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Solving the Financial Crisis

November 30, 2008 by Chris 6 Comments

“Problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.”
~Albert Einstein

So, why are the same goons that created our mess trying to solve it?
The politics in our country is a joke!

By the way, we are not in a depression (the talking heads just won’t shut up). The restaurants and movie theatres are packed, the malls and box stores are packed, the parking lots are filled with SUV’s, etc…

Recession, yes, but we are NO WHERE NEAR a depression. Just some thoughts as I celebrate my grandmother’s 85th birthday; she lived through a “real” depression.

Yes, my post title is slightly misleading…

Filed Under: Misc., Wall Street

Sites I read Everyday

November 28, 2008 by Chris 3 Comments

Below are the websites I visit everyday and I do mean everyday!

I visit many more websites and blogs throughout the week, with specific focus on my blogroll, but the ones above are must reads in my busy daily schedule.

Enjoy the rest of the Thanksgiving Weekend!

Filed Under: Blogs, Links

Oil a Value Buy?

November 26, 2008 by Chris 9 Comments

What should we buy?
Where should we place our money?
What are you doing with your investments?

It’s a question I get every week and one that is extremely difficult to answer but I will tell you what I am looking at:

Oil, pure crude oil

I understand that crude oil is down about 57% during the past six months and more than 43% over a one year period but I also know that the commodity is in demand. It’s in demand in the USA, Europe, Asia and everywhere else in the modern world. Countries such as the USA, China and India are not going to consume less oil as we move forward, regardless of the green energy movement (which I fully support). Traders will also return to the pit (computers) to speculate, so I see this as a very speculative vehicle (just as it has been over the past several years).

All the charts tell me the commodity is in a massive stage 4 down-trending base with the long term 200-day moving average facing down. However, oil will have several rallies that will bring it back towards the moving average based on simple supply and demand. I don’t see how a finite amount of oil will trade for less dollars per barrel in five or ten years than it does now based on an ever increasing world population and industrialized planet.

Therefore, I see oil as my “speculative value buy” for the next several years. My mutual fund if you will. Of course I will look for ideal technical setups that use favorable risk/ reward entries but I still view the play from a value perspective.

So, what will I be buying?

ETF’s are a great start; easy and simple to grab in your stock account with no futures necessary.

For long trends or bullish trends, I will buy:
(OIL) Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Total Return ETN
(OLO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN
(DXO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN

For short trends or bearish trends, I will buy:
(DOY) MacroShares Oil Down ETF (DOY)
(SZO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN
(DTO) PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN