Young Guns Taking Off

I posted a thread titled, Fresh IPO Ideas, last Wednesday (one week ago today) and have already witnessed some excellent results.

The blog entry included five trending IPO’s that look poised to make a further upwards advance over the next several months.

They included the five names below at these initial prices:
JASO – JA Solar Holdings, Co. Ltd. – $24.55
SMOD – SMART Modular Technologies Inc. – $14.31
SNCR – Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. – $27.88
GTLS – Chart Industries Inc. – $23.05
DVR – Cal Dive Intl., Inc. – $15.52

They closed Tuesday night at these levels:
JASO – $29.28, a 19.2% Gain
SMOD – $15.07, a 5.3% gain
SNCR – $28.78, a 3.2% gain
GTLS – $24.73, a 7.2% gain
DVR – $17.54, a 13.0% gain

I didn’t perform a full case study for any of the stocks but I will provide some additional information for JA Solar Holdings, Co. Ltd. I will start with last week’s data about the company’s institutional analysis. Notice the number of shares bought versus the number of shares sold (the stock is young so this is normal but I like the early support). I can’t argue with $300 million pouring into the stock.

062007_jaso_daily.png

JASO – JA Solar Holdings, Co. Ltd. – $29.28
Earnings Analysis:
$0.41 – Last Year Primary EPS
$1.00 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.41 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
30.00% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Next Earnings: 8/14/07

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 8%
Money Market: 68
Mutual Fund: 18
Other: 1
Shares Held: 15.16 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 1.85 mil
Shares Bought: 13.51 mil
Shares Sold: 0.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $314.6 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $4.58 mil

Potential Trade Set-up:
The Ideal setup was last Wednesday at the moving average when I started coverage!
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Fresh IPO Ideas

As promised yesterday, I have decided to highlight five young stocks that debuted with an IPO within the last year or so. None of the stocks below are direct recommendations to buy or sell but they are presented with an idea that opportunities may currently exist or become apparent. I have included some basic earnings information along with institutional analysis. Please do your own due diligence prior to committing to any of these securities. The stocks are not listed in order of importance or by potential opportunity; it’s a random list.

All earnings information is Copyright 2007 Zacks Investment Research.
All Institutional Information is Copyright 2007 Vickers Stock Research Corporation (Vickers Security Report)

JASO – JA Solar Holdings, Co. Ltd. – $24.55
Earnings Analysis:
$0.41 – Last Year Primary EPS
$1.00 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.41 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
30.00% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 87
Money Market: 68
Mutual Fund: 18
Other: 1
Shares Held: 15.16 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 1.85 mil
Shares Bought: 13.51 mil
Shares Sold: 0.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $314.6 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $4.58 mil

061307_jaso_daily.png

SMOD – SMART Modular Technologies Inc. – $14.31
Earnings Analysis:
$0.68 – Last Year Primary EPS
$0.50 – Previous Year EPS
$0.91 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.06 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
17.50% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 149
Money Market: 82
Mutual Fund: 62
Other: 5
Shares Held: 42.33 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 25.68 mil
Shares Bought: 18.82 mil
Shares Sold: 2.17 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $269.36 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $31.08 mil

061307_smod_wkly.png

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IPO, Stock of the Day Updates

A few stocks featured on this blog, as recently as last week, are moving higher so I would like to draw attention in their direction. All three stocks were found on my IPO fundamental screen which is explained in detail in this post: Fundamental Screens and Scans.

The first stock is CBEY, one that was highlighted as a Top 10 Stocks to Watch: Trend Buys in March of this year while it was trading below $30 per share. The stock has since made a move to $38 and currently holds a 32 % gain over the past three months. This was a piece of the analysis I gave when it debuted on the blog:

“CBEY – 29.03, the stock has been consolidating over the past four months without violating the 200-d m.a. so that is positive but recent volume has been increasing on distribution days. It is a buy if it holds support above the 200-d m.a.”

061207_cbey_wkly.png

LOOP came to us in April of 2007 after I returned from Hawaii. The stock was blasting out of a quadruple top breakout on the point and figure chart just shy of $19 per share. It closed one penny shy of $22 yesterday for a respectable 16% gain in less then two months. The stock has moved higher in seven of the past eight weeks with a clear up-trend above the trading range I highlighted in my original post: Quadruple top Breakout (LOOP)

Here is a taste of the analysis I gave during that original post:

LOOP – $18.93 “LoopNet was screened on MSW back in late 2006 as an IPO to watch in the future and may be starting the run that I anticipated it could take late last year. As we look for red flags on the downside, this green flag on the up-side is one to be noted.

The next major milestone will be a new all-time high above $19.92 (closed at $18.93 today).”

061207_loop_wkly.png

FCSX debuted on the blog last Monday after a nice boost by Cramer’s analysis the prior Thursday and Friday. The stock retreated to $45, an area just above my ideal entry of $42.50 and just above the current 50-day moving average. Yesterday’s 8.23% gain came on strong volume giving us another indication that institutional buyers are stepping in. It may be time to jump on this train before it takes off.
The original blog post and analysis can befound here: FCStone Group Inc. (FCSX)

“Potential Trade Set-up:
Risk a maximum of 1% of portfolio
Set a stop loss near $39.10 or higher (7-10%) with entry near $42.50 gap-up
Target of $63+ based on previous high to low action (pure speculative target)
Risk to reward has a potential of 6-to-1 based on exact entry, target and stop listed above.”

061207_fcsx_wkly.png

My IPO screener has been very successful this year but I must say that it can and does present me with 30 to 60 stocks every night so I use technical analysis to select the ones I believe will provide the most opportunity. I plan to upload another blog post later today that will feature three new IPOs that are grabbing my attention, both fundamentally and technically.

FCStone Group Inc. (FCSX)

Stock of the Day
FCStone Group Inc.
Friday’s Closing Price: FCSX – $47.96

Sector: Financials
Industry: Investment Brokerage
52-week Price: $27.25 – $48.70
Next Earnings: 7/14/07

060407_fcsx_daily.png

FCStone Group is another financial stock making its way to the “stock of the day” case studies here on the blog. Our most recent financial stock covered, GROW, decided to pop on Friday on heavy volume which was good news to everyone that established a position.

Today’s stock made my IPO screens over the weekend and saw a strong pop on Friday after Cramer noted it as one of his three stocks that may be part of the Russell rebalancing later this month. I was actually watching the show live when he named the three stocks and took a quick look at their charts but didn’t go further with my research at that time. The strong $5.67 price move along with the 358% increase in volume on Friday easily allowed it to make my weekend screens. Both the EPS ratings and the RS ratings (my main criteria for the screen) look extremely healthy so I decided to dig deeper.

The financials are below so I will start with a brief analysis of the daily and weekly charts. The weekly charts shows the stock blasting out of the IPO with a strong up-trend that lasted six weeks on strong volume. The stock consolidated over the next five weeks but volume was lower, a very positive sign. Institutional investors were holding their shares while the little guy was buying and selling.

You can see the sharp price increase above the 50-d moving average on strong volume Friday, the morning after Cramer’s buzz. Aside from the Cramer buzz and the possibility that FCSX may land on the Russell 2000, the stock is definitely one to watch from both a fundamental and technical standpoint. Due to a lack of trading history, we don’t have an ideal entry for a trade setup. Therefore, we must look to accumulate shares at or near the 50-d moving average or a new all-time high on strong volume. Look to add shares if the stock is closing the gap from Friday near $42.50 (see my potential trade set-up below).

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