A Few Good Men, Clemens Style

Enjoy on this cold Saturday in NY!

Clemens: You want answers?

Congressman: I think I’m entitled to them.

Clemens: You want answers?

Congressman: I want the truth!

Clemens: You can’t handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has baseballs. And those balls have to be hit by men with bats. Who’s gonna do it? You? You, Congressman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for steroids and you curse HGH. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that HGH, while illegal, probably sells tickets. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, sells tickets…You don’t want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that mound. You need me on that mound. We use words like fastall, slider, splitfinger…we use these words as the backbone to a life spent playing a sport. You use ’em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and falls asleep to the Sportscenter clips I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I’d rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a bat and dig in. Either way, I don’t give a damn what you think you’re entitled to!

Congressman: Did you order the HGH?

Clemens: (quietly) I did the job you sent me to do.

Congressman: Did you order the HGH?

Clemens: You’re god damn right I did!!

Buffett a huge bull on the American Economy

I am a trend trader, as mentioned hundreds of times, but I listen when Mr. Warren Buffett speaks! Below are the most logical statements I have heard in a long time. He makes much more sense than the predictions we are bombarded with by the talking head media and so-called “experts”. The so-called experts barely take home a six figure salary (if half of that), many stuck in the rat race but are qualified by major networks and media outlets to educate the masses (or sheep as I like to call them).

I’ll pass on the information from all the talking-heads and listen very attentively when the second richest man on the planet and greatest investor of all-time speaks. I am also bullish on the United States over the long term as nations and markets work in cycles. I am not a believer in doomsday predictions, authors, books or religions. Like Warren Buffett and William O’Neil, I am long the United States for the rest of my life until something shows me the trend has ended. The past several years (dating back to 2000) are a small pimple on the ass of this great country.

“I am a huge bull on the American economy,” said Mr. Buffett, in an exclusive interview with the National Post.

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Financial markets around the world have been heaving amid fears that banks will have restrain lending and damage other areas of the economy in order to shore up their capital and rebuild their balance sheets.

But Mr. Buffett says the United States has survived such turmoil before.

“We’ll always get through,” he said. “I’m a bull on the United States. Just think about how silly it would have been to be anything other than a bull on the United States since 1790. It is not a smart thing to sell the United States short over the years — or Canada for that matter. The world does get better. People get more productive. More human capacity is unleashed over time.”

“He said the banks will be able to work out their troubles without government assistance but may not be the “best investments.”

“They’re going to be around,” he said. “The ones that have taken the big write-offs, they’re not going out of business but they’re selling a lot of new shares in the process so they’re diluting future earnings. They’re paying a price.

“I think most of the very big ones and I won’t name names, I think five or 10 years from now people will have made money on them but I think they’ll have made money on other things too. I don’t think necessarily they’re the best investments, but they have not been permanently crippled.”

He sees no need for any government bailouts in the financial sector, similar, to the government rescue of U.S. banks during the savings and loans crisis in the early 1980s. U.S. banks have enough money to handle the extra cost.

“They can handle it and they’re paying a price for it,” he said. “Somebody has to bear those losses. Is it better that the XYZ bank bears it or is it better to socialize it for the American public. I’d rather have the XYZ bank pay for it.”

[Read more…]

Basic Materials (Oil) Stocks Making New Highs

Only thirteen stocks made my new highs screen based on specific criteria as described in this post. Of the thirteen stocks, half were from the oil and gas industry which tells me that it’s a short term leader during any up-trends in the recent market downturn. Steel and iron, specialty chemicals and synthetics were also among the few stocks making new highs on strong looking charts (when compared to recent beaten down leaders).

Each of these industry groups fall under a broader sector labeled “basic materials”. It couldn’t be clearer as to where the smart money was throwing funds today as volume spiked across these industries and especially among the stocks making new highs.

I understand that recent market leaders such as AAPL, BIDU and JASO (up more than 12%) were also higher today but they are still far from new 52-week highs and some are still under key moving averages such as the 50-day.

