Trend Reversal Coming…?

Will the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial and S&P (SPDR’s) confirm the 1-2-3 Trend Reversal like Blackrock has?

Time will tell, give it another 1-3 months to confirm (September may be the time but I can’t tell you for sure). Wait for the confirmation before taking the short trade. A move above the “blue” line breaks the pattern setup!

I can tell you this: The trend has been challenged, the minor low has been established and now we are looking to work on “point #2”. A failure to recover the blue line will establish point #2. A violation of the horizontal red line will confirm point #3 and trigger the short play: TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMATION.






  1. Chris,

    From a fundamental viewpoint, I would say your timing is about right. I track ECRI’s (Economic Cycle Research Inst.) weekly leading index and it is in the negative territory. An interview with ECRI on Yahoo said we will know within two months whether we are back in recession. This is the reason for the discussions about more stimulus measures. This falls in the middle of your guess.

  2. Thanks for the analysis!

  3. Hi Chris!

    I think you are not alone, who are waiting for the Trend reversal to the Downside.
    There are many Bullish blogs / Bearish blogs and Objective blogs.

    I believe, that there is very little chance, that this market can continue upward more than a few month maximum.

    Though the down move, probably crash will not come in the next 1 – 2 weeks, with our predictor systems we will be able to see the tide coming, before it actually arives, if tha tis about to happen, as we expect it.

    Regarding the ECRI-s stuff, that Janet mentioned, it is True, and you can find articles in that topic.
    One of my favorite is from Chis Puplava at financial sense. (You can find his latest analysis there.)

    I am avid reader of the financial sense site, active Day-trader and swing trader (overnight trader), researcher and system developer myself.

    Enjoy the coming trading week.

    Joe Papczun

    You can find me at:

  4. Your analysis was right. I think economy stumbled and is falling. It was a bubble economy and all bubbles have to burst. It’s not going to be pretty.

  5. Chris

    I know you must be busy with the family thing but if you don’t post more frequently the theories get old real quick

  6. Chris H,

    “Family thing” – really – this blog means nothing compared to family. You should have caught me 3-5 years ago when I posted everyday. There are more important things in life than blogs and twitter.

    My research is long term, it takes patience so calm down. I am not a day trader. Follow me on twitter if you want more.

  7. I hope you are right. I’m already short on almost everything I have. Let’s wait for August jobs report.

  8. Chris,

    Based upon the recent market performance of the SPY, could we say that the market has breached the resistance at the 105 level? This was a level of support and the market broke thru this a few weeks ago. So has the market reversed trend again?


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