Archives for February 2008

Listen to My Audio Interview

February 29, 2008 by Chris 11 Comments

As promised, the audio version of my Trader Interview with Tim Bourquin is now loaded in the widget below. The interview lasts about 20 minutes covering topics such as how/ when I started trading, the types of fundamental screens I use each night and the four of charts I study for each stock I research.

The interview can also be heard on the Trader Interview website or this direct permalink using Windows media, RealPlayer, mp3 stream or direct link to mp3. My favorite place to listen is on my iTouch using iTunes, by subscribing to the free Trader Interviews podcast.

Enjoy and certainly let me know what you think!

Show notes: Chris Perruna is a part-time trader who holds positions from three to nine months at a time, looking for larger moves in stocks he chooses based on the CANSLIM method from Investor’s Business Daily. Here we talk about the three stock screens he uses each night, why he likes stocks that are about to bounce off their 200-day moving average and why he, even though he is a longer-term trader, will get out of a position the same day if the trade isn’t working out. Chris’ blog can be found at: ChrisPerruna.com.

Filed Under: Blogs, Media, Misc.

Is Big Blue Back (IBM)

February 27, 2008 by Chris 11 Comments

We all know IBM gave investors an excellent return last year versus previous years but can the stock continue to move higher. Is this the new and improved sustainable Big Blue?

International Business Machines (IBM) has been making some of its largest gains of the past ten years, starting at the end of 2006. Not since the late 1990’s has the stock enjoyed this type of run with volume support which translates into a positive accumulation/ distribution rating.

IBM went from a split adjusted price of $9.67 in 1993 to $132.52 at its peak in the 1999 bull market. It corrected to $51.77 in 2002 before trading sideways for the next four years. Something clicked in late 2006 and the stock ran-up from $70 to a high of $120.57.

IBM closed at $114.38 Tuesday night, a 5.84% gain on volume 98% larger than the average. The stock crossed back above the 40-week (200-d) moving average while also jumping back above the shorter term 50-d moving average. An ascending triple top breakout has also flashed on the point and figure chart.

Next stop: Is it a new multi-decade high which signals a buy?

Institutional Numbers:
Total Held by Institutions: 2,947
Money Market: 1,357
Mutual Fund: 1,472
Other: 118

New Positions: 288
Positions Sold: 125
Shares Held: 1.26 Bil
Shares Held Previous Period: 1.23 Bil

Shares Bought: 116.2 Mil
Shares Sold: 89.5 Mil
Value of Shares Bought: $12.14 Bil
Value of Shares Sold: $9.36 Bil

26.7 million new shares have been bought (versus sold)
$2.8 billion new dollars have flowed into the stock

So what does IBM do these days?
IBM’s business comprises three principal business segments: Systems and Financing, Software and Services.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Stocks

Daily Screen for Tuesday 2-26-08

February 26, 2008 by Chris 7 Comments

My fundamental screens are limited but I like it that way so I can concentrate on the stocks that are moving higher on above average volume. Only three stocks of interest made my final nightly screen tonight as was the case last night. Tonight’s stocks are all within 15% on new highs and moved higher on volume at least 50% larger than the 50-day average.

VIVO – 34.09, the stock was up 5.90% on volume 126% larger than the 50-day average. The stock is building an up-trending wedge that looks ready to challenge new multi-year highs. A move above $36 on heavy volume will be positive.
CEDC – 56.25, the 2007 superstar is currently building support and resistance levels between $45 and $61 as it looks to make new highs. A move above $61 on above average volume will qualify the stock as a possible $60-$100 candidate. This type of move will also reestablish its position as a market leader in 2008.
FSCX – 46.91, the stock was up 6.86% today on volume 62% larger than the 50-d average as it looks to challenge all-time highs. I have been following FCStone since last May (2007), prior to the 3:2 stock split (up 52% since that June 4, 2007 post titled FCStone Group Inc. (FCSX). It has had some ups and downs since my analysis but may finally be ready to make the true up-trend I felt it was capable of making.

As you will notice, tonight’s stocks are very similar to last night’s stocks (TITN, RIO and MTL) as they are moving higher (new 52-week highs) on above average volume: momentum plays.

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Filed Under: Daily Stock Screens

Stocks Catching my Eye

February 25, 2008 by Chris 5 Comments

Three stocks are catching my eye while making multiple screens over the past couple of weeks. MTL is up over 13% in less than two weeks since I highlighted it in a post titled Basic Materials (Oil) Stocks Making New Highs

MTL – 111.60, Mechel Steel Group was up 10.60% on volume 97% larger than the daily average

Trading momentum is paying-off in the current market environment. Swing trading breakouts making new highs on volume at least 100% larger than the average is king. It’s working so pay attention and be smart while putting on trades. MTL is no longer a buy since it has become extended but TITN and RIO may be setting up for new 52-week highs.

Filed Under: Stocks

RIMM is my Pick

February 22, 2008 by Chris 4 Comments

I choose Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM) as my stock for the ibankcoin.com 2008 March Madness stock tournament after reading about it on Rajin’ Cajun’s blog (formerly known as Madstocks blog). It’s all in good fun as I typically avoid contests because they make me do things I might not do otherwise (like trade and root for a stock based on a pick rather than reality).

I picked RIMM for several reasons:

I don’t own shares at this time so I can be objective
Q4 ends on March 1, 2008 with a reporting date of April 2, 2008 (spans contest)
The chart is currently bullish (daily and weekly)

We’ll see how I do. A blow out earnings date that hits the wire early gives me great odds and the market is always about odds (I looked at this competition from a poker player’s perspective rather than a pure investor/ trader). The odds are strong for good news prior to the official earnings release in April.

I thought about going short, with several stocks in mind, including Chipotle Mexican grill (CMG) but figured I historically do better with long positions. The market in general will be a huge influence during the contest. A down market will severely hurt my chances to win.

Recent Posts with RIMM highlighted: