New Highs, New Lows and Industry Strength

The New High-New Low Ratio (NH-NL) crossed into neutral territory for the first time since early October 2006. It then briefly stopped in negative territory for the weeks ending March 10 and March 17, the first time this happened since August 2006. The ratio has been volatile with direct relation to the large up and down swings of the market so don’t read too much into that action. I am watching to see if the ratio can hold steady and maintain some strength near the 60% level without dropping back to negative territory. The streak of higher highs and higher lows is now over and the consolidation phase from October to February has been snapped to the downside. The first red flag has been signaled with the violation of the support level so now look for additional red flags such as any trend that develops making lower highs and lower lows on a consistent basis.

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Keep in mind, it was March and April 2006 that started the steak of weakness last year in this ratio and the market as a whole.

Weekly New High – New Low Ratio (NH-NL) for 2007:
Saturday, January 6, 2007: 279-67
Saturday, January 13, 2007: 344-39
Saturday, January 13, 2007: 281-46
Saturday, January 27, 2007: 316-55
Saturday, February 3, 2007: 502-45
Saturday, February 10, 2007: 558-53
Saturday, February 17, 2007: 428-48
Saturday, February 24, 2007: 556-42 – This past week (a short week)
Saturday, March 3, 2007: 187-130
Saturday, March 10, 2007: 96-125
Saturday, March 17, 2007: 114-145
Saturday, March 24, 2007: 284-53
Saturday, March 31, 2007: 227-68

Below is the latest action among the industry groups I follow to gauge market strength from one area to another:

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Is Mastercard Priceless

Stock of the Day
Mastercard
Monday’s Intra-day Price: MA – $107.28

This global payment solutions company provides services in support of the credit, debit and related payment programs of nearly 25,000 financial institutions. You should be familiar with their excellent “Priceless” commercials.

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The stock enjoyed a great run starting in July 2006 after its IPO earlier last summer. It offered multiple entries during the first ten weeks of trading before making a 149% gain from a low of $43.48 to a peak of $108.51 in four months. The stock then started its current consolidation phase between $90.42 and $118.07 which has lasted for the past 18 weeks.

The stock has corrected along the 50-day moving average multiple times over the past three to four months and seems to be holding steady with institutional support. As the numbers show below, institutional buying increased during the most recent reporting periods so that can lead us to believe that this stock has major support and legs to make another run. Remember, Google didn’t stop its run after it doubled from $50 to $100. That stock actually went on to double multiple times and gave investors multiple opportunities to join the party.

Buy stocks moving higher; ones making new highs and don’t be afraid to grab shares above the triple digit threshold! GOOG, CME, SHLD, NVR can all serve as excellent examples of higher priced stocks making better gains than the garbage below $10 per share.

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Stock Scams – Not a Fools Joke!

I will start by saying that I don’t know if this link is legit (it was provided by Howard Lindzon, so who knows – lol).

However, I had to make a post when I read how this fool made $139,000 trading in front of a live audience on May 13, 2006 in Las Vegas.

One problem: This guy forgot to mention that May 13, 2006 was a Saturday; so as Curtis Faith pointed out in the comments section of Howard’s blog, it must have been tough trading a closed market.

I would hope this is an April fools ad but it doesn’t look like that!

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See for yourself: I made $139,000 that day

What a LOSER!

Calpine gets Bids

I hate to bottom-fish as the market’s garbage lies along the floor of the exchanges. However, I have been highlighting Calpine over the past several months (12/6/06) as it has moved from $0.97 to $2.12. I have clearly indicated the institutional accumulation on the daily and weekly charts and even backed them up with official institutional reports in a post titled Calpine Comeback? (3/15/07)

Yes, the stock is speculative but I just can’t ignore the accumulation on up-days. The stock has been falling on ligher volume and gaining large chucks on huge volume.

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Market makers? Pumpers? Schemers?

Something tells me no in this case and I went out and bought shares in a sub $10 stock to follow my beliefs. As I disclosed in my last blog post, I grabbed shares at $1.31 although the position is much smaller than my typical size due to the speculative nature of the trade. However, if the stock makes a comeback, I will be rewarded handsomely on my shares with very low risk. The position is now up 59% at the end of the day today after a 17% gain on volume double the daily average.

The article below makes me feel good but I will continue to trade the charts in this stock, not the news and see where it takes me. So far, so GOOD! (I still prefer buying a $130 stock such as NMX but CPNLQ is making new 52-week highs).

Calpine gets bids from firms, companies-sources
By Caroline Humer and Michael Flaherty

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – Bankrupt Calpine Corp. (CPNLQ.PK) has received offers from financial and corporate buyers, including at least one bid for the entire company, according to sources familiar with the situation, in the latest sign of a revival in demand for power generating companies.

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SEO Poker Tournament Results

Well, I played!
I played well but I didn’t finish in first or in the money.
Aside from the top prize of high quality links worth up to $1,000,000, the next five positions paid a total of $5,000 which was offered by Full Tilt Poker.

Only 38 bloggers (a little surprised) showed up to play in the tournament so my odds were high to finish “in the money” but I just couldn’t pull it out. I was trying to win and represent the stock bogging community but came up short. Here’s a list to all the participants of the 2nd SEO Poker Tournament.

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I was the chip leader early on as you can see in the screenshot above. We all started with a stack of 3,000 chips and I quickly placed an all-in bet against another blogger and won with a straight versus two pairs. He slow-played the two pairs and I completed my straight draw on the turn. I just called his bet after making my straight and then pushed all-in after the river, hoping he would call. He did and I was now the chip leader but it was early in the tournament as 94% of the players were still game.

After a few rounds of play, some juggling of the players to different tables and a player break, I found myself in fourth place with 9,000 chips. The leader had about 14,000 chips at this time but I was still in excellent shape.

With 15 players left, I was dealt A-9 off-suit and decided to call a small raise from the small blind. Lucky for me, 7-9-9 came on the flop and I was now tempted to slow play a very powerful trips hand with top kicker. I called another small raise from a player and looked towards the turn. An eight fell and the board now looked like this: 7-9-9-8

I was first to bet with a pot near 1,000 chips and blinds at 150 & 300 (my stack was near 8,000 chips and my opponent was near 7,000 if I remember correctly). I bet out with 1,200 chips and he raised, to my surprise. I now thought he was bluffing or had the nuts with a 10-J. I was already pot committed so I got pissed and pushed all-in with my three 9’s and was called. A queen flipped on the river and he won with a straight and I was devastated late in the tournament with 1,100 chips and large blinds (relative to my new short stack).

I should have never slow-played the flop and placed a large enough bet to make him fold his draw before the turn. Like trading, you must take what is yours and I didn’t and got caught the same way I caught a player earlier in the tournament. My thinking was to take a substantial win which translates into greed and I was taught a lesson. Greed is bad in poker and in trading.

After the huge loss, I pushed all-in the next three hands and doubled my stack to 2,300 chips but was still in bug trouble as the leaders were now above 20,000 chips. On my final all-in, I had K-Q and I was called by someone with K-J (both hands were off-suit). I was dominating this hand and had great hopes of doubling-up once again but the flop came and a JACK was the middle card. My tournament ended with the flip of two more cards and I finished in 12th place. Half-way to the money (sixth place paid $450 in cash).

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Overall, it was fun but I felt I could have placed in the money and will once again look to learn from my slow-play of a hand that was mine prior to the turn. The problem is: I gave it away with a thought of greed!

Congratulations to dnic24 of the PokerOwnageDOTcom Poker Forum for winning the grand prize.