Paper Trading: Nothing to Lose, Nothing to Learn

With nothing on the line, emotions fall to the wayside and you will probably miss the opportunity to learn something about yourself. Trading in the market is essentially learning about yourself and how you react to positive and negative situations. A great speculator once said that the market is an expensive place to find out who you are. However, you will never find out who you are by trading a paper account or virtual portfolio.

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Paper trading seems to be the most over emphasized technique offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market frauds. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully.

It’s simple: place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn’t, you have no worries because you can’t lose. Therefore, you are apt to forget about sell stops, position sizing, risk-to-reward ratios and you will never experience the pressures of an up and down market when your position shows a profit or loss. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don’t fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don’t prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with.

We should all know by now that emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through actual trading. Learn to ignore the talking heads on TV that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it authentic so you can try to learn something within the scope of reality; potentially money management.

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I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. Traders are undercapitalized with $10,000 but most people start trading with this amount. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn’t care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out (we weren’t day trading in this competition). I did allow margin but I saw investors abusing the fake power of leverage in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable.

Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential results.

This article was originally written by me back in 2005 under a title: Trade for Real

I updated the article to my current beliefs and renamed it after some excellent advice from Copyblogger during a recent exercise: Headline Remix Madness – Part Two

History & Experience Tell All

I am going to repeat the quote that I wrote last Monday in the post titled General Market Update; from a fund manger from Oppenheimer Capital named Eugene D. Brody:
“Sell stocks whenever the market is 30% higher over a year ago”

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Here’s another quote from Victor Sperandeo (I highly recommend his book):

“…the median extent for an intermediate swing in the DOW during a bull market is 20 percent. This doesn’t mean that when the market is up 20 percent, it’s going to top; sometimes it will top earlier, sometimes later. However, what it does mean is that when the market is up more than 20 percent, the odds for further appreciation begin to decline significantly.”

Thus, if the market has been up more than 20 percent and you begin to see other evidence of a possible top, it’s important to pay close attention to that information.”

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I tend to agree with what Vic Sperandeo says especially since I think his book is one of the best around. By reading his entire book, you will understand where he is coming from and how he concluded that 20% represents a key number where odds decrease significantly. History always repeats!

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Indicators and Research Save me Money

I often write about secondary indicators when watching the market and posted a chart to my MSW community members last week highlighting a pattern for the number of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages on the S&P 500. This chart shows how the market may be ready to roll over as it did in April of 2006. See my original blog entry on this possibility back in November 2006 named:
Secondary Indicators telling Stories

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This is what I said in November when writing about the possibility of a market reversal:

“The number of stocks trading above their 50-d moving average in the chart titled $SPXA50R is flirting around the extended area of 80 for the first time since November and December of last year. The lesson we can learn here is the fact that the market didn’t roll over until May of 2006 which means that this secondary indicator is a warning of what may come in the future. I can say this with confidence because the indicator also bottomed a full month in advance of the NASDAQ bottom in July but predicted the move perfectly. Again, this is only a secondary indicator but we are now one month removed from the first peak above the 80% level which could be the start of the warning bells and red flags that the up-trend is winding down. The last topping warning took almost five months to materialize so keep that in mind.”

The last breakdown took slightly longer than four months to materialize according to this secondary indictor. Well, the current pattern is now in the fourth month. Is this coincidence? I don’t know but many secondary indicators have been lining up, calling for a possible reversal.

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After writing my general market update thread on Monday which stemmed from my in-depth analysis for MSW members over the weekend, I decided to write this on the MSW Daily Screen Monday night after performing my research (2/26/07):

“I am only listing ticker symbols with brief analysis tonight because the market is looking weak. I ran multiple fundamental scans that turned up about 170 stocks but after doing technical analysis, I could barely come up with ten ideal stocks. Take this as another signal that the market may be near a top. I will stress once again that the trend is still higher but some minor flags are starting to creep into my research. This will be an interesting week to watch as I look to close another existing position now that it has hit its target and scan for new opportunities. I will not hesitate to short stocks in the portfolio if a trend reversal becomes obvious.”

Talk about multiple clues from my basic system of research. Now I just hope that most of my members took advantage of the information I have been writing over the past several trading days. We can’t do anything about yesterday as I was also caught on the long side of a couple positions but I did sell out of a position Friday and on Monday in real time in the MSW Portfolio. I send a real-time text message to all MSW members when I buy and sell into the portfolio. I saved the portfolio $4,000 in profits from my sales on Friday and Monday (GRMN and SLW). I still managed to give back several thousand dollars yesterday but the damage was much less because I was already getting sell signals going back to last week.