Basic Materials: Independent Oil and Gas, Specialty Chemicals, Steel and Iron and Synthetics flexed their muscle today and the stocks below were among the few making new 52-week highs. Making new highs after the recent market downturn speaks volumes for the relative strength of these stocks. Several of them are extended from ideal entry points but do not leave these off any near term watch lists on the long side.

Trade the trends – one of the simplest methods to make money in this world. I am not calling for a bull market but these stocks have support from the smart money and I have no problem jumping aboard even if it only last a short while.

Stocks hitting New Highs Monday on Strong Volume:

  • MTL – 111.60, Mechel Steel Group was up 10.60% on volume 97% larger than the daily average
  • EOG – 98.43, EOG Resources was up 4.58% on volume 112% larger than the daily average
  • SWN – 61.87, Southwestern Energy was up 6.54% on volume 63% larger than the daily average
  • RRC – 59.61, Range Resources was up 4.82% on volume 19% larger than the daily average
  • NEU – 60.97, Newmarket Corp. was up 3.90% on volume 341% larger than the daily average
  • KWK – 32.03, Quicksilver Resources was up 7.48% on volume 21% larger than the daily average
  • CCC – 18.09, Calgon Carbon was up 8.13% on volume 148% larger than the average
  • WMS – 39.85, WMS Industries was up 3.45% on volume 65% larger than the daily average

Study the charts as they are among the best looking in today’s market. It’s hard to buy new highs, especially in this weak market environment but if you must buy long, think about these candidates.

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[Read more…]

Could you Trade Full Time?

I get this question often and always offer the same answers to allow the person to determine if they can trade full time. I don’t trade full time and I am not sure if I ever will because I am great at what I do: trend trade longer time frames.

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Take this quick quiz and honestly determine if you are built to trade full time:

  • Are you properly capitalized?
    I wouldn’t suggest anyone start to think about trading full time until they have at least six figures that can be used solely for trading. Living expenses must come from other income or saved funds. Without six figures (and the more then better), I suggest you continue to build your stake.
  • Are you a successful part time trader?
    Why do you think you can succeed being a full time trader if you haven’t made money as a part time trader? Have you built your own stake to six figures trading part time? If so, you pass this question with flying colors.
  • Have you developed a system that works?
    Does your system have a positive expectancy? Have you back tested the system (I don’t hold too much weight to this question)? Do you understand position sizing and do you implement it properly so you don’t blow-up with one or two trades?
  • Does your system offer enough opportunity?
    Without opportunity (multiple trading signals per day/ week), you will not be able to achieve your system’s expectancy. A lack of opportunity may skew your results and turn your anticipated positive expectancy to a negative expectancy and cause you to go broke.
  • Can you handle your emotions?
    How do you handle your emotions now with longer term positions or part time trading? Do you follow your rules, all the time? Will you have pressure to make money every month, week or day? Can you handle being alone (most cases) and staring at a computer for large portions of the day?
  • Finally, do you have spouse or other influence that will interfere with your endeavor?
    A spouse, friend or family (member) can have a negative affect on your trading that may result in subconscious sabotage. Outside negative forces or nagging pressure people may lead you down a path that is not controllable because you are trying to prove something rather than “just trade” based on your acquired skills. Make sure the closest people in your life support you while making the move to full time trading.

Lessons Learned after 25 Years of Trading

We must understand that investing is NOT about winning and losing, it’s always about the bottom line or net result. Once an investor accepts this statement as truth, they will see their bottom line grow. It took me several years to finally believe this statement and train my emotions to also believe it. As humans, society trains us to win at everything and this cripples the potential success of most novice investors and seasoned investors alike.

I have an article to share that I read about 3 years ago.

Lessons Learned after 25 Years of Trading
By: Thomas N. Bulkowski

NOTE: Bulkowski refers to two charts in this article but I do not have the images to upload here. The original article was published in the September 2005 edition of SFO Magazine, a publication about Stocks, Futures & Options.

