The Best of chrisperruna.com in 2007

I went ahead and developed an excellent recap of the “best of 2007″ chrisperruna.com educational articles. I am not including entries written about specific stocks as they can be found by doing a simple search using their ticker symbols.

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If you missed anything from 2007 or are a new reader, here’s a second chance to digest some of the most talked about material from the past year. The articles are listed starting in January 2007. Some great material can be found throughout this post!

Happy New Year!

January

February

March

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Investing in Honey, MEDIHONEY

My last stock purchase of this year and first of next year will be 110% speculative and based on a hunch and nothing more. I had the same feeling last year with Calpine (see below for details).

Why is it speculative?
1. Because it trades under $10 per share (it actually trades under $2 per share).
2. Because it trades over the counter (DSCI.ob)

I said I was done investing in stocks in 2007 but I read an interesting story in the NY Daily News while riding the train home from Manhattan on Thursday night (I took my wife to see Mama Mia on Broadway). Excellent show by the way!

The article highlighted Derma Sciences Inc. (DSCI.ob), a Princeton, NJ company that engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of dermatological related products in the areas of wound care, wound closure and specialty securement devices, and skin care in the United States and internationally.

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The general description didn’t catch my attention but the fact that the FDA green-lighted it’s product Medihoney on Nov. 7 is what got me thinking (this could be bad – lol).

MEDIHONEY™ is the first honey-based product cleared for use by Health Canada and also the first cleared for use by the FDA. These unique dressings contain Active Leptospermum Honey, indigenous to New Zealand (Manuka) and Australia (Jellybush). The dressings can be used in all phases of wound healing and could be considered a key dressing in any wound bed preparation protocol. These qualities can help to take much of the guesswork out of wound management.

As the Daily News states, honey is most likely to catch on among Americans inclined toward alternative health treatments - especially those concerned about overexposure to antibiotics as drug-resistant staph becomes more common.

Honey has been used since ancient Egyptian times to heal wounds and prevent them from becoming infected. It has natural anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties that are especially potent in a strain known as manuka cultivated in Australia and New Zealand.

Israeli doctors reported in the journal Medical Oncology that 64% of cancer patients who ate the honey didn’t develop anemia, and 40% didn’t suffer a low white-blood-cell count.

Some predict that honey will become a part of big business among alternative treatments and I firmly believe this could be true. Therefore, I will be putting my money where my mouth is by buying shares as the market opens tomorrow. It will be a small position but one that I will add to if the stock does what I expect it to do.

Interesting Technical Developments:

  • It was up more than 48% on huge volume over the past week and that CATCHES my attention.
  • It gained 27.66% Friday on volume 4.5 times the 3-month average. I was slow (on vacation) and didn’t buy Friday (could have enjoyed a large portion of that 27% gain)
  • Volume was more than 5 times the weekly average this week and more than 10 times the weekly average three weeks ago. (Started to make its move from $0.65 to $1.20)

This is not a typical buy that I place into my portfolio but I did something very similar last year with Calpine and it worked very well (VERY WELL)!

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Chris Perruna Stocks in Review 2007

2007 Case Study/ Stock of the Day/ Highlighted Stocks Update
It was a phenomenal year for trend traders of small and mid cap growth stocks! Of all the stocks mentioned on this blog, only 32 were covered extensively. These stocks were detailed in case studies, stock of the day analysis or highlighted in one or more daily screens.

Most covered CP stocks in 2007:

  • BIDU: 31 times, 314% peak gain (debut 4/25/07 at $103.50; current price $399.67)
  • JASO: 21 times, 211% peak gain (debut on 6/13/07 at $24.55; current price $75.02)
  • EDU: 18 times, 149% peak gain (debut on 2/2/07 at $36.93; current price $84.06)
  • MA: 17 Times, 112% peak gain (debut on 4/2/07 at $107.28; current price $209.48)
  • MR: 13 times, 81% peak gain (debut on 1/30/07 at $24.95; current price $43.41)

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Overall, the group of 32 performed marvelously over the course of the year and their results would have made most investors very happy; a solid expectancy for a trend buying system during an up-year.

A simple buy and hold strategy (through Wednesday’s closing prices) would have the portfolio at 17 winners and 15 losers. Please note that I do not recommend buy and hold investing. Sell rules are extremely important and can be found throughout the site. Money management rules are a must while investing but I decided to show you what a simple buy and hold strategy could do if you invest in young growth stocks while trending higher.

