Can we STOP with the Predictions?

Too many talking heads and so-called market experts continue to make predictions on the market, the economy and the general direction of this country (and the world for that matter). I can’t stand predictions (except for Plaxico Burress’ prediction prior to the Super Bowl last week – Go Giants).

I have compiled a list of excellent quotes to combat the constant bombardment of predictions on television, in magazines, on blogs, the internet and on the nightly news; I love quotes and agree with the ones below 110%!

Try and predict the market while trading and you will go broke, that I can predict with certainty. The men and women below couldn’t have been more correct when speaking of the ignorant dopes that try to predict everything in life! When will the predictors learn to shut up? I know: when idiots stop listening to them and paying for their garbage (see best seller doomsday list).

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Enjoy, it’s a fun post today!

  • “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu
  • “He who knows, does not speak. He who speaks, does not know.” – Lao Tzu
  • “Never make predictions, especially about the future.” – Casey Stengel
  • “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.” – Peter Drucker
  • “If one could foresee the next three days, one could become rich for several thousand years.” – Anonymous
  • “If you learn one thing from having lived through decades of changing views, it is that all predictions are necessarily false.” – M. H. Abrams
  • “I figure lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest.” – Alan Cox (the MEDIA!)
  • “History can predict nothing except that great changes in human relationships will never come about in the form in which they have been anticipated.” – Johan Huizinga
  • “You can only predict things after they have happened.” – Eugene Ionesco
  • “In the future, instead of striving to be right at a high cost, it will be more appropriate to be flexible and plural at a lower cost. If you cannot accurately predict the future then you must flexibly be prepared to deal with various possible futures.” – Edward de Bono
  • “You never know what the next day is going to bring. That goes for football, goes for off the field, and I gave up a long time ago trying to predict the future and trying to deal with things I couldn’t deal with.” – Brett Favre
  • “Predictions of the future are never anything but projections of present automatic processes and procedures, that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do not act and if nothing unexpected happens; every action, for better or worse, and every accident necessarily destroys the whole pattern in whose frame the prediction moves and where it finds its evidence.” – Hannah Arendt
  • “To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
  • “The unpredictability inherent in human affairs is due largely to the fact that the by-products of a human process are more fateful than the product.” – Eric Hoffer
  • “My predictions are notably inaccurate.” – Robert Caro

And Finally…

  • “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay

Where's the Smart Money Going?

What else can I write about after the major indexes dropped 2.93%, 3.08% and 3.20% (DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500)? Volume wasn’t overwhelming for the day but peaked during the hours of the major decline. The first two days of this week have basically wiped out all of the gains from last week while the S&P 500 has now recorded its worst year-to-date start in the index’s history (according to Investor’s Business Daily).

Avon Products, Church and Dwight and Apollo Group were among the stocks making a positive move this week. These are not the stocks you want to lead a strong market (we all know it’s far from strong). Cosmetic, personal care, household and education industries are all related to defensive moves for investors. Run for cover from the former leaders when these stocks rise to the top.

However, the names below may provide for nice safe havens while this market sorts itself out. Their relative strength ratings are holding steady and their declines from recent 52-week highs (some at all-time highs) are rather impressive when compared to the fallen leaders that are now off by as much as 60%. Even long time superstars such as AAPL are off by almost 40%, GOOG by 30% and MDR by 30%.

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Will Institutional Investors park Money here?

  • CPLA – 60.70, a primetime $60-$100 candidate as the stock corrects back towards the 200-d m.a. for the first time ever. A nice moving average (accumulation) buy – not far from all-time highs
  • MA – 206.78, even with the credit crisis, this stock is within a few dollars of its all-time high. Continue to accumulate shares along the long term moving day average. Remember, MasterCard isn’t responsible for default loans (the banks are).
  • POT – 139.86, what was I smoking when I passed up POT on numerous buying opportunities in 2007. I guess I can realistically say that it never pulled back to the 200-d m.a. so it slipped my best risk/reward screens. Still a place for funds to park money
  • FSLR – 178.00, the stock has corrected by 50% since hitting its peak but it is still holding the 200-d m.a. strong, a sign of institutional sponsorship
  • JASO – 50.25, still a nice play as it challenges the 200-d m.a. for the first time since the IPO debut last February. The Olympic hype, solar angle, IPO aspect and increasing earnings should keep this one flying.
  • RIMM – 88.30, the blackberry stock has corrected back to the 200-d m.a. for the first time since 2006. The correction is welcomed so let’s watch to see if it can hold the line. A nice accumulation area if it holds its weight. Keep an eye of the 10/30-week crossover to the downside (a negative signal).