Profits lost can be lessons learned. Eight simple lessons taught by the greatest teacher of all – experience.
Trading stocks doesn’t require a college degree. A trader’s education may begin at a bookstore or be handed down from relatives. Even before I earned my driver’s license, I became interested in stocks. After college, I contacted two dozen investment firms and reviewed their prospectuses for my first investment: a money market fund. I paper traded stocks for four years before I bought my first one, mostly because I didn’t have the bucks to invest, but also because the riskiest investment my parents ever made was in a U.S. savings bond. The result was worth the wait as I made 88 percent on that first stock. Over the years, I learned a number of lessons worth sharing, and although simply reading them cannot prepare a trader for the profits and losses and the stress of placing trades, it’s certainly a start.

Half of All Trades Will Fail
This surprises most beginning traders. My lifetime win/loss record is 49 percent, and it falls in the 40-percent to 60-percent range that many professional traders are rumored to maintain. How often a trader wins or loses is less important than how much they win. If a trader makes a million dollars in one trade and loses $10,000 in each of ten trades, he still has $900,000 to play with despite a win/loss percentage of just nine percent.

Use Stops to Limit Losses
If half of all trades fail, then a trader needs to know how to limit losses and maximize gains. One easy way to do that is to use a stop-loss order. . I bought 400 shares of Linens ‘N Things at 31.75 after the earnings announcement caused the price to gap up, forming what I call an earnings flag – a generic term for a price pause after an earnings announcement. I sold at 35.20 when price pierced an up-sloping trendline drawn beneath the valleys, confirmed by other technical indicators I follow and a downward turn in the general market. I made $1,350 in a month – more than ten percent on the trade.

As price climbed, I raised my stop from 28 to 30.84, to 32.13 and finally to 33.23. Notice how the numbers are oddball ones, not 31, 32 or 33.25. I don’t use round numbers, as they are common support or resistance zones. I place my stops below the support zones, trying to give price every opportunity to move higher.

When price climbed above the prior peak and made a new high, I raised the stop to a few cents below the nearby valley. Peaks and valleys are places where price is likely to find support, so they make handy stop-loss locations.

Notice how price formed a second peak at 36 and change – a double top – before sliding down to 24. Holding onto this stock and riding price lower would have been a costly mistake. That’s why stops are so important.

Scenario Trading: Ignore News
I read the business press daily but don’t pay much attention to trends they see forming. I remember a columnist in a weekly news publication touting that gold was a buy. Once a month, he’d quote a different expert who said the price of gold had bottomed and now was the time to buy. Gold continued down. A full two years later, his prognostication finally came true. Gold bottomed. Anyone buying gold stocks during his bullish buy signals would be choking on the metal.

Scenario trading is believing the sound bites and trading on them. The times I have invested in a scenario, I find myself so confident of the analysis that I invariably lose big, taking losses that are 15 percent or higher instead of the usual five to ten percent. As price drops, I average down (buy more at a lower price), compounding the loss. Averaging down is a wonderful technique for buy-and-hold investors willing to wait years for a stock to recover, but it leads to large losses for traders. Don’t average down, and don’t believe the scenarios spun by the news outlets. The purchase may be near the peak, or from a portfolio manager who is dumping his shares.

Let Profits Run
Want to make a bundle in the stock market? Don’t trade. If a trader uses the weekly scale for signals, he will make more money per trade than if he uses the daily scale. If a trader uses the daily scale, he’ll make more money per trade than if he trades intraday. As the trading frequency increases, the per-trade profit decreases. This makes intuitive sense. A stock can double in a year, but a trader would be hard pressed to double his money in one intraday trade.

Day trading allows a trader to make small amounts of money numerous times in one day. Position trading allows a trader to make a larger amount of money, but it may take days, weeks or even months to achieve the results.

I’m not knocking day trading. What I am suggesting is that a trader should let profits run. Don’t be so quick to sell. Whether day trading, position trading or buying and holding, there will come a time when it will be wise to sell. Wait for it. Follow a few stocks, and get a feel for how they move. Learn to predict significant price turns.

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WordPress 2.3.3 is acting very wierd over the past few days as i am having trouble saving drafts. Any ideas?