I will start by saying that my poker expectancy may not be an exact science but it does give me a great idea of how I will perform next year when I play a similar number of games online (if the government allows ISP’s to allow players access to these sites). I personally play on PokerStars and only do it for fun as I enjoy the strategies and challenges each game presents. I’m primarily a low limit poker player because I don’t have the stomach of a gambler even with excellent odds on my side (sometimes luck does play a part). I play sit-and-go games online because they are short and sweet and the best players can typically make the money three out of every four games. In my case, I made the money 71% of the time in 2006 as I will explain in a second.
When I travel to Atlantic City or Las Vegas, I play $1-$2 no limit cash games because they offer low entry fees for potentially unlimited reward. I occasionally play cash games online but I have a better record playing sit-and-go tournaments with 9 players at a table.
I decided to keep statistics of every sit-and-go game in 2006 so I could develop expectancy similar to the one I have been keeping for my trading account.
I have played 174 games with a $10 + $1 entry fee to date.
Of those 174 games:
In total, I placed in the money 71% of the time.
Each game costs me $10 plus a $1 entry fee paid to the casino for a total of $11.
First place awards $45 (50%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $34.
Second place awards $27 (30%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $16.
Third place awards $18 (20%) minus the entry fee of $11 for a profit of $7.
My total account position varies because of the cash games but according to these notes, I made $1,155.00 in 2006 by playing $10 sit and go games. The breakout occurred like this (all fees have been subtracted from winnings):
PW is71%
AW is $13.75
PL is 29%
AL is $11.00
PW: Probability of Win
AW: Average Gain
PL: Probability of Losing
AL: Average Loss
If I play 15 games per month for each of the twelve months next year, I can expect to make approximately $1,182.60 with $10 sit and go games. My actual expectancy per game is $6.57.
So, for every game I play, I can expect to make $6.57 regardless of a win or loss and the size of the win. My goal is to increase the number of first and second place finishes by becoming more aggressive in the late stages of the game.
Interesting stuff if you ask me and I will keep you updated as I continue to play in 2007. I am looking to step up a level and play $20 + $2 games but the level of skill rises with each level so my expectancy is sure to change.
As long as you have data and a consistent way of playing the game (in this case with the odds of each hand), you can calculate an approximate expectancy that is sure to be accurate.
Hello – are you telling us that you finished 3rd or higher in 124 out of 174 $10 buy-in tournaments?
I’m sorry – I am either misunderstanding or finding it very hard to believe that. Thanks …
Mike,
You may be misunderstanding me. I play sit and go games (9 people per table per game). Not tournaments – I rarely ever play in tournaments because of the low odds of winning.
I have a 33% chance of placing “in the money” in sit and go games because 3 of every nine people make the money. Don’t believe it if you don’t want – why would I lie about such small $10 games with a total profit of about $1,000 in 12 months. That’s about $85 per month. Now that would be stupid of me to kill my credibility!
How long are these tournaments? Most that I have played in take a few hours. Assuming 1 hour tournament length, you are making $6/hour. Personally, I can think of better things to do with my time. But if it’s just for fun…
Rodney,
Yes, a sit-and-go game takes anywhere from 40 minutes to one hour and ten minutes (rare games can take 90 minutes). It does look like a waste of time when you look at $6.57 per hour but this is a hobby of mine. Most hobbies take money out of people’s pocket. I don’t do it for money. I do it for enjoyment – to relax at the end of a long day or to kill time on a slow rainy weekend. Golf is another hobby of mine but I don’t make $6 per hour (expensive courses can cost me up to 10x’s my poker winnings per hour).
The idea of the post was to calculate a true expectancy using poker as the example.
Chirs,
Thanks for entering the contest. I thought I’d let you know the results. Happy trading!
Sorry about the misspelling…without a name tag on, I get all confused. LOL!