Too many talking heads and so-called market experts continue to make predictions on the market, the economy and the general direction of this country (and the world for that matter). I can’t stand predictions (except for Plaxico Burress’ prediction prior to the Super Bowl last week – Go Giants).
I have compiled a list of excellent quotes to combat the constant bombardment of predictions on television, in magazines, on blogs, the internet and on the nightly news; I love quotes and agree with the ones below 110%!
Try and predict the market while trading and you will go broke, that I can predict with certainty. The men and women below couldn’t have been more correct when speaking of the ignorant dopes that try to predict everything in life! When will the predictors learn to shut up? I know: when idiots stop listening to them and paying for their garbage (see best seller doomsday list).
Enjoy, it’s a fun post today!
- “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu
- “He who knows, does not speak. He who speaks, does not know.” – Lao Tzu
- “Never make predictions, especially about the future.” – Casey Stengel
- “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.” – Peter Drucker
- “If one could foresee the next three days, one could become rich for several thousand years.” – Anonymous
- “If you learn one thing from having lived through decades of changing views, it is that all predictions are necessarily false.” – M. H. Abrams
- “I figure lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest.” – Alan Cox (the MEDIA!)
- “History can predict nothing except that great changes in human relationships will never come about in the form in which they have been anticipated.” – Johan Huizinga
- “You can only predict things after they have happened.” – Eugene Ionesco
- “In the future, instead of striving to be right at a high cost, it will be more appropriate to be flexible and plural at a lower cost. If you cannot accurately predict the future then you must flexibly be prepared to deal with various possible futures.” – Edward de Bono
- “You never know what the next day is going to bring. That goes for football, goes for off the field, and I gave up a long time ago trying to predict the future and trying to deal with things I couldn’t deal with.” – Brett Favre
- “Predictions of the future are never anything but projections of present automatic processes and procedures, that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do not act and if nothing unexpected happens; every action, for better or worse, and every accident necessarily destroys the whole pattern in whose frame the prediction moves and where it finds its evidence.” – Hannah Arendt
- “To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
- “The unpredictability inherent in human affairs is due largely to the fact that the by-products of a human process are more fateful than the product.” – Eric Hoffer
- “My predictions are notably inaccurate.” – Robert Caro
And Finally…
- “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay
In the book “Your Money & Your Brain” by Jason Zweig, Mr. Zweig labeled humans “prediction addicts” … a “prediction addiction” that runs hot and fast through our base DNA and begins in the “dopamine centers of the reflexive brain”. There’s an entire chapter on Prediction and how it relates to trading and investing. An extremely illuminating read if not somewhat disheartening.
“To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.” — Friedrich Nietzsche
I like the last quote “to predict the future is to invent it”. That’s what I feel so many of these market Gookru’s (gurus) are trying to do. They are fueling the FEAR that they want, so they can move the market in their direction. Eventually it will get OLD and fail to work anymore…I guess that is when bad news can’t move the market down anymore, also known as the bottom.
I can predict with absolutely certainty that we’re headed for a major stock market panic and crash, and a new 1930s style Great Depression.
Why? Because the stock market is overpriced by a factor of almost 250% (same as in 1929).
Since 2003, I’ve posted almost 1000 articles, most containing specific predictions that have come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. The “trick” is to use Chaos Theory to know what things can and can’t be safely predicted. There is no pundit, analyst or web site in the world with anything remotely close to the predictive success of my web site.
Predictions:
* Macro economy (2003): Deflation, rather than inflation, would dominate, and prices would fall by about 30% by 2010.
* Macro economy (2003): We’re entering a new 1930s style Great Depression, and the stock market will fall to Dow 4000 or lower.
* Palestine/Israel (2003): The “Roadmap to Peace” would fail. Once Yasser Arafat disappeared, the region would descend into chaos, leading to a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs.
* Iraq (2003): There would be no civil war and no anti-American uprising.
* Iran (2003): Pro-American and pro-Western student demonstrations (like America in the 60s) would continue
* America (2003): Unlike the 60s, there would be almost no student antiwar demonstrations, and any that start would fizzle quickly.
* America (2004): Men and women would return to stereotypical gender roles, with women focused increasingly on the children.
* America (2004): Politicians will resort to bitter fighting, and become less and less able to get anything donw.
