This will be quick but I swear that I have not looked at a stock quote in five days. I opened my account (now in Maui – flew in from Oahu last night) and saw that my Calpine shares are now up slightly more than 150%. Yes, 150%! I couldn’t believe that it moved from $2.20 to $3.20 since I left for Hawaii on Tuesday. Closed at $3.26 on Friday.

I knew someone was accumulating shares. If I take profits now, half my trip is paid but I am going to stay on for the ride. We’ll see if it continues.

I called for the stock to move from $1 ($0.97 in December) to $4-$6 based on a discussion with my hedge fund buddy (he gets most of the credit here). I would have never looked at Calpine if it weren’t for him. But I will take credit for buying after studying the price and volume action and determining that the story was telling us to jump in for an upward trend.

My former Calpine Blog Entries:

• My First Calpine Post at $0.97 on December 6, 2006
• Calpine Comeback on March 15, 2007
• Calpine Gets Bids on March 28, 2007

My Hawaii Stock
Continental Airlines Inc.
Monday’s Intra-day Price: CAL – $40.23

I wanted to research a Hawaii based company prior to leaving for my trip tomorrow but all I found was junk (in my opinion of course). So, instead of wasting my time, I decided to research my airline but must note that I don’t invest in this industry group due to multiple reasons that may be obvious to some. No need for a disclosure because I don’t own shares or plan to own shares in Continental Airlines or any of their competitors.

It’s the best I can do with the limited selection of Hawaiian companies that trade publicly. Here are a few I found but none of them were interesting to me:
ALEX, BRN, HA, HE, MLP, BOH

Next Earnings Date: 4/19/07
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Airlines

Analyst Stat: S&P has a 12-month target of $65 with a strong buy rating (5 stars)

Institutional Analysis:
Held by Institutions: 95%
Money Market: 286
Mutual Fund: 416
Other: 13

Top Holder: Capital Research and Management Company
4.65 mil Shares for < 0.01% of Portfolio Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $574.0 billion Other Major Institutional Holders: AXA, 4.40 mil shares Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd, 4.34 mil shares Seminole Management Company, Inc., 4.3 mil shares Atalanta/Aosnoff Capital LLC, 3.2 mil shares JP Morgan Chase & Company, 3.01 mil shares BlackRock Group Limited, 2.5 mil shares [Read more…]

Stock of the Day
Mastercard
Monday’s Intra-day Price: MA – $107.28

This global payment solutions company provides services in support of the credit, debit and related payment programs of nearly 25,000 financial institutions. You should be familiar with their excellent “Priceless” commercials.

The stock enjoyed a great run starting in July 2006 after its IPO earlier last summer. It offered multiple entries during the first ten weeks of trading before making a 149% gain from a low of $43.48 to a peak of $108.51 in four months. The stock then started its current consolidation phase between $90.42 and $118.07 which has lasted for the past 18 weeks.

The stock has corrected along the 50-day moving average multiple times over the past three to four months and seems to be holding steady with institutional support. As the numbers show below, institutional buying increased during the most recent reporting periods so that can lead us to believe that this stock has major support and legs to make another run. Remember, Google didn’t stop its run after it doubled from $50 to $100. That stock actually went on to double multiple times and gave investors multiple opportunities to join the party.

Buy stocks moving higher; ones making new highs and don’t be afraid to grab shares above the triple digit threshold! GOOG, CME, SHLD, NVR can all serve as excellent examples of higher priced stocks making better gains than the garbage below $10 per share.

[Read more…]

I hate to bottom-fish as the market’s garbage lies along the floor of the exchanges. However, I have been highlighting Calpine over the past several months (12/6/06) as it has moved from $0.97 to $2.12. I have clearly indicated the institutional accumulation on the daily and weekly charts and even backed them up with official institutional reports in a post titled Calpine Comeback? (3/15/07)

Yes, the stock is speculative but I just can’t ignore the accumulation on up-days. The stock has been falling on ligher volume and gaining large chucks on huge volume.

Market makers? Pumpers? Schemers?

Something tells me no in this case and I went out and bought shares in a sub $10 stock to follow my beliefs. As I disclosed in my last blog post, I grabbed shares at $1.31 although the position is much smaller than my typical size due to the speculative nature of the trade. However, if the stock makes a comeback, I will be rewarded handsomely on my shares with very low risk. The position is now up 59% at the end of the day today after a 17% gain on volume double the daily average.

The article below makes me feel good but I will continue to trade the charts in this stock, not the news and see where it takes me. So far, so GOOD! (I still prefer buying a $130 stock such as NMX but CPNLQ is making new 52-week highs).

Calpine gets bids from firms, companies-sources
By Caroline Humer and Michael Flaherty

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – Bankrupt Calpine Corp. (CPNLQ.PK) has received offers from financial and corporate buyers, including at least one bid for the entire company, according to sources familiar with the situation, in the latest sign of a revival in demand for power generating companies.

[Read more…]