Apple (AAPL) first showed up on my weekly screens on 10/24/04 at $47.41. Since this time, Apple has made the daily and weekly screens numerous times.”

January 17, 2006: All-Star Stock – Digesting Apple

“Apple has been on my screens for 15 months and has been in my portfolio on two separate occasions over those 15 months.”

January 10, 2007: Apple Inc. is Still Green

“What can I say; the apples keep getting greener!”

November 29, 2007: An iPod touch from Apple (AAPL)

“A new high and a move above $200 per share will be very bullish and a signal that this stock may have another run regardless of what the major indices do.”

Apple is still trading above the 200-d moving average and has not violated any long term trendlines so please do not short at this time. You may cash in shares and start to trim back your position by selling but I don’t advise going short just yet.

The ideal position to sell short is after a move below the 200-d ma when the stock tries to break back above but fails – that’s my sweet spot.

Goldman Sachs set a price target of $430 but I don’t listen to these “talking heads”. Another interesting fact: “Nasdaq OMX plans to announce a rare rebalancing of its Nasdaq-100 index, which will reduce the big weighting of Apple, which currently makes up more than 20% of the index.” – WSJ

As of today, April 11, 2011, I suggest cashing in some shares. A further drop and I suggest selling more shares. I wouldn’t even consider the word “short” until the stocks closes below the 200-d ma (trend trade of course – not day trading).

Let’s see if this decade long “Green Apple” turns into a “Sour Apple”.

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Filed Under: Selling, Stocks

Future Stars: The IPO Holiday Gift List for 2011

December 13, 2010 By 2 Comments

The past year has been very kind to IPO’s, the young growth stocks that will typically lead the market for years to come. With the NASDAQ up more than 90% since the March 2009 low, many have predicted time after time that it is far too extended to move higher. I have been one of those people, one that has been consistently watching for the possible Dow Theory Reversal (1-2-3 Setup). It hasn’t happened to date and the latest attempt to stall at resistance has actually propelled the tech laden index to move to new highs. The trend in higher until the charts tell us otherwise and always remember what Livermore said:

“Just because a stock is selling at a high price does not mean it won’t go higher” – this applies to markets as well.

Whatever the market will do in 2011, I decided it was prudent to point out a number of strong growth stocks, young companies that have debuted within the past year (many within the past six months). This is NOT a buy list but it is definitely a watch-list for anyone that searches to buy young, innovative companies that are growing both earnings and sales. Several, if not many, of the stocks listed below will lead the market from time to time over the next few years, A couple of them may even become household names, similar to the GOOG, BIDU and AAPL’s of the past.

As it stands right now, Sunday (night), December 12, 2010, the major market indexes are all trending higher in the short, intermediate and long term phases. Until that changes, grab shares at ideal low risk entry points. Enjoy the possible future leaders.

Future Stars: Young Growth Stocks to Watch in 2011 and beyond:
*All charts are listed below*

  • HSFT – 27.46, only five months young, HiSoft Technology has currently pulled back to the 50-d moving average line, providing some support for a new entry or an opportunity to add shares.
  • MOTR – 23.55, after a three-fold run from it’s IPO price, Motricity is consolidating back to its 50-d moving average for an opportunity to add shares or enter for the first time
  • RP – 28.83, RealPage is forming a short term base that resembles a subtle cup with support above the 50-d moving average. A breakout to new highs will continue the up-trend.
  • QLIK – 23.40, Qlik Technologies is has been trading mostly sideways over the past three months after nearly tripling from it’s IPO launch. A move to new highs would be positive for grabbing shares.
  • MCP – 31.28, Molycorp is trying to maintain support at the 50-d m.a. after running from $14 to a high above $40 per share. The current consolidation is ideal to shake out weak holders and allow new supporters to jump on board.
  • TSLA – 31.52, Tesla Motors has been all the rage in the automotive world over the past several months, partly due to it’s stock run from $17 to more than $36 in a few short months. A bit extended here but further consolidation to the 50-d m.a. will offer new opportunities to grab shares.
  • KH – 20.48, some of my longer standing readers know I have had a long love affair with Chinese IPO stocks dating back to 2007 (BIDU, EDU, MR). China Kanghui looks like another solid young growth stock – always grab shares at or near a support level like a major moving average. Note this: other young Chinese stocks are starting to show sings of a breakdown so be careful.
  • VRA – 36.41, Vera Bradley makes my list because I know and understand this company, one of her bags was a recent gift to my wife. If VRA can be anything like Coach (COH), I’d love to jump on the ride now, nice and early. We can all dream for a ride like COH, extending back much of the past decade.

    • [Read more...]

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Filed Under: IPO, Stocks, Technical Analysis

Twitter Stock Pick Results 2009

January 2, 2010 By 10 Comments

chrisperruna twitter stock selections 2009:

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

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Filed Under: Stocks, Twitter Updates
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