General Statistics:
53% win ratio (69% winning percentage using sell rules)
74.9% Average Winning Trade
23.9% Average losing Trade

314% - Top Peak Gainer
42.1% - Worst Loser (does not include sell rules – approx 10% max loss would be incurred).

149% - JSDA, Top Peak Gainer currently showing loss (would have been sold for 87% gain)

Employing a basic 10% sell stop from purchase price while using the simple buy and hold strategy would currently have the portfolio of 32 stocks at a collective gain of 43.4% or almost 10 times that of the S&P 500.

Not bad when covering a wide variety of stocks on a blog over the course of one year.

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Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and a Wonderful New Year

I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Holiday and a Wonderful New Year!

I will be updating the performance of key chrisperruna.com case studies from 2007 over the next week.

  • Preview: my case studies (the stocks I highlighted and bought the most) were up more than 40% collectively with a simple buy and hold strategy (more than 20 stocks).
  • Impressive if you ask me!
  • The strategy did even better with specific buy and sell rules.
  • To compare, the NASDAQ is up 11.5% and the S&P 500 is up 4.7% for the year (to date).

See you on Wednesday with the first batch of performance numbers.

Watch this awesome display at Lindsaylights.com (2006 display) or youtube!

The Next Chinese IPO - GU

We’ve had a very successful year here on chrisperruna.com with Chinese stocks, specifically Chinese IPO stocks.

Of the five Chinese stocks I have owned, JASO has been the top performer in my portfolio from start to finish. BIDU is a close second and would have been first by a long shot if I had held the entire time. The others are MR, PTR and EDU.

The Next Chinese IPO:
Now it’s time to jump on the next IPO that’s about to debut on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “GU”. Chinese biodiesel fuel producer Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd. (GU) said it plans to raise about $171.6 million in an initial public offering of American Depositary Shares (ADS).

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According to an SEC filing, Gushan is selling 15 million ADS, and a group of selling shareholders is offering 3 million ADS. Each ADS represents two ordinary shares. Gushan expects the offering to price between $11.50 and $13.50 per ADS (assume $12.50 per share to equal the $171.6 million mentioned above).

The company plans to use a majority of the IPO proceeds to expand its production capacity by buying manufacturing equipment and constructing additional facilities. Remaining proceeds will be used for research and development efforts and for other general corporate purposes.

According to an Associated Press article, Gushan is the largest biodiesel producer in China in terms of annual production capacity in 2006. The company produced and sold 136,587 tons of biodiesel in the first nine months of 2007, and aims to increase annual production capacity to 400,000 tons by the end of 2008. An increase of almost 200% (something that peaks my interest).

What is Biodiesel?

Biodiesel is a renewable, clean-burning and biodegradable fuel produced from feedstocks such as vegetable oil, animal fat and recycled cooking oil. Typically blended with diesel fuel, biodiesel is used in the diesel engines of trucks, mass transit vehicles, ships and generators. Additionally, the byproducts of biodiesel production have numerous commercial applications in the food, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.

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For the nine months ended Sept. 30, the company reported income of $33.4 million, compared with $36 million in the prior-year period. Revenue for the period rose to $98.3 million from $81.5 million in the first nine months of 2006.

Merrill Lynch & Co. is serving as lead underwriter of the offering. CIBC World Markets and Piper Jaffray are also underwriting the IPO. The selling shareholders have given the underwriters the option to buy up to 2.7 million additional ADS at the offering price to cover any overallotments.

Competitors:

  • China Biodiesel International Holdings
  • East River Energy Resources
  • SINOPEC
  • CNOOC
  • PetroChina

Tuesday Update (I wrote this piece over the weekend):
Chinese biodiesel producer Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd on Tuesday raised about $173 million with an initial public offering that priced below expectations. (Not Good - this sector is getting hit over the past week)

The 18 million offering of American depositary shares sold for $9.60 apiece, compared with a forecast range of $11.50 to $13.50, according to an underwriter.

My View on Chinese Stocks in General (12/19/07):
I understand that the Chinese market is currently in the middle of a bubble type run but who is to say when that bubble will end. Bubbles can last a lot longer than many believe. You can try to predict when it will end but I will continue to trade it until is really ends! I’ll let you know where I get in and how the trade sets up. I am five for five with Chinese stocks in 2007 so why not jump in and grab another. I had people tell me I was crazy ten months ago when I was buying stocks like EDU and MR (bought JASO and BIDU a few months later).

The stock may or may not work but I trade opportunities, not predictions! What do you trade?

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