Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (YGE)
Stock of the Day
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE)
Monday’s Closing Price: YGE - $32.24
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor (Solar)
52-week Price: $10.48 - $41.50
As I said last night, the stock took a hit to end last week on heavy volume which concerns me but corrections are healthy. A pullback to the mid $20’s could be possible based on the prior pullback in October and November. I am looking to add shares based on institutional numbers alone (which are listed below). Approximately 10 million more shares were bought than sold for an estimated “plus” $400 million during the last reporting period.
We had 47 new positions established while 3 positions were sold out (about 15.6-to-1 ratio of buyers to sellers). The float is 25% of the outstanding shares and the market capitalization is more than $4 billion which puts this stock in the bull’s-eye of major institutional investors.
Volume is averaging about 5 million shares traded per day and increasing as each month passes. The ideal entry is somewhere in the mid-$20’s range or slightly above the prior pullback area of $22.50.
This stock has triple digit potential and could be a leader come year’s end. If the opportunity presents itself: trade it and follow the rules! If it fails, sell! It’s that simple.
Sister Stocks (Top Rated Industry by IBD):
FSLR - $236.84
STP - $74.96
SOLF – $31.78
JASO - $68.05
Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $25.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $22.50
Number of Shares: 400
Position Size is $10,000
Risk is $2.50
Target is $44.00 (based on former peaks and bottoms)
Reward-to-Risk is 7.6-to-1 with ideal entry; less with current price
Institutional Analysis:
Held By Institutions: 18.07%
Total Held by Institutions: 71
Money Market: 57
Mutual Fund: 14
Other: N/A
New Positions: 47 – excellent!
Positions Sold: 3
Shares Held: 33.4 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 24.2 mil
Shares Bought: 16.0 mil
Shares Sold: 6.8 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $626 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $266 mil
Top Institutional holders; Shares Held:
Mackenzie Financial Corporation; 5,497,300
Ivy Global Natural Resources Fund; 4,670,200
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft; 3,483,974
Miura Global Management, LLC; 2,564,000
Powershares Exhg Traded Fd Tr; 2,538,311
Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $4.4B
Outstanding Shares: 126.9M
Float: 29.0M
P/E (TTM): N/A
PEG Ratio: N/A
Price to Sales Ratio: 10.22x
Price to Book Ratio: 8.35x
Total Debt/Total Capital: 23.06%
Quick Ratio: 1.92x
Operating Profit Margin: 15.55%
Gross Profit Margin: 22.93%
Net Profit Margin: 13.13%
3-yr EPS Rate: 110%
3-yr Sales Rate: 240%
EPS Growth (MRQ): 86%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 129%
Earnings:
Yearly (2009): $1.56E - High: $2.47
Yearly (2008): $0.86E
Yearly (2007): $0.46E
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Chris: Could you share where you get your institutional data? The data I see in IBD is significantly different and even looking at MSN today they show 38 new positions and a different mix of ownership (which I assume is outdated).
Thanks
Hi Chris
Very good analysis………but I do not agree with the entry price you gave. I am sure you were using charts to come to that analysis. I think 33 is the ideal entry according to trendlines.
Mid 20s is sth we might never see unless the market tanks.
Dian
Mike,
I use Vicker’s Institutional Research.
Dian,
Yes, a trnedline is there as I posted int he chart on Monday but I don’t like the risk/reward in that spot so I won’t take the trade there. Too much risk versus too little reward above $30 (for me at least).
Good post man! I agree $33 is still pricy…we will see the 20’s.
Hi.chris Entered position @24.85. grate work keepit up. H.
I haven’t bought YGE - due to market weakness but may enter a portion of my position tomorrow if we open up across the board. I had a big feeling that the mid $20’s was very possible with a market pullback.
A close below $22.50 is not veyr positive!
[...] am looking to take my first “long position” in YGE if the market bounces in this position. Below is my trade setup from January 8, 2008 when the stock [...]
Its little wonder this stock has been recommended by credible institutions such as Piper Jaffray, Merrill Lynch and Collins Stewart.
Its likely YGE had reached its lower threshold at $24. Support was exceptionally strong at this level. Upward volatility suggests a high degree of interest in the stock, outweighing the economic fallout.
[...] Great analysis by Chris Perruna [...]
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