I finished my daily screen on Monday night with these words:

“I have been closing positions as they meet targets because the market is extended when viewing historical terms. I want my profits now before the market can get a chance to drop heavily one of these days. Don’t let this talk scare you because the overall trend is still higher and I will not hesitate to buy high quality stocks such as a PTR after the strength today.”

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I am patting myself on the back because experience and nothing else made me sell and I am extremely happy. I am finally listening to my research, system and rules and not my gut and it is paying off!

Our First Red Flag

Wow,
I didn’t know the first signal (red flag) would come only one day after making this general market update.

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“…we must be on the lookout for a signal or a combination of signals and red flags that could lead to a correction or downtrend. I am long the market but I am always aware of market cycles and I will be watching for signals so I am not telling anyone to sell at this time but I am warning all investors to be smart and listen to history.”

Look at the two charts provided, both of Chinese companies. MR is a great example of why I don’t set hard sell stops into opening bells.

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PTR is also an example of how I can take advantage of a possible market overreaction for a stock I still like long term. The risk to reward is great so I am grabbing shares. If it doesn’t work out – I will sell for a small loss.

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Red flag number 1 has arrived!

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General Market Update

I used a quote for my weekly MSW analysis from a fund manger from Oppenheimer Capital named Eugene D. Brody: “Sell stocks whenever the market is 30% higher over a year ago”.

The NASDAQ is currently 25% higher than it was in July 2006 and is trading in new high territory (the highest level in six years). Historically, markets retreat after making a 30% gain from one year to another and we must be on the lookout for a signal or a combination of signals and red flags that could lead to a correction or downtrend. I am long the market but I am always aware of market cycles and I will be watching for signals so I am not telling anyone to sell at this time but I am warning all investors to be smart and listen to history.

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Like the NASDAQ, both the DOW and S&P 500 have made considerable gains from their lows in 2006. They are both up about 20% and have been riding their 50-day moving averages for the past seven months. The first possible red flag of a trend breakdown would be a major violation of the 50-d moving average among one or all three major indexes. The second major red flag could be the breakdown of the relative strength rating for the DOW or NASDAQ versus the S&P 500. I have highlighted the RS line on the DOW chart with the bottom representing a possible trend reversal and the top of the shaded area representing another leg of the up-trend (a fresh breakout to new all-time highs).

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When reading the 2007 Stock Trader’s Almanac, I see that March represents the fifth best month of market gains over the past 100 years but has been volatile in the latest decade with large gains and losses. March has had a gain for the past eleven straight pre-election years and that is exactly what we are in right now. Take this with a gain of salt because price and volume is still the most important. The markets also haven’t experienced a down year during a pre-election year over the past 68 years. There hasn’t been a down year in the third year of a presidential term since 1939 (World War Two era). The only severe loss during a pre-election year was in 1931 (the depression) when looking at data than spans to the early 1900’s. During Bush’s last term, the market was 25%, 26% and 50% for the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ respectively. This did happen during the fall of Saddam with the beginning of the Iraq war.

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We haven’t had a stretch of strength for the NH-NL ratio as we have witnessed over the past four weeks since 2004 (almost three full years). We have not had three consecutive weeks of new highs averaging 500 or more new highs since 2004 and we didn’t have three out of four weeks with these types of numbers in 2005 or 2006. We had our second best week since December of last year with new highs averaging 556 per day and new lows only reaching an average of 42. I must point out that this was a short week due to the President’s day holiday but the strength must be noted. It was the third time this month that the weekly highs averaged more than 500 per day. February of 2007 has been the strongest month for the NH-NL ratio since early 2004. Is this a sign of things to come or is this a topping signal? I read it as a trend and the trend is higher and until that is violated, we stay long!

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Weekly New High – New Low Ratio (NH-NL) for 2007:
Saturday, January 6, 2007: 279-67
Saturday, January 13, 2007: 344-39
Saturday, January 13, 2007: 281-46
Saturday, January 27, 2007: 316-55
Saturday, February 3, 2007: 502-45
Saturday, February 10, 2007: 558-53
Saturday, February 17, 2007: 428-48
Saturday, February 24, 2007: 556-42 – This past week (a short week)