Late Buy Opportunities

The four stocks highlighted today are all trading slightly above their 200-day moving average after making some type of a correction over the past couple of months. I call them late opportunities because they were correcting when the majority of the market leaders were making new highs. This type of action could allow us to label them as laggards but their overall weekly charts would suggest otherwise.

They have all managed to trade above their long term 200-d moving average while showing us a history of success. It may be my belief and your belief that the market is near a top but do we really know when the market will officially top and start to trend lower.

I don’t think so!

So, take the trades since they have ideal risk-to-reward setups. What is the worst that can happen? You sell for a small loss. Big deal because this has been one profitable year so take the trade! These stocks aren’t the market leaders but you may be able to squeeze some profits out of the current moving average setups. We’ll call them lazy summer buys.

AllianceBernstein (AB) was one of the more consistent performing stocks on the MSW Index prior to me shutting down the index in March. The stock was screened heavily last summer and I started coverage on the 29th of July, 2006 at $66.90. The stock gained as much as 40% while on the index but has recently traded slightly downward as it makes a correction towards the 200-d m.a. It tested the line last summer and that is when I saw an ideal buying opportunity so I am now looking for a similar situation. It held the long term moving average as support last week so I would not have a problem taking a position.

(AB) Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $84 to $86 (currently $90.14)
Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 9% or $82.03
Number of Shares: 123
Position Size is $11,112
Risk is $8.11
Target is $108
Risk-to-Reward is 2-to-1

***The ideal entry would be near $84 for a risk to reward of 7-to-1. The stop loss would be 3% or $81.48 with a stop of $2.52.

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Rochester Medical (ROCM) has had one heck of a year as it blasted higher from $7.50 to as high as $29 in six months of time. Since the peak, the stock has corrected by 50% over the past two months and is now trading with a suspicious quietness above the 200-d moving average. Is there some type of news that will be released that will propel this stock higher? I don’t know but the trade setup is ideal so take it. Something may be going on behind the scenes so take the nice risk-to-reward setup.

(ROCM) Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $15 (currently $15.14)
Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 5% or $14.25
Number of Shares: 1,333
Position Size is $20,000
Risk is $0.75
Target is $21
Risk-to-Reward is 8-to-1

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Click through to see the ideal trade setups for CHINA and GMKT:
[Read more…]

Recent IPO Updates

The stocks below show you why jumping on a young growth stock during an up-trend will give you great odds of success regardless of your system or beliefs. As long as you position size correctly and locate your stops, things will work out. Four of the five stocks have made double digit gains over the past three weeks while one (SMOD) has dropped 5% but may be setting up the ideal risk-to-reward opportunity near the moving average.

JASO (up over 50%) was also among the young stocks covered in early June in this post: Fresh IPO Ideas

SNCR – Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. – $34.25 (up 25%)
Earnings Analysis:
$0.35 – Last Year Primary EPS
$0.56 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$0.72 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
28.75% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 156
Money Market: 70
Mutual Fund: 82
Other: 4
Shares Held: 16.86 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 13.48 mil
Shares Bought: 8.94 mil
Shares Sold: 5.56 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $220.27 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $136.99 mil

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GTLS – Chart Industries Inc. – $30.07 (up 30%)
Earnings Analysis:
$1.04 – Last Year Primary EPS
$1.60 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$2.09 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 121
Money Market: 59
Mutual Fund: 59
Other: 3
Shares Held: 15.73 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 15.54 mil
Shares Bought: 2.72 mil
Shares Sold: 2.53 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $59.52 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $55.31 mil

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DVR – Cal Dive Intl., Inc. – $17.80 (up 15%)
Earnings Analysis:
$1.91 – Last Year Primary EPS
$0.61 – Previous Year EPS
$1.53 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.70 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
20.00% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 110
Money Market: 59
Mutual Fund: 46
Other: 5
Shares Held: 25.59 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 16.88 mil
Shares Bought: 12.89 mil
Shares Sold: 4.17 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $195.31 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $63.25 mil

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SMOD – SMART Modular Technologies Inc. – $13.62 (Down 5%)
Earnings Analysis:
$0.68 – Last Year Primary EPS
$0.50 – Previous Year EPS
$0.91 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.06 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
17.50% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 149
Money Market: 82
Mutual Fund: 62
Other: 5
Shares Held: 42.33 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 25.68 mil
Shares Bought: 18.82 mil
Shares Sold: 2.17 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $269.36 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $31.08 mil

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BIDU and Chinese Friends

Baidu.com (BIDU) has been a phenomenal holding and one of the strongest leaders among the Chinese stocks. I have watched, researched and jumped on this trend and will remain there until it ends.