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None of these stocks are recommended buys when the “M” in CANSLIM is weak but do keep an eye on them and accumulate when you find the best risk-to-reward setup and a sign of life in the market.

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Gushan (GU) Making a Move

I wrote about “The Next Chinese IPO – GU” on Wednesday, December 19, 2007 and consider it the first unofficial “stock of the day” of 2008. The stock was up 18.27% on volume 252% larger than the average; the largest volume spike since the stock’s IPO debut.

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Fools like Cramer and CNBC said the stock was under the radar until today but readers here have known it was out there and has potential in the upcoming year. It touches upon a few hot topics and stock drivers from the past couple of years: energy, china and IPO’s. Three categories that are not unfamiliar on this blog (especially in 2007). It does scare me that Cramer (profit jinx) mentioned Gushan today but I will ignore the superstitions and continue to follow the stock while grabbing shares.

A second firm from Wall Street decided to initiate coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation. I labeled the stock a buy the day it debuted and maintain that analysis based on my fundamental and technical research:

“The Next Chinese IPO:
Now it’s time to jump on the next IPO that’s about to debut on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “GU”. Chinese biodiesel fuel producer Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd. (GU) said it plans to raise about $171.6 million in an initial public offering of American Depositary Shares (ADS).”

Earnings Estimates:
FY 2007: $1.02E
FY 2008: $1.52E +49%
FY 2009: $2.00E +31%

Revenue (in millions):
2002: 5,258
2003: 10,422
2004: 23,793
2005: 49,840
2006: 113,891

Net Income:
2002: 2,080
2003: 5,361
2004: 10,245
2005: 21,069
2006: 45,972

PEG Ratio: 0.77x
P/E Ratio: 38.49

Why the surge today? The stock seemed to be following a surge in the Shanghai market.
Another stock of related interest higher today: YGE, up 13.38% on volume 60% larger than average66666666666666666666666
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WORLD CHAMPION NY GIANTS

GO G-MEN, you are best this year!
The Pats were good but they finished with 18 wins and 1 GIANT LOSS!

“The relentless Giants rolled to a Super Bowl championship – and now they’ll roll up the Canyon of Heroes.

Tomorrow’s ticker-tape parade will begin at 11 a.m. at Battery Place, head north on Broadway to Chambers Street, and be followed by a ceremony at City Hall Plaza, where the team is to be honored by Mayor Bloomberg and a host of officials.” – NY Post

I will be there to celebrate the best team in the NFL on this Championship day! Boo-hoo to the class-less Belichick – have fun with Congress!

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The peak rating between 9:30 and 10 was 47.8, with a whopping 105.7 million viewers, more than a third of all Americans.

Super Bowl XLII was watched by an average of 97.5 million viewers, according to Nielsen’s “fast national” estimates, making it the most-watched American sports event ever, easily surpassing the 94.1 million for Super Bowl XXX between the Steelers and Cowboys in Arizona 12 years ago.

Fox was working Monday afternoon to determine exactly where the game ranked in the history of all sports and entertainment programs. The M*A*S*H finale in 1983 was seen by an estimated 106 million people, No. 1 on the list.

The game attracted 43.2 percent of households and 65 percent with a TV in use, making it the highest-rated Super Bowl since the Rams-Titans game in 2000 (43.3/67).

The Blog is Hot

Chrisperruna.com may be hitting a tipping point here in early 2008 as the statistics blew away the slow holiday month of December. They even crushed my best month of November by a wide margin. The best part is that I didn’t have any special links that boosted my traffic in one particular day. I did have links throughout the month from several of the higher traffic blogs such as TraderMike, Traderfeed, The Big Picture and the Wall Street Journal Online (and many others) but my daily traffic was steady throughout the month on days without links.

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This tells me that people are really enjoying my work with confirmation by the dozens of positive statements in my comments (bottom of each blog entry).

I want to thank you all for taking the time out of your very busy schedules to visit my small education and equity research blog – I love what I do here, it’s a passion of mine!

My feedburner subscriptions are increasing but I don’t think many of you know that my blog posts can be sent to you via e-mail updates or through your favorite home page readers such as Google and Yahoo (among others).

Click the large icons below and sign up for FREE to get my daily blog posts in your e-mail and/or favorite reader:

Page views and visits were up by more than 66% and 53% respectively for the best month ever. Thank you again – I really do appreciate every single reader of this blog and especially readers that leave their excellent comments!

My goal is to become one of the best stock market blogs offering quality and unbiased equity research along with the education to help you succeed. We are well on our way to 100,000 page views per month (with an ultimate goal of 1 million per month) and I owe it all to the readers!