You are here: Home / Home

The NY Mets Blow It!

September 30, 2007 by 7 Comments

Well, the season is over! The MUTS, I mean METS will now go down in history as the team with the largest blown lead in the history of baseball. They were up by 7 games with 17 to go and blew it all!

I give my valuable time, energy and passion – all for nothing! Several bums on this 2007 team!

093007_muts.png

My Grades and thoughts:

  • GM – Omar Minaya: F, get a clue and get some pitching next year, don’t rely on a bunch of over the hill and inexperienced players. Can we PLEASE make a move instead of sitting on our hands in the offseason and at the trading deadline.
  • Manager – Willie Randolph: C-, he can only play with the hand dealt by Omar so he gets a better grade than his GM. However, he needs to learn how to manage the pitching staff and bullpen a lot better. Looks like he really paid attention to Joe Torre when using the bullpen (Joe’s weakest trait as a manager). Willy’s job is safe; overall I like him as the manager of the Mets!
  • C – Paul LoDuca: B-, He only gets a grade this high because he was one of the few to produce in September and has the heart of a champion. Too bad others in this club-house lack that heart. I would bring him back for 2008.
  • 1B – Carlos Delgado: F, He’s shot, done! I could care less if he never put on this uniform again (get him out of town). I doubt he could hit a beach ball if thrown down the middle of the plate in 2007. I can’t remember watching a player that chocked so much in one season during so many big at-bats. I wish I could ship this guy and his contract elsewhere! It’s time for a career in beer-league softball (he might be able to catch up with those pitches).
  • 2B – Luis Castillo: B+, I liked this trade and would enjoy watching him play a full season in a Mets uniform. He would score an A if he could hit a little better (rather than attempt so many failed bunt base hits).
  • SS – Jose Ryes: C, Started with an excellent first half but was lost at the plate in the second half. I now know why his contract was only half of that of David Wright’s deal. Come-on Reyes, what happened to having a good time and some patience at the plate?

    • [Read more…]

Filed Under: Sports

Trader Vic 1-2-3 Setup?

September 27, 2007 by 5 Comments

Clean Harbors (CLHB) looks to be setting up a 1-2-3 pattern as described in the book Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo.

As you can see:

  • CLHB broke the up-trend after establishing a new 52-week high.
  • From there, it consolidated and formed what is referred to as the minor sell-off.
  • Prices stared to rise but failed to make another new high. This test of the previous high failed near point number 2.
  • A failure to make a new high is usually (not always) a signal that the trend is about to change.
  • Finally, we reach point number 3 where prices went below the previous short term minor sell-off

However, prices didn’t continue to fall below this area so the position would still be established from the original penetration point. New investors should be looking for another penetration of the prior minor sell-off.

092607_clhb_wkly.png

In addition to the 1-2-3 setup, the stock has also allowed it’s 10-week moving average to cross below the 30-week moving average which typically signals a change in trend when both lines are starting to point down.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry (short position): $45.00 (right now below the moving averages)
Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 6% or $47.70 (above moving averages)
Number of Shares: 370
Position Size is $16,650
Risk is $2.70
Target is $40 or less
Reward-to-Risk is about 2-to-1 (the target is a guess but I prefer at least a 3-to-1)

Victor Sperandeo says this about the 1-2-3 setup:

At the point where all three of these events have occurred graphically, there exists the equivalent of a Dow Theory confirmation of a trend change. Either of the first two conditions alone is evidence of a probable change in trend. Two out of three increases the probability of a change in trend. And three out of three defines a change in trend.

Take a look at the picture I scanned from Sperandeo’s book on page 76:

092607_123_book.png

So, I’ll take the trade and see what happens. It can go up and whipsaw me out of the position but I have my stop and risk established so it won’t hurt the overall portfolio.

This is a game of odds with developed expectancies so take the trades and follow the rules.

Filed Under: Books, Stocks, Technical Analysis

Market Leaders!

September 26, 2007 by 2 Comments

Below are the updated charts for the stocks leading the market and the cp blog.

092607_bidu_wkly.png

092607_mdr_wkly.png

092607_jaso_wkly.png

092607_edu_wkly.png

092607_grmn_wkly.png

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Stocks

Petrochina (PTR) Climax Top?

September 25, 2007 by 12 Comments

Are we watching a climax top in Petrochina (PTR)?

If so, now is the time to dump shares and protect profits. So, you don’t want to dump them all; then sell half or at least a third of your position.

092507_ptr_daily.png

I have been taught to always sell all of a stock that has a climax top – this is where the stock has advanced for many months and suddenly races up for one or two weeks much faster than any prior one- or two-week period or since the beginning of the stock’s long move up). Petrochina is currently experiencing a dramatic push unlike any of the previous tops it has made over the past couple of years.

Another rule I follow explains that you should sell when your stock exceeds an upper channel line drawn across three price peaks over a period of many months on a weekly chart. We can clearly see that PTR is now violating the upper trend channel after it touched three prior price peaks.

092507_ptr_wkly.png

I can’t tell anyone what to do and I don’t want to either but I love presenting what I see based on technical analysis. PTR was a buy for me in February but I now see it as a sell.

What do you see?

Filed Under: Selling, Stocks, Technical Analysis

Donchian’s 5 and 20 day Moving Averages

September 24, 2007 by 2 Comments

Richard Donchian is known as the father of trend following. His original trend following ideas form the basis for all trend following success that has followed. Below in an excerpt from an article written in 1995 about his 5 and 20 day moving average system:

Title: Donchian’s five- and 20-day moving averages.
Author: Richard Donchian
Publication: Futures (Cedar Falls, Iowa) (Magazine/Journal)
Date: November 15, 1995
Publisher: Oster Communications, Inc.
Volume: v24 Issue: n13 Page: p32: ISSN: 0746-2468

BODY:
On Wall Street there are two conflicting adages:
1. “You’ll never go broke taking a profit.”
2. “Cut your losses short and let your profits ride.”

Experience has shown that in commodities trading, the first of these “old saws” is dangerous and misleading, while the second may well be regarded as the one lesson the inexperienced commodity trader should learn if he wishes to have a better-than-even chance to come out ahead.

Every well-designed, trend-following, loss-limiting method for trading in futures (or stocks) rests on the basic principle that a trend in either direction, once established, has a strong tendency to persist, at least for a time. Among the many trend-following approaches now in use are the Dow Theory, point-and-figure chart techniques, swing methods (other than the Dow Theory), trendline methods, weekly-rule methods and moving average methods. We’ll focus on moving average methods and, in particular, the comparatively simple five- and 20-day moving average method.

The Method
The rules for the five- and 20-day moving average method break down into two categories: general and supplemental.
General rules:

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Technical Analysis, Wall Street
« Previous Page
Next Page »