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VMware Earnings Conference Call

October 24, 2007 by 9 Comments

I don’t like spec plays heading into a conference call but I am playing VMW on the long side today, using options. I did buy distant puts to lower the risk so I guess I have a funky long straddle set to go. Let’s see what happens.

VMware, Inc. Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2007)
Scheduled to start Wed, Oct 24, 2007, 5:00 pm Eastern

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VMware Completes First Run

Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over!

Keep Riding the IPOs

VMW – 107.04, the stock completed the $60-$100 run and is now above the triple digit threshold. I am looking for a base at or slightly above $100 for a new entry (to add shares). If it doesn’t base, I will ride my original position.

Daily Screen for Friday 9-7-07

VMW – 69.79, it’s the first time I am covering the stock as it is yet to build any recognizable base. However, the support and hype is still there so be ready to pounce on pullbacks and look for a ride towards the triple digit threshold ($100). An unusual $60-$100 run.

Daily Screen for Tuesday 9-11-07

VMW – 76.76, the stock was up 10.45% on one of the largest daily volume days since its debut. Today’s move shot the stock into new all-time high territory. The stock is up 20% over the past four days.

Filed Under: IPO, Stocks

Follow the Leaders

October 23, 2007 by 7 Comments

Watch the action among these leaders to truly gauge where the market is headed. Step back and view their long term charts so you don’t get caught up in the day to day MINOR movements!

Seriously, step back and throw the charts on the floor or hang them on a wall across the room and you will clearly see the trends. These stocks have been leading the market higher and will give the FIRST clues of a market looking to go lower! We did have our second major distribution day last Friday and fourth overall but these stocks will tell the ultimate story!

The major Superstars include AAPL, GOOG, PTR & MDR
The minor or more recent Superstars include BIDU, FSLR, GRMN, EDU and others on the blog. See my stocks category to find the leaders of 2007.

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Filed Under: General Market, Stocks, Technical Analysis

The Real PTR Climax Run?

October 18, 2007 by 12 Comments

I was early in September by trying to locate a climax run in PTR in this post:
Petrochina (PTR) Climax Top?

However, the HUGE volume on the latest push to new highs clearly indicates something is going on.

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As I mentioned in the last post, a climax top is where the stock has advanced for many months and suddenly races up for one or two weeks much faster than any prior one-or two-week period or since the beginning of the stock’s long move up.

And the stock does this on the largest volume of the run (something that didn’t qualify in my September post at $181). PTR finally has the extreme run with large amounts of accompanying volume. I do advise selling into this incredible strength, especially since Warren Buffett has sold most if not all of his holdings in Petrochina as documented in the SEC filings.

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Filed Under: China, Selling, Stocks

It Pays to Learn English

October 16, 2007 by 2 Comments

The young superstar, EDU, was up 12.56% Monday on volume 368% larger than average as it closed at a new all-time high. Below are the links to the extended coverage I have given EDU over the past ten months.

Yes, I did sell a portion of my shares early but the stock has become a trending superstar. The weekly chart is a perfect example of making higher highs and higher lows without violating any major trend lines.

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The institutional holdings and the potential of their products and services is what truly caught my interest. The institutional holdings are still looking solid but not as good as they looked back in February. And yes, the bull in the Chinese market helped!

EDU, New Oriental Education, Added on 2/6/07 at $36.93, +104%

Here are some of the comments I made during my initial coverage:

Not a lot of data exists for the young Chinese stock so I wanted to take the time to focus on institutional holdings and the amount of shares that have been accumulated so far (the first reporting period). As you can see below, the majority of new institutional investors loaded up over the past couple of months and I suspect that it all started in November when volume surged and the price accelerated from $26 to $33.

I like when I see $227 million worth of shares purchased and 93 new institutional holders versus only $770 thousand worth of shares sold. This shows me major support and interest by the so called “smart-money”. The company sounds interesting and looks to have an excellent market (a description is below).

Held by Institutions: 13.10%
Money Market: 45 (42 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 51 (50 new positions)
Other: 1 (1 new position)

Shares Bought last Period: 6,313,271
Shares Sold last Period: 22,600
Value of Shares Bought: $227,073,203
Value of Shares Sold: $770,637

Current Institutional Holdings:
Held by Institutions: 174
Money Market: 91 (25 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 78 (23 new positions)
Other: 5 (2 new positions)

Shares Held: 23.480 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 19.552 mil

Shares Bought: 7.12 mil
Shares Sold: 3.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $447.5 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $200.7 mil

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About New Oriental
New Oriental is the largest provider of private educational services in China based on the number of program offerings, total student enrollments and geographic presence. New Oriental offers a wide range of educational programs, services and products consisting primarily of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for major admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education. New Oriental’s ADSs, each of which represents four common shares, currently trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ”EDU.”

Filed Under: China, IPO, Stocks

Keep Riding the IPOs

October 11, 2007 by 14 Comments

Don’t jump off a trend until it ends. I know, the cliché gets old but it always works!
Seriously, why would we want to fight the trend. If IPOs are working in 2007, join the party.

Some of you may ask: Isn’t it too late to join the party? Did I miss the boat?

All I can say is this:
Find an opportunity, setup the risk/reward and make the trade. Sell if it stops you out and hold on if it starts to take off. Understand what you want to accomplish with each position and know precisely how you will take profits on pullbacks, climax runs, etc…

With rules in place, your overall portfolio shouldn’t get hurt. Yoy may lose a few trades but your bottom line will only decrease by a few percent and you will know the answers to the questions above (the trend may be over). Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over!

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Strong IPOs trending Higher:

  • VMW – 107.04, the stock completed the $60-$100 run and is now above the triple digit threshold. I am looking for a base at or slightly above $100 for a new entry (to add shares). If it doesn’t base, I will ride my original position.
  • ATV – 23.28, an interesting stock that was up 23% on volume 158% larger than the daily average. The Point and Figure chart shows a triple top breakout buy signal on a move above $24
  • WX – 40.24, An excellent run over the past two months doubling investor’s money. I am looking for a short term base to form before attempting to grab shares. The pullback area for the next buy would be near $35.
  • EDU – 68.00, the stock is up almost 100% on the blog and is a personal holding. I did sell a portion of my position too early over the summer. They teach English to students and adults in China (talk about a money maker).
  • FCSX – 36.71, up 7% on volume 19% above the average as the stock is starting to gain momentum above the 50-d moving average. It looks like a good time to start accumulating shares (above the 50-d m.a.)
  • RVBD – 49.38, The stock is building an eleven week base with solid support near $37 (above the 200-d m.a.). Ideal entries should happen along the moving averages (50-d and 200-d) or a breakout to new all-time highs.
  • JCG – 45.88, the retailer is basing along the 200-d m.a. Now is the ideal buy for longer term trend traders. It’s a prime 200-d m.a. play (excellent risk/reward right now). However, it does need to overcome the 50-d m.a. to be successful!!!
  • JASO – 42.93, the stock has formed a perfect cup with handle base with a pivot point of $48.67. A spread triple top breakout buy exists on a move above $49.

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Others that make the list but are extended:
CMG, CPLA, SNCR, GTLS, CROX, FSLR

Filed Under: Daily Stock Screens, IPO, Stocks
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