Top 10 Stocks to Watch: Trend Buys

The stocks listed today are some of the top candidates on my buy list for trend opportunities over the next several months. Each of these stocks has been screened numerous times on the MSW Index in 2007 and will be featured on the NEW MarketStockWatch.com that will be released in late April.

I am changing the MSW format to a service that generates revenues strictly from advertising rather than subscriptions. I am excited to release my research such as daily screens, weekly screens, the MSW Index and the MSW Portfolio to everyone for free. I will have the new site up and running when I return from my trip to Hawaii in April. I am looking forward to the trip to clear my head from the recent events in my life and to start a new venture for my equity research company.

I would like to thank the 700+ members that signed up for at least a trial subscription to MSW over the past two years; it was a great ride and I enjoyed every minute of it! Don’t worry, the new version of MSW will be even better as I will move to a blog format so I can incorporate images easier and post on a more frequent basis with total control of the site.

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Now, here are the top 10 stocks I am watching for my own Portfolio (in no special order):

  • EDU – 43.69, the stock has been acting excellent over the past several weeks during the market drop as it actually offered a key entry above $34 to start the month. The MSW Index stop loss area was $30 so EDU is very much a candidate. The ideal entry is near the 50-d m.a.
  • CBEY – 29.03, the stock has been consolidating over the past four months without violating the 200-d m.a. so that is positive but recent volume has been increasing on distribution days. It is a buy if it holds support above the 200-d m.a.
  • FTI – 69.26, the stock came to the MSW Index as a possible $60-$100 candidate and has held up very well in March with an 8% gain and a 17% gain in 2007. Ideal trend buys above the moving averages or the $64 support area.
  • ICON – 21.22, the stock hasn’t moved much over the past couple of months but the consolidation is welcomed after the large two year run from $4 to $23 (475% gain). My ideal area to grab shares is along the 200-d m.a. and I will wait for this potential opportunity (I will not chase).
  • NMX – 136.31, I purchased the stock in January at $119 but I sold after the large declines in exchange stocks for a small profit earlier this month. That’s too bad because it is now back above $136 and showing solid action on the weekly chart. I am looking to reestablishes shares with $130 as the current pullback target.
  • KNOT – 23.54, a very interesting stock that is currently catching support along the 200-d m.a. for the third time in two years. The huge distribution from February concerns me so I will need to see some up-ticks accompanied by strong volume before I enter.
  • COGO – 17.80, the stock recently offered an entry along the 200-d m.a. but I couldn’t take advantage of the trade setup due to personal circumstances (my father’s death). I am not one to trade during extreme emotional events. Anyway, I am looking for a new setup to form before grabbing shares as I won’t chase a poor risk-to-reward setup. The triple top breakout was above $17 on the point and figure chart
  • ZUMZ – 41.83, the stock is now acting well after being placed onto the MSW Index at $35.81 with an original buy at $32 and a target of $40 (this was accomplished). The stock started to make my screens just when WallStrip was making a video on the company. Weekly accumulation versus distribution looks solid. We now need a new setup to form in order to grab shares or add to an existing position.
  • LVS – 91.25, the stock was a superstar in my own personal portfolio last year and has since been sold but I am now interested in a new position as it looks to be holding support above the long term 200-d moving average. I would like to see stronger volume during up-weeks before taking this venture once again.
  • HWCC – 25.34, a new candidate to the MSW Index in March as the stock shows excellent “young growth stock” characteristics and a chart pattern that is trending higher with an ideal entry above the 50-d m.a. or near support at $23.

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To see all of these charts and much more (90 charts in all), visit my personal chart’s page over at StockCharts.com. I do need to update my annotations but give me some time because I am just getting back into the research this week.

Enjoy the Weekend!

Digesting Huge Profits with Jones

Stock of the Day – Update
Jones Soda Co.
Wednesday’s Intra-day Price: JSDA – $19.87

The stock is now up 154% since the original blog analysis!

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This is a quick update of a stock that has been covered numerous times over the past 6-7 months on the blog.

Here are the three latest entries:
January 19, 2007
Jones Soda Company JSDA

The fundamental numbers of JSDA are not in the same league as HANS but the chart does catch my attention. If HANS makes another run, JSDA and FIZ may tag along for the ride. If a risk/reward ratio of 3:1 or better develops, I will grab shares and!

