Where's the Smart Money Going?

What else can I write about after the major indexes dropped 2.93%, 3.08% and 3.20% (DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500)? Volume wasn’t overwhelming for the day but peaked during the hours of the major decline. The first two days of this week have basically wiped out all of the gains from last week while the S&P 500 has now recorded its worst year-to-date start in the index’s history (according to Investor’s Business Daily).

Avon Products, Church and Dwight and Apollo Group were among the stocks making a positive move this week. These are not the stocks you want to lead a strong market (we all know it’s far from strong). Cosmetic, personal care, household and education industries are all related to defensive moves for investors. Run for cover from the former leaders when these stocks rise to the top.

However, the names below may provide for nice safe havens while this market sorts itself out. Their relative strength ratings are holding steady and their declines from recent 52-week highs (some at all-time highs) are rather impressive when compared to the fallen leaders that are now off by as much as 60%. Even long time superstars such as AAPL are off by almost 40%, GOOG by 30% and MDR by 30%.

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Will Institutional Investors park Money here?

  • CPLA – 60.70, a primetime $60-$100 candidate as the stock corrects back towards the 200-d m.a. for the first time ever. A nice moving average (accumulation) buy – not far from all-time highs
  • MA – 206.78, even with the credit crisis, this stock is within a few dollars of its all-time high. Continue to accumulate shares along the long term moving day average. Remember, MasterCard isn’t responsible for default loans (the banks are).
  • POT – 139.86, what was I smoking when I passed up POT on numerous buying opportunities in 2007. I guess I can realistically say that it never pulled back to the 200-d m.a. so it slipped my best risk/reward screens. Still a place for funds to park money
  • FSLR – 178.00, the stock has corrected by 50% since hitting its peak but it is still holding the 200-d m.a. strong, a sign of institutional sponsorship
  • JASO – 50.25, still a nice play as it challenges the 200-d m.a. for the first time since the IPO debut last February. The Olympic hype, solar angle, IPO aspect and increasing earnings should keep this one flying.
  • RIMM – 88.30, the blackberry stock has corrected back to the 200-d m.a. for the first time since 2006. The correction is welcomed so let’s watch to see if it can hold the line. A nice accumulation area if it holds its weight. Keep an eye of the 10/30-week crossover to the downside (a negative signal).

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None of these stocks are recommended buys when the “M” in CANSLIM is weak but do keep an eye on them and accumulate when you find the best risk-to-reward setup and a sign of life in the market.

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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. (YGE)

Stock of the Day
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE)
Monday’s Closing Price: YGE – $32.24

Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor (Solar)
52-week Price: $10.48 – $41.50

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As I said last night, the stock took a hit to end last week on heavy volume which concerns me but corrections are healthy. A pullback to the mid $20’s could be possible based on the prior pullback in October and November. I am looking to add shares based on institutional numbers alone (which are listed below). Approximately 10 million more shares were bought than sold for an estimated “plus” $400 million during the last reporting period.

We had 47 new positions established while 3 positions were sold out (about 15.6-to-1 ratio of buyers to sellers). The float is 25% of the outstanding shares and the market capitalization is more than $4 billion which puts this stock in the bull’s-eye of major institutional investors.

Volume is averaging about 5 million shares traded per day and increasing as each month passes. The ideal entry is somewhere in the mid-$20’s range or slightly above the prior pullback area of $22.50.

This stock has triple digit potential and could be a leader come year’s end. If the opportunity presents itself: trade it and follow the rules! If it fails, sell! It’s that simple.

Sister Stocks (Top Rated Industry by IBD):
FSLR – $236.84
STP – $74.96
SOLF – $31.78
JASO – $68.05

Potential Trade Set-up:

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Highest Rated IPO’s

Today’s post takes a snapshot view of the top ten rated IPO’s to start 2008 according to my fundamental screeners and research. You will be familiar with many of the names as they have been covered on the blog throughout 2007. They still stand at the top of the list of market leaders in this area. The names may be getting old but they still work and working in this business means money.

NOTE: this does not mean they are instant or current buys, it just means that they carry the strongest fundamental ratings that I follow.

What ratings do I use?

  • IPO debut after January 1, 2006
  • Increasing quarterly earnings
  • Increasing yearly earnings
  • Increasing sales and revenue (quarterly and yearly)
  • Top relative strength ratings versus S&P 500
  • Market Capitalization of at least $100 million
  • Current price greater than $10 per share

I’ll make a brief comment about each stock and let you know what I see while analyzing their charts as of Friday’s close. The stocks are listed based on overall fundamental ratings (not technical).

