Price and volume were telling the story long before the announcement yesterday. I didn’t see the action in OPBL because I shy away from lower priced stocks but it’s just another classic example showing how technical analysis beats news to the punch! Fundamental analysis could have also clued in an investor as sales and earnings were increasing but the up-trend and huge volume were the ultimate clue.

I only found out about this story because I am shareholder in NMX and I get news stories sent to my inbox. Take a look at the charts in this blog entry and study how “someone” knew something was going to happen. “Someone” always knows before the news hits the street.

For more about market news, technical analysis and fundamental analysis, see this entry: Do Not use Fundamental Analysis Alone!

BRIARCLIFF MANOR, N.Y., Jan. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Optionable, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: OPBL) a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives brokerage services, announced today that it and three of its founding stockholders have executed a binding term sheet for an agreement with NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NMX “NYMEX”) concerning certain cooperative technology initiatives, the acquisition of a 19 percent stake in Optionable by NYMEX from its three founding stockholders and the issuance to NYMEX of a warrant which would permit it to increase its stake.

About Optionable
Optionable, Inc. is a leading provider of natural gas and other energy derivatives trading and brokerage services, headquartered in Briarcliff Manor, NY. The company provides its services to brokerage firms, financial institutions, energy traders and hedge funds nationwide. In addition to the traditional voice brokerage business, Optionable developed an automated derivatives trading platform. OPEX® is a real-time electronic trade matching and brokerage system designed to improve liquidity and transparency in the energy derivatives market. For more information about Optionable and OPEX please visit www.optionable.com.

About NYMEX Holdings Inc.
NYMEX Holdings, Inc. is the parent company of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., the world’s largest physical commodity exchange. NYMEX offers futures and options trading in energy and metals contracts and clearing services for more than 250 off-exchange energy contracts.

Through a hybrid model of open outcry floor trading and electronic trading on CME Globex® and NYMEX ClearPort®, NYMEX offers crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, coal, electricity, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, platinum group metals, and soft commodities contracts for trading and clearing virtually 24 hours each day.

Stock of the Day
Jones Soda Co.
Friday’s Intra-day Price: JSDA – $13.08

Jones Soda is a lower priced sister stock of Hansen Natural (HANS) which has the potential to make a nice move and a possible up-trend in 2007. The ideal entry area is along the 200-d m.a. with shorter term entry points along the 50-d moving average or above $10.50 on the point and figure chart. I have shaded an area in blue on the weekly chart that interests me for establishing a position as long as the overall market maintains some strength. The stock is currently extended for a buy so I don’t own shares and haven’t taken a position in the MSW Portfolio. Jones debuted on the MSW Index on January 6, 2007 at $11.73 with analysis similar to what I just wrote above.

The overall market has started to flash sell signals so I am not as aggressive in my buying until I know what is going on. Many recent leaders are falling on heavier volume so this raises red flags in my book!

Jones Soda (JSDA) has been featured on two blog posts over the past Six Months:

December 18, 2006
Stock Predictions for 2007 – Oh NO!

“JSDA – 10.03, as mentioned last week, Jones is a low priced sister stock of Hansen Natural (HANS) which has potential of a nice move and possible up-trend in 2007. The Ideal entry area is along the 200-d m.a. with shorter term entry points along the 50-d m.a. and above $10.50 on the point and figure chart”

– The stock is up more than 30% since this blog post on December 18, 2006.

August 18, 2006
Ten Stocks under $10

“JSDA – 7.80, risky as it tests its 200-d m.a. The sister stock of HANS may have downward pressure if Hansen Natural continues to stumble below its 200-d m.a. Stocks move in packs so be wary if HANS breaks down further”

– This would have been the ideal time to buy as it was near the yearly low but I never picked up shares at this juncture because HANS scared me away as it was breaking below the 200-d m.a..

Jones Soda markets and sells its Jones Soda, Jones Naturals and Jones Energy brands through its distribution network in select markets across North America. A leader in the premium soda category, Jones is known for its innovative labeling technique that incorporates always-changing photos sent in from its consumers. Jones Soda products are sold through traditional beverage retailers and everywhere you’d never expect to find a soda.

Next Earnings Date: 3/8/2007
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Beverages – Soft

Stat: Value of $10,000 invested five years ago: $146,941 today

Held by Institutions: 1.78%
Money Market: 57
Mutual Fund: 70
Other: 3

Top Holder: Vardon Capital Management, LLC
2.1 mil Shares for < 0.57% of Portfolio Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $755.0 million *The top Institutional Holder (Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd) for HANS is the number 5 largest institutional holder for JSDA with 500k shares Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $331 mil (1/10th of HANS)
Outstanding Shares: 25.42mm
Short Ratio: 22.35
Operating Margin: 8.46
Net Income $M: 3.09
ROA (%): 11.20
ROE (%): 13.69
P/E (TTM): 88.86
P/E (Forward): 93.30 (extremely high)
Price to Sales Ratio: 8.65
Earnings per Share (EPS) (TTM): 0.14
Book Value per Share: 0.29
Price to Book Ratio: 8.16

PEG Ratio: 3.11 (much too high for my liking – I target stocks with a PEG below 1.00 and the lower the better).