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New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU) has been one of the more consistent Chinese stocks with a great business model and a product in demand.

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JA Solar Holdings, Co. (JASO) is fairly new to the blog and my research but has become an instant superstar with fabulous gains over the past three weeks. The stock is now up 51% and I have increased my trailing stop to guarantee a 40% gain (up from a 30% locked-in gain last week).

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Mindray Medical International (MR) hasn’t been as successful as EDU but it is showing a 29% gain over the past five months. If I had to cut one Chinese stock from my portfolio, it would be this one as it is the slacker compared to the holdings above.

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Be careful with these stocks but don’t ignore a hot trending market. Many thought the Chinese boom was killed months ago but don’t listen to these talking heads. Jump on the trend, ride it, lock in gains or cut losses if you are wrong. You can’t make money if you don’t play the game.

Don’t let your so-called “rational” mindset prevent you from buying a trending stock because it looks too high or seems to be near the end of a trend. Trade your system signals, not your emotions and turn off that TV set and stop reading crappy opinionated stock market blogs. Stick with reading the best blogs that present unbiased data (as unbiased as they can be); the ones that don’t pollute their pages with opinions and garbage beliefs. My blogroll contains some of the best blogs out there for new ideas and research.

You and I don’t know when that trend will end so play the risk-to-reward ratios and you will be fine. If another Chinese JASO comes along next week, I will buy, regardless of the length of the recent boom. Until the leaders fall, I am playing.

Finally, make sure you have hard physical stops (trailing stops) to capture these gains in case a quick pullback or correction does take place.

Google Blackstone Group (BX)

Blackstone was all the hype last week as the IPO priced at $31, shot up above $37 and then quickly tumbled to close below $30 the past couple of days.

What does this mean?

Well, the stock is new and many amateur investors probably got slammed the first couple of days with 20% paper losses but that shouldn’t scare longer term investors.

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Take a page out of the lesson book of Google (GOOG) and study how that stock also dropped quickly in the days after the IPO debut. The stock reached a height of $113.48 before dropping back below $98 eight trading days later.

Volume dried up as the stock retreated prior to the first major up-trend which blasted the stock above $140 within a month. History can tell the rest of the story as the stock now trades above $525 per share but that is not the point.

I am not saying that BX will be the next GOOG but it can give you some comfort that GOOG did drop and pause prior to making a run.

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Volume has been drying during the recent drop in BX so only time will tell if the stock can start its first true up-trend.

FYI: Keep an eye on the new legislation proposed by congress as it may affect the stock (BX) in the coming weeks and months.

I don’t have a true trend-trading rating on Blackstone but I would lean towards “Buy” over the longer term!

JASO Price Target is Hit

The 3.7-to-1 risk to reward ratio that was highlighted in Young Guns Taking Off was met yesterday as the stock is now 40% higher than my original entry point (only 11 trading days back). Now is the time to guarantee at least a 30% gain by placing a hard physical stop at $31.89 or near $32. The stock still has long term potential based on its recent price explosion and institutional sponsorship but a hard stop is my idea of comfort while sleeping. Our target was met and my goal was reached so I can’t be greedy! Remember this post: Don’t Be Greedy

Below is an insert from the June 20th Case Study:
Potential Trade Set-up:
The Ideal setup was last Wednesday at the moving average when I started coverage!

Ideal Entry area: $23 – $25 ($24.55)
Risk a maximum of 1% of portfolio (half of 1% would be better for this speculative play)
Set a stop loss above $22.00 (7-10% from entry – must be below 50-d moving average)
Target of $34+ based on recent swing action (stock is young for ideal target)
Risk to reward has a potential of 3.7-to-1 based on exact entry ($24.55) and stop of $22.

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This was the original blog post that highlighted JASO at $24.55:
Fresh IPO Ideas

JASO – JA Solar Holdings, Co. Ltd. – $24.55
Earnings Analysis:
$0.41 – Last Year Primary EPS
$1.00 – Current Year Mean Primary Estimate
$1.41 – Mean Primary Estimate — Next Year
30.00% 5-YEAR GROWTH MEAN EPS

Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 87
Money Market: 68
Mutual Fund: 18
Other: 1
Shares Held: 15.16 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 1.85 mil
Shares Bought: 13.51 mil
Shares Sold: 0.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $314.6 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $4.58 mil

Shares bought versus shares sold is what really caught my attention! That is institutional sponsorship at its best. The risk-to-reward was excellent and quickly achieved by the powerful smart-money support.