* Darfur (2004): The UN would be completely irrelevant, and would have no effect on the Darfur conflict. It will continue until it’s run its course.
* China (2004): China is headed for a major internal civil war, as well as a war with the U.S. over Taiwan with absolute certainty.
* Lebanon (2006, as war began): Israel would fight an aggressive “existential war,” while Hizbollah would fight half-heartedly.
* Burma / Myanmar (2007): The new burst of violence would fizzle soon, and would not spiral into a civil war.
* Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years.
* Europe (2004): The proposed Constitution would NOT be approved. There will be a new European war, one component of which will probably be France versus Britain.
* World (2003): A new “Clash of Civilizations” world war.
Sincerely,
John
John,
Please see my opinion of your predictions by repeating the first two quotes:
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu
“He who knows, does not speak. He who speaks, does not know.” – Lao Tzu
Those quotes don’t really make sense, and aren’t even the kinds of thing that Lao Tzu said.
If “He who speaks does not know,” then only mutes know anything.
Those quotes sound like the kind of thing that would come from a Hindu guru or a Zen Koan. Lao Tzu’s style was nothing like that. He was brutally direct and didn’t tolerate that kind of nonsense.
The following is more typical of Lao Tzu, and relates to the current discussion:
“Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is FOREKNOWLEDGE.”
Now THAT makes sense to me.
John
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t this blog promote trading stocks? And if so, doesn’t that, by definition, require making predictions? Appears as though the pot’s calling the kettle black.
PJ,
The blog promotes trading education and equity research – not predicting anything in the market. Take a look and let me know if you see predications anywhere. I have no idea where the market will end today or even within the hour – telling you I know is a prediction and I don’t and can’t do that.
I am in the business of trading, which means making decisions based on risk versus reward setups. Some are right, some are wrong, the point is to make money on the right side and lose less on the wrong side. I don’t predict nor will I ever.
Take a look around the 600 pages – no predictions here.
Hi, I see some interesting opinions here. I agree either with Chris and John.
I have learned and practiced some trading strategies, and found each of them useful and profitable. Each trading strategies have their advances and weaknesses. None of a trading strategy claimed as the best above of all, right?
At the first time, I used “reactive” trading strategy. Some says it is ‘trend follower’. This strategy requires no prediction. All you have to do is ‘buy’ when indicators told you to buy, and ‘sell’ if indicators told you to sell.
Now, I use “predictive” trading strategy. Not of all the predictions are correct, but reward big profit when it correct. The main purpose is not to be always right, but to make big profit when I’m right and cut short the losses when I’m wrong.
There is no trading strategy could fit and applicable to all users, right?
Someone have to find a trading strategy that could fit their needs and make them comfort to use it.
Currently, I invest or trade in Indonesian Stock Exchange. I haven’t invest or trade in US stock market.
I’m sorry for my language, I still learning for English.
These doomsayers will eventually be right one day…I’ll make a prediction it will happen in 2060…I’m writing it down on my calendar. Ooops, I’ll be long dead….guess I won’t have to worry about it then.
Dear Janet,
Well before 2060, the Singularity will have occurred. “The Singularity” is the name given to the point in time where computers become more intelligent than human beings, with the same creative capabilities to do anything that a human can do, only much faster. By around 2030, computers will be doing their own research and manufacturing to make themselves even more powerful.
There’s no way to predict what will happen after that, even whether the human race will continue to exist by 2060.
John
Predictions are GOOD, actually. It does make it clear that we really don’t know with certainty. That’s a good thing. Sports, no clue who will win. Politics, usually no clue. Romance, no clue. Markets, no clue, etc…. so when you give a prediction you come off as some “expert”. It’s a better feeling than doing something so remedial that any idiot can do it and the results are fixed; example, make a hamburger. Even huge companies guess a little bit before they spend a ton on R&D, and they definitely guess or make a prediction what their customer will like.
A quote that springs to mind at the moment is: “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.”
Take this quote: * Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years.
If we have a look at it, what it really says is “there might be some sort of war in kenya in the next 10 years but I can’t be sure.” or to paraphrase even further “I just spent two lines to say nothing.”
Gee man, thanks a lot.
Thanks for the comments – it makes for great blog conversation. I still ignore people that predict – at all costs!
Who wants to predict the next president? or where the NASDAQ will close this Friday.
Bottom line – what’s the point?