Archives for 2008

Wall Street Cycles

Times are tough, banks are failing, the government is bailing out everyone but the common guy and Madoff is the new Ponzi. With all of this in mind, nothing is new on Wall Street. We’ve been through this before and will come out the other end, one way or another. The question is: Are you a sheep?

I will refer to a couple of quotes I have posted numerous times on this blog:

“All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope – that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis” – Jesse Livermore

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes” – Jesse Livermore

The books listed below were found through a fabulous list provided by the Hess Collection from An Exhibit at The University of Toledo ‘s William S. Carlson Library. February 22–April 30, 1999

As you can see, things will never change, as much as we wish they would because it’s in our DNA (we’re human).

Don’t these titles sound familiar:
How to Cope with the Developing Financial Crisis
By Ashby Bladen, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.

Financial Crises
By Theodore E. Burton, New York: Appleton, 1931.

Our Mysterious Panics 1830-1930
By Charles Albert Collman, New York: Morrow, 1931.

Booms and Depressions: Some First Principles
By Irving Fisher, London: George Allen and Unwin, 1933.

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“A”+ Stocks

Each of the stocks highlighted today have a ticker symbol and company name that begin with an “A”. No, I am not trying to toss a gimmick into my research; rather, I noticed that some of the best looking stocks showing up on my screens happen to start with an “A” (so I decided to have a little fun with the title).

AFAM – $45.10, Almost Family
The stock has a top relative strength rating and has been making new highs while the majority of all stocks collapsed over the past two months. The next test will be a new 52-week high on above average volume (further follow-through).

AVAV – $34.28, AeroVironment Inc.
The trending stock is about to challenge a new all-time high on above average volume. The ideal buy is closer to the 200-d m.a,, a place I first highlighted the young IPO as a “stock of interest” last June.

AIPC – $23.80, American Italian Pasta Co.
I highlighted the company last week in Strong Stock Charts at $15.95 per share, a 49% gain in one week.

APEI – $40.00, American Public Education
The stock displayed huge negative volume last week (on the weekly chart) but a closer look shows that the majority of this volume is coming while the buyers and sellers battle along the 200-d m.a. This stock first caught my eye last month in a post titled Three Stocks to Watch

AWK – $20.41, American Water Works Co., Inc.
The stock is trending higher on slightly larger volume and has held up well considering the carnage across the market. I prefer to see less daily volatility before it is to become a buy candidate on my watch list.

ATHN – $33.40, Athenahealth Inc.
The stock recovered the 200-d moving average for the first time in five months and is starting to gain momentum on higher volume.

Dollar falls, Crude up

The US Dollar violated the 50-day moving average for the first time in five months while the Euro Dollar crossed back above its 50-day moving average during the same period of time. Crude oil was up 10% as it closed above $48 a barrel and the ETN I highlighted from last week is now up 30% from its low. I do own 1/3 of my position in DXO but I can’t say I caught it below $3. I highlighted the three investments last week in a post titled:

12/02/08: Dollars, T-Bonds and Crude Oil

I started to mention Oil as a possible value buy in November:
11/26/08: Oil a Value Buy?

Here’s what I was thinking:

I mentioned my idea last week: Crude Oil ETN’s. My wife and I have agreed to start purchasing a stake in crude oil investments, starting this week with a 25% purchase of our fully anticipated position (DXO is the instrument). The crude oil charts have not turned positive and I have not received any buy signals such as the ones I highlighted in the dollar earlier this year but I am viewing this more from a value perspective rather than technical. Maybe I will strikeout big time but I am swinging for it anyway.

Too many Middle East talking-heads want to cut production and raise the price of oil. Maybe I am extremely early to this “rebound/ bottom-picking game” but I can’t seem to reason how oil will stay low for long (talking years here, not a short term position).

It will be fun to see how this plays out.

Institutions Accumulating Shares

Of the stocks listed Monday (Strong Stock Charts), The Ensign Group (ENSG) and TeleCommunication Systems (TSYS) have the strongest increases in institutional sponsorship from last reporting period to the most recent reporting period.

ENSG has witnessed a 26% surge in shares being held this period versus last period and a 303% increase in the value of shares bought versus the value of shares sold. TSYS shows a 24% surge in shares being held this period versus last period and an 81% increase in the value of shares bought versus the value of shares sold.

I know these aren’t the most exciting stocks when researching net income, revenues and cash flow but technically speaking, they have promise. Concentrate on the “up-days” versus “down-days” on the daily charts (up volume versus down volume) and take a look at the institutional numbers in greater detail:

ENSG – The Ensign Group, Inc.
Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 119
Money Market: 51
Mutual Fund: 64
Other: 4

New Positions: 39
Positions Sold: 4
Shares Held: 6.19M
Shares Held Previous Period: 4.91M +26%

Shares Bought: 1.69M
Shares Sold: 0.4M
Value of Shares Bought: $24.4M +303%
Value of Shares Sold: $6.1M

TSYS – TeleCommunication Systems, Inc.
Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 203
Money Market: 107
Mutual Fund: 91
Other: 5

New Positions: 107
Positions Sold: 18
Shares Held: 30.5M
Shares Held Previous Period: 24.7M +24%

Shares Bought: 13.0M
Shares Sold: 7.2M
Value of Shares Bought: $100.4M +81%
Value of Shares Sold: $55.4M

Strong Stock Charts

Today’s screen features quality stocks with increasing institutional fund sponsorship and charts with trends moving higher (trading above key moving averages as well). Not many interesting stock charts exist in this market but I can say that these look strong when compared to peers.

The stocks also meet the requirements below:

  • Earnings per Share (EPS) Rating: Increasing quarter over quarter
  • Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating: 60+
  • % of the number of mutual funds owning for current quarter vs. prior quarter: Increased by 10% or more
  • Stocks trading at new 52-week high or within 15% of 52-week high
  • 50-Day Average Volume was greater than or equal to 100% (Friday’s market)

Stock charts listed in alphabetical order:
(ACET), (AIPC), (CFFN), (COCO), (COGT), (DSCP), (EBS), (ENSG), (EZPW), (FCFS), (INSU), (LHCG), (LPHI), (MYGN), (THOR), (TSYS)

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