What is a PEG Ratio?
A stock’s price/earnings ratio divided by its year-over-year earnings growth rate.
Anything below 0.5 is considered excellent

Next Quarter 0.01
Next Year 0.08

Earnings:
Yearly (2006): 0.08E
Yearly (2005): 0.06
Yearly (2004): 0.06
Yearly (2003): 0.02
Yearly (2002): -0.06

Revenue (millions):
Yearly (2005): 33.51
Yearly (2004): 27.45
Yearly (2003): 20.10
Yearly (2002): 18.57

3-Year Sales Rate (growth): 24%

Net Income:
2005: 1.28
2004: 1.33
2003: 0.32

Cash Flow:
2005: 1.50
2004: 1.52
2003: 0.50

The fundamental numbers of JSDA are not in the same league as HANS but the chart does catch my attention. If HANS makes another run, JSDA and FIZ may tag along for the ride. If a risk/reward ratio of 3:1 or better develops, I will grab shares and!

Stock of the Day – UPDATE!
Hanson Natural
Thursday’s Intra-day Price: HANS – $36.86

HANS has been one of the top performers in both my own portfolio and the MSW Index over the past two years. The stock has been screened more than 50 times on the weekly analysis from 2005 to 2006 and it has been mentioned in a couple dozen blog posts since August 2005. It has made countless daily screens since 2005 and if I had to guess, the number would be between 150 and 200 screens. My first blog on HANS came back on July 11, 2005 and was the start of a long research relationship. Below are a few key blog entries for HANS (some images and charts may be missing because the original files were uploaded to blogger servers and I haven’t recovered and replaced all of those files since moving to WordPress).

May 9, 2006
This “Buds” for HANS

March 13, 2006
Can HANS do it Again?

January 13, 2006
Hansen Natural (HANS) Does it Again

July 11, 2005
Buy High and Sell Higher

Next Earnings Date: 3/8/2007
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Other Beverages

Hansen is recovering the 200-day moving averages for the first time in almost six months and has started to pop back on my fundamental and technical screeners. Last night, the stock made a screen titled “Interesting Stocks within 10% of the 200-d Moving Average”.

I am also following a kid sister stock named Jones Soda (JSDA) which will be profiled here on the blog tomorrow.

Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages in the United States and Canada. It offers natural sodas, fruit juices, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies sparkling lemonades and orangeades, noncarbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, seltzer waters, lemonades, juice cocktails, children’s multivitamin juice drinks, and noncarbonated lightly flavored energy waters. The company also provides vitamin and mineral drink mixes in powdered form. It sells its products primarily under the brand names, including Hansen’s’, ‘Blue Sky’, and ‘Junior Juice’ to retail and specialty chains, club stores, mass merchandisers, full service distributors, and health food distributors. Hansen Natural Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Corona, California. – Company profile provided by Yahoo Finance

Amazing Stat: Value of $10,000 invested five years ago: $708,121 today

The stock was only held by 49% (institutional) when I did my first blog case study back in March 2006.

Held by Institutions: 76.75%
Money Market: 215
Mutual Fund: 313
Other: 20

Top Holder: Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
15.6 mil Shares for < 0.01% of Portfolio Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $706.0 billion (almost $1 trillion) Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $3.3B
Outstanding Shares: 90.0mm
Short Ratio: 4.21
Operating Margin: 18.36
Net Income $M: 87.98
ROA (%): 45.16
ROE (%): 60.83
P/E (TTM): 43.11
P/E (Forward): 25.23
Price to Sales Ratio: 7.16
Earnings per Share (EPS) (TTM): 0.89
Book Value per Share: 1.41
PEG Ratio: 1.26
Price to Book Ratio: 17.56

Next Quarter 0.27
Next Year 1.11

Earnings:
Yearly (2006): 1.11E
Yearly (2005): 0.65
Yearly (2004): 0.22
Yearly (2003): 0.07
Yearly (2002): 0.04

Revenue (millions):
Yearly (2005): 348.9
Yearly (2004): 180.3
Yearly (2003): 110.3
Yearly (2002): 92.05

3-Year Sales Rate (growth): 56.65%
3-Year Net Income (growth): 180.91%

Net Income:
2005: 62.8
2004: 20.4
2003: 5.93

Cash Flow:
2005: 63.8
2004: 21.2
2003: 6.58

Does HANS have another run for investors?