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100 Stock Tweets Since August

September 27, 2009 by 26 Comments

I figured I would recap my last 100 tweets to those of you that still check into this blog but don’t follow me on twitter. Please, check me out on twitter as I do most of my writing and thoughts over there as the new family life prevents me from writing intense, heavily researched stock blog posts. I am not in the business of writing short crappy blog posts so I focus my time on actionable ideas and education on twitter. I plan to one day return to more consistent writing on the blog. Until that day, follow my tweets to stay in touch with my thoughts on the market (1,200 other people already follow).

If you can take anything away from my recent tweets, focus on the message of the following ten tweets, reference the bold type (they all show caution and skepticism in the market based on the lack of individual leaders). New Highs have been reaching levels not seen in years but they are still far below the levels necessary for a “true bull market”, one that will be sustainable.

092709_NAS_daily

1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web

3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web

7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web

8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web

17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web

35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web

47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web

48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web

49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku

56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web

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See below for the complete list of my most recent tweets (100 total tweets – all dated and reproduced exactly as they appear on twitter).

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Twitter Updates

All-Time Top 10 NASDAQ Daily New Highs

August 3, 2009 by 8 Comments

The data in the below tables are compiled for the NASDAQ dating back to the 1970’s. I will admit that it doesn’t go back to day 1 in 1971 but it covers more than 30 years of new highs and new lows. Follow me nightly and weekly on twitter for my latest updates using this data in real time: Follow Me On Twitter

NASDAQ All-time
This first table shows us that seven of the top ten days with the most new highs came during the bull run of the 1990’s. The top day, Thursday, November 4, 1982 gave us the most NH’s all-time for the NASDAQ with 525 (only 13 new lows). The NH/NL 10-d MA Diff was 222, the NH/NL 30-d MA Diff was 196, the Adv-Dec Ratio was 1,087-469 and the NASDAQ closed at 225.01, up 1% for the day. The stock market bottomed on August 12, 1982 and rose 35 percent by the end of the year as we can see in the powerful NH/NL ratio averages listed above. The NH/NL 10-d MA Diff switched from negative to positive on Thursday, August 26, 1982 and never looked back (the tally was 180-15 that day); this was also the first day the NASDAQ NH/NL Diff popped above 100 since May that year. Talk about a market timer.

080109_NAS_top10_NH

NASDAQ – 2009
The list from 2009 is freshest in our minds because it’s present day data. All but one of the top ten NH days for the NASDAQ happened last month with the 10th day happening at the end of June. It’s interesting because the ratio is getting stronger but the leaders aren’t cooperating and we aren’t “blasting-off” with 200 & 300+ NH’s as we did in the 1982 bull, the 1991 bull, the 2003 bull or the bulls of the mid and late 1990’s.

080109_NAS_top10_09

NASDAQ – 2008
We only logged three days above 100 NH’s in 2008, enough said. If you didn’t sell your long holdings and were still trying to pick a bottom, pay attention to this data next time; you won’t get hurt so badly!

080109_NAS_top10_08

NASDAQ – 2007
The NH/NL moving averages sunk deep into the red by the fall of 2007, giving every investor the opportunity to lock in gains and prepare for the ensuing bear market. I’ve already “tooted” my own horn for writing multiple blog posts to lock in gains on this site in late 2007 and early 2008 (see here: Calling Tops and Bottoms: Trend Changes). More articles are listed below. The NH/NL 10-d MA Diff went negative on Tuesday, October 23, 2007, 10 trading days before the NASDAQ’s ultimate top. The index went on to drop more than 40% in one year and 55% to the bottom. Once again, pinpoint accuracy for the NH/NL data.

080109_NAS_top10_07

List of articles on NH/NL Data:

NASDAQ – 2006
Not much to talk about in 2006 – it was an average year with ups and downs but nothing drastic and not too much trending using this indicator. A drop in the markets took place in the summer of ’06 which the NH/NL’s picked up.