Top Ten Rated IPO’s

  • FSLR – First Solar Inc., $245.58
    The chart looks to be craving a correction, one similar to the pullback in July 2007 which watched the stock give back more than 37% (from $119 to $74). I would only be inclined to add shares near the 50-d and/or 200-d moving average.
  • SNCR – Synchronoss Technologies, Inc., $33.42
    The stock is correcting back to the 200-d m.a. for the second time in as many months. The ideal accumulation area is now. The trade may not work but it’s a game of odds. A green light for a buy!

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  • JASO – JA Solar Holdings, Co., $71.86
    The stock is extended from all important longer term moving averages. Accumulation can take place along the 50-d m.a. (currently near $61). The stock has never tested the 200-d m.a.; a correction to this level would be drastic but telling long term (in years).

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China Sunergy Co. (CSUN)

Stock of the Day
China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (CSUN)
Friday’s Opening Price: CSUN – $16.15

Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductor (Solar)
52-week Price: $4.83 – $19.23

2007 “Stock of the Day” stocks gained an average of 43% (32 total stocks).

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China Sunergy (CSUN) is part of a booming solar industry that includes stocks such as the ones listed below; all head lined by FSLR, a stock that is up more than 700% over the past year or so. This industry is said to grow from about $15 billion to more than $69 billion over the next 5-10 years. Growth like that will flow down to the group leaders such as the ones below. FSLR, STP and YGE are currently the leaders. I am actually looking to get my hands on a few shares of Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE) and will present a case study analysis (stock of the day) next week. The next pullback will be the ideal entry and that looks to be coming over the next several weeks (an entry between $30 and $35 is looking fine). Enough of YGE!

China Sunergy Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of solar cells in China. The company manufactures solar cells from silicon wafers utilizing crystalline silicon solar cell technology to convert sunlight directly into electricity through a process, known as the photovoltaic effect.

The is my first Chinese stock coverage of the new year, extending a trend that was very successful in 2007 with stocks like BIDU, JASO, EDU, MR, PTR and FSLR. I don’t know if CSUN will follow through but the company looks interesting. However, the more I do this analysis tonight (Thursday night), the more I like YGE.

Recent revenue, net income and future earnings all catch my attention and can play major roles in the driving force of the stock’s future price.

Sister Stocks (Top Rated Industry by IBD):
FSLR – $265.87
STP – $88.22
SOLF – $36.95
YGE – $38.02 (another stock I am looking to add)

Potential Trade Set-up:

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Investing in Honey, MEDIHONEY

My last stock purchase of this year and first of next year will be 110% speculative and based on a hunch and nothing more. I had the same feeling last year with Calpine (see below for details).

Why is it speculative?
1. Because it trades under $10 per share (it actually trades under $2 per share).
2. Because it trades over the counter (DSCI.ob)

I said I was done investing in stocks in 2007 but I read an interesting story in the NY Daily News while riding the train home from Manhattan on Thursday night (I took my wife to see Mama Mia on Broadway). Excellent show by the way!

The article highlighted Derma Sciences Inc. (DSCI.ob), a Princeton, NJ company that engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of dermatological related products in the areas of wound care, wound closure and specialty securement devices, and skin care in the United States and internationally.

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The general description didn’t catch my attention but the fact that the FDA green-lighted it’s product Medihoney on Nov. 7 is what got me thinking (this could be bad – lol).

MEDIHONEY™ is the first honey-based product cleared for use by Health Canada and also the first cleared for use by the FDA. These unique dressings contain Active Leptospermum Honey, indigenous to New Zealand (Manuka) and Australia (Jellybush). The dressings can be used in all phases of wound healing and could be considered a key dressing in any wound bed preparation protocol. These qualities can help to take much of the guesswork out of wound management.

As the Daily News states, honey is most likely to catch on among Americans inclined toward alternative health treatments – especially those concerned about overexposure to antibiotics as drug-resistant staph becomes more common.

Honey has been used since ancient Egyptian times to heal wounds and prevent them from becoming infected. It has natural anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties that are especially potent in a strain known as manuka cultivated in Australia and New Zealand.

Israeli doctors reported in the journal Medical Oncology that 64% of cancer patients who ate the honey didn’t develop anemia, and 40% didn’t suffer a low white-blood-cell count.

Some predict that honey will become a part of big business among alternative treatments and I firmly believe this could be true. Therefore, I will be putting my money where my mouth is by buying shares as the market opens tomorrow. It will be a small position but one that I will add to if the stock does what I expect it to do.

Interesting Technical Developments:

  • It was up more than 48% on huge volume over the past week and that CATCHES my attention.
  • It gained 27.66% Friday on volume 4.5 times the 3-month average. I was slow (on vacation) and didn’t buy Friday (could have enjoyed a large portion of that 27% gain)
  • Volume was more than 5 times the weekly average this week and more than 10 times the weekly average three weeks ago. (Started to make its move from $0.65 to $1.20)

This is not a typical buy that I place into my portfolio but I did something very similar last year with Calpine and it worked very well (VERY WELL)!

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