52% gain since this post two months ago.

December 18, 2006
Stock Predictions for 2007 – Oh NO!

“JSDA – 10.03, as mentioned last week, Jones is a low priced sister stock of Hansen Natural (HANS) which has potential of a nice move and possible up-trend in 2007. The Ideal entry area is along the 200-d m.a. with shorter term entry points along the 50-d m.a. and above $10.50 on the point and figure chart”

98% gain since this post three months ago.

August 18, 2006
Ten Stocks under $10

“JSDA – 7.80, risky as it tests its 200-d m.a. The sister stock of HANS may have downward pressure if Hansen Natural continues to stumble below its 200-d m.a. Stocks move in packs so be wary if HANS breaks down further”

154% Gain since this post seven months ago

Calpine Comeback?

I wrote a blog post about Calpine back on December 6, 2006 titled Super Speculation – Yes – Tips are for Suckers. The stock was trading at $0.97 and I highlighted multiple areas of accumulation on the daily chart. As I said then, I am not a bottom fisher for crappy stocks but I couldn’t get away from the obvious accumulation. I haven’t watched the market over the past week but to my surprise, CPNLQ is up over 50% in my portfolio as I did grab shares a lot higher than $0.97 ($1.31 to be exact). My position is very small as it was complete speculation but the stock still interests me as we head towards June and the big decision.

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I am not sure what will happen or if the stock can reach the $4 to $6 area that some hedge fund traders suggest or believe but I will tag along for the ride with these institutional investors.

*Warning: this stock is extremely speculative and this post is not a recommendation to buy or sell! Trade at your own discretion, especially in a stock like this!

Institutional Holdings and Activity:
Money Market: 25
Mutual Funds: 10
Other: 1

Shares Bought last Period: 18,524,253
Shares Sold last Period: 520,641

Shares held Previous Period: 4,958,647

Value of Shares Bought last Period: $29,083,077
Value of Shares Sold last Period: $817,407

Current Value of Shares held last Period: $36,050,747

As you can see, someone is accumulating some major shares in Calpine.

Here are the top five holders:
Steelhead Partners LLC.
Eaton Vance Floating Rate Portfolio
Calpers (California Public Employees)
Emanuel E. Geduld
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Mr. Mindray on the Move

Mindray Medical (MR) is up almost 6% today on volume about 300% larger than the average as it trades near new all-time highs.

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The stock was highlighted a couple weeks back in a post titled China’s Mindray Medical Intl. (MR).

This is what I was thinking when I wrote the analysis:

What catches my eye the most about this stock is the number of shares bought and sold during the most recent reporting period! The buy to sell ratio is 39-to-1 which represents institutional accumulation in my opinion and I get warm and fuzzy when these professional buyers support a stock I own (disclosure: I do own shares prior to writing this post). The amount of fundamental data is limited on the young Chinese company but I have listed what I can find using a variety of sources (Yahoo giving me the most data).

Looking at the chart, we can see that the stock is gaining support along the 50-day moving average and is within 15% of a new all-time high (set back in December 2006 at $27.20). The weekly chart shows a flat base that has been forming over the past seven weeks with potential for an up-side breakout. A 200-d m.a. has not formed at this point in time but will be valuable in the future. Overall, I like this young stock and I like the market it comes from.

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Yes I do own shares and this is why:

Institutional Numbers:
Money Market: 21
Mutual Fund: 75
Other: 4

Shares Bought Last Period: 6.4 million
Shares Sold Last Period: 0.2 million
Value of Shares Bought: $156.4 million
Value of Shares Sold: $4.9 million

JADE Updated

Said this on Friday about JADE in a post titled Bullion or Beef?:

As for JADE, it’s a lower priced stock that I typically steer clear of but I can’t ignore the huge surge in price and volume over the past several weeks. The stock had doubled in price on volume 3-6 sixes greater than the average. It looks extended to the average investor and I am not jumping on at this point because the fundamentals don’t support the position but I am interested if the stock consolidates and offers an entry area. A stock with this much interest is going somewhere based off of some type of news or hype. I don’t know what it is at this time but that is not important.

A solid 19% gain this week on huge volume (2 days of trading). Again, I don’t own the stock for reasons explained but someone is accumulating on heavy volume and that interests me.

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I don’t view the stock as a longer term investment at this time but I do see trade opportunities.