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NASDAQ – 2005
This year was similar to 2006 as the NH/NL data was fairly quiet with no extremes in either direction.

080109_NAS_top10_05

NASDAQ – 2004
This year’s NH/NL data started off extremely strong with the second highest NH daily total ever for the NASDAQ. Nine of the top ten NH days came in January as the bull market of 2003 (recovery from bubble burst) was coming to an end. The market reached a top in January and didn’t surpass these levels until the following winter. January of 2004 gave us 6 days with a NH/NL 10-d MA Diff above 300, 5% of the total number of times this has happened to the NASDAQ over the past 30 years (128 total times).

080109_NAS_top10_04

NASDAQ – 2003
The bull market of 2003 gave us some of the strongest overall (average) NH readings of all-time. Wednesday, September 3, 2003 is the 8th highest daily total ever (only 2 NL’s that day for a 99% NH/NL ratio rating). The NH/NL 10-d MA Diff turned positive for the first time on Wednesday, March 26, 2003 while the NH/NL 30-d MA Diff turned positive on Tuesday, April 8, 2003. The up-trend started in March and blasted off in April, once again proving that the NH/NL data is pinpoint accurate – better than any stochastic, oscillator or other market tool available. We can’t argue with history.

080109_NAS_top10_03

In closing, the difference between the past turning points and 2009’s turning point is that the former up-trends quickly showed many consecutive days of more than 100+ NH’s, soon to be 200+ NH’s per day. This year has failed to do that time and time again. Until it does, we’ll wait patiently and continue to watch the data, looking to pounce on the signal!

I hope you enjoyed this historical and educational post. If so, follow me on twitter for my nightly and weekly updates (the NH/NL data is the majority of my focus along with individual growth stocks): Follow Me On Twitter

Don’t forget to subscribe to my free blog feed so you can get my blog updates e-mailed directly to you or listed on your RSS home page.

Filed Under: NH-NL Ratio

Market Breadth

July 28, 2009 by 9 Comments

Market Breadth using the New High New Low ratio and the Cumulative Advance Decline line for the NYSE and NASDAQ.
I’ll let the charts do the talking…

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072809_nh_nl_diff_nas

072809_nas_ad_cum

072809_nyse_ad_cum

072809_nh_nl_diff_30d

[Read more…]

Filed Under: AD Line, General Market, NH-NL Ratio

Home Builders Update

July 25, 2009 by 2 Comments

The builder’s index was up more than 10% this week (July 20-24, 2009), one of the leading groups in the market. The industry is still badly beaten and I do not own shares in any of the companies listed and I don’t plan to buy any time soon. Like I said two years ago in the blog post The Best Home Builder Stock

“The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.”

Give it time, past industries can and usually do take years to recover. The one “prediction” I did make has held true, NVR continues to be the group’s leader. Since my blog post on 8/24/07, NVR is the ONLY stock showing a gain with Hovnanian still down more than 75%. Toll Brothers is a distant second with a 10.77% loss.

072509_nvr_monthly_01

(NVR) NVR Inc.: + 7.74%
(TOL) Toll Brothers Inc.: -10.77%
(MDC) MDC Holdings Inc.: -19.99%
(DHI) DR Horton Inc.: -22.76%
(RYL) Ryland Group Inc.: -30.15%
(PHM) Pulte Homes Inc.: -40.29%
(KBH) KB Home: -43.33%
(LEN) Lennar Corp.: -58.49%
(CTX) Centex Corporation: -67.11%
(BZH) Beazer Homes USA Inc.: -75.27%
(HOV) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.: -75.99%

I guess it helped to work in this industry during the boom for approximately five years but I am sill surprised that some of the big guys haven’t merged or taken over their competitors.

Other than Housing, Biotech and Cyclicals also lead the market this past week (+26% & +10% respectively), these are not the groups of choice for leaders (in my opinion).

072509_nvr_monthly_02

Here’s the original post from August 24, 2007:

The analysis below will show you why I select this stock as the best bet when the builders eventually hit a bottom and start moving higher.

Nathan Rothschild, founder of one of Europe’s most-powerful economic dynasties, uttered one of the most frequently quoted maxims on investment timing in the early 19th Century when he said, “The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets.”

Now, blood is running in the streets for this industry and the homebuilders are getting their rear-ends kicked by Wall Street, the media and anyone else that will jump on the bandwagon.

082407_list_builders.png

So, when will the bottom arrive? Who the hell knows? And if someone tells you they know, just walk away because they are fooling themselves and anyone who listens.

The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.

With that said, I would like to tell you why I feel that NVR Homes (NVR) is the best bet when the bottom does arrive and we start to see some life in this area.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Stocks, Uncategorized

Trading DXO on Twitter

July 11, 2009 by Leave a Comment

I have blogged and twittered about DXO for almost eight months now and nailed both the entry and exit points of the trade. I really nailed the exit (lock in gains) for the twitter community even though I sold earlier. I tweeted the day before and the day after the ETN topped and told everyone that it was a good idea to lock in gains “here”. Take a look back at the tweets and view the chart where I was making calls on DXO. See, twitter is valuable when people use it correctly.

7/11/09: DXO – $3.48, down more than 26% from sell calls. DXO gained more than 74% from my first twitter buy calls

Who says charts don’t work?

071109_dxo_daily

  • 7/6/09: $DXO – 3.90, down 18% since my sell tweets in June. 6/10 @ 4.67 & 6/12 @ $4.76. Always ignore analysts, never ignore charts! 10:04 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 7/6/09: RT 6/12/09 @cperruna $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices…charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 8:29 AM Jul 6th from web
  • 6/12/09: $DXO – $4.76, “talking heads” now debating $250 oil prices but the charts are saying resistance in this area. Lock in gains. 6:38 AM Jun 12th from StockTwits
  • 6/10/09: $DXO – $4.67, up 72% from 4/20 $2.72 twitter coverage. Lock in gains here, resistance above at 200d ma 11:18 PM Jun 10th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.21, talk about blast off above $3.75 breakout. Made nice profit but sold too soon, ignoring my own chart analysis. Entry is gone 12:00 PM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/29/09: $DXO – $4.03, it blasted past the $3.75 triple top breakout point, highlighted in this blog post, see P&F chart http://bit.ly/wTjX 9:07 AM May 29th from StockTwits
  • 5/26/09: $DXO – $3.79, cashing in profits. See April twits on DXO, buy at $2.72. 11:00 PM May 26th from StockTwits
  • 4/20/09: $DXO – $2.72, the gap has filled, down 10% on heavy volume in early trade. 50d ma is at $2.62 (support entry?). 9:38 AM Apr 20th from StockTwits
  • 4/6/09: $DXO – I am looking for the gap to fill down near $2.70; will grab short term shares between $2.50 – $2.70. Moving ave support at $2.55 8:26 PM Apr 6th from StockTwits
  • 3/30/09: $DXO is dropping back to the moving average – watch it for setup 8:59 PM Mar 30th from StockTwits

2/09/09 Blog Post:

Play with fire and you get burned – that’s what they say. I guess it doesn’t appear to be smart to leverage yourself (2x’s) with crude oil futures through an ETN but that’s precisely what I started to do in December. My tool of choice: DXO Oil Double Long ETN

It’s still the trade that intrigues me the most…

I grabbed shares that represented 25% of my typical position size so my risk is greatly limited but I am looking to add shares, only this time with an official buy signal…the current charts are showing that potential with a jump above the moving average or a breakout on the point and figure chart.

A strong move above $3.75 on the point and figure chart will be a major buy signal, especially if it is accompanied with heavy volume.

I’ll be honest; it might be too early (still) as the chart could drag along the bottom of the moving average for months before it decides to pick a direction. However, when it does, I’ll be ready to pounce and add shares to my first position.

Let’s wait and see but don’t let this one off of you watch list.

Filed Under: Crude Oil, ETF, Twitter Updates
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