Stock of the Day – UPDATE!
Hanson Natural
Thursday’s Intra-day Price: HANS – $36.86

HANS has been one of the top performers in both my own portfolio and the MSW Index over the past two years. The stock has been screened more than 50 times on the weekly analysis from 2005 to 2006 and it has been mentioned in a couple dozen blog posts since August 2005. It has made countless daily screens since 2005 and if I had to guess, the number would be between 150 and 200 screens. My first blog on HANS came back on July 11, 2005 and was the start of a long research relationship. Below are a few key blog entries for HANS (some images and charts may be missing because the original files were uploaded to blogger servers and I haven’t recovered and replaced all of those files since moving to WordPress).

May 9, 2006
This “Buds” for HANS

March 13, 2006
Can HANS do it Again?

January 13, 2006
Hansen Natural (HANS) Does it Again

July 11, 2005
Buy High and Sell Higher

Next Earnings Date: 3/8/2007
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Other Beverages

Hansen is recovering the 200-day moving averages for the first time in almost six months and has started to pop back on my fundamental and technical screeners. Last night, the stock made a screen titled “Interesting Stocks within 10% of the 200-d Moving Average”.

I am also following a kid sister stock named Jones Soda (JSDA) which will be profiled here on the blog tomorrow.

Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages in the United States and Canada. It offers natural sodas, fruit juices, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies sparkling lemonades and orangeades, noncarbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, seltzer waters, lemonades, juice cocktails, children’s multivitamin juice drinks, and noncarbonated lightly flavored energy waters. The company also provides vitamin and mineral drink mixes in powdered form. It sells its products primarily under the brand names, including Hansen’s’, ‘Blue Sky’, and ‘Junior Juice’ to retail and specialty chains, club stores, mass merchandisers, full service distributors, and health food distributors. Hansen Natural Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Corona, California. – Company profile provided by Yahoo Finance

Amazing Stat: Value of $10,000 invested five years ago: $708,121 today

The stock was only held by 49% (institutional) when I did my first blog case study back in March 2006.

Held by Institutions: 76.75%
Money Market: 215
Mutual Fund: 313
Other: 20

Top Holder: Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
15.6 mil Shares for < 0.01% of Portfolio Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $706.0 billion (almost $1 trillion) Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $3.3B
Outstanding Shares: 90.0mm
Short Ratio: 4.21
Operating Margin: 18.36
Net Income $M: 87.98
ROA (%): 45.16
ROE (%): 60.83
P/E (TTM): 43.11
P/E (Forward): 25.23
Price to Sales Ratio: 7.16
Earnings per Share (EPS) (TTM): 0.89
Book Value per Share: 1.41
PEG Ratio: 1.26
Price to Book Ratio: 17.56

Next Quarter 0.27
Next Year 1.11

Earnings:
Yearly (2006): 1.11E
Yearly (2005): 0.65
Yearly (2004): 0.22
Yearly (2003): 0.07
Yearly (2002): 0.04

Revenue (millions):
Yearly (2005): 348.9
Yearly (2004): 180.3
Yearly (2003): 110.3
Yearly (2002): 92.05

3-Year Sales Rate (growth): 56.65%
3-Year Net Income (growth): 180.91%

Net Income:
2005: 62.8
2004: 20.4
2003: 5.93

Cash Flow:
2005: 63.8
2004: 21.2
2003: 6.58

Does HANS have another run for investors?

Stock of the Day – UPDATE!
Intercontinental Exchange
Thursday’s Close: ICE – $136.54

I have screened ICE multiple times on the blog since October along with its sister stocks (ISE and BOT) and have also screened it every week since September 23, 2006 on the MSW Index. ICE was first screened on the MSW Index at $73.69 with the analysis quoted below.

MSW Index on September 23, 2006:
ICE – 73.69, Added to the MSW Index as a sister stock of ISE as the stock is a new IPO from late 2005 with a new base forming. Earnings are up, the index is making money, new products are launching and traders are everywhere. The long term prospect of this stock looks healthy as does the entire group which gets a B on IBD. Rating: the next buy is a move above $78 on the P&F chart

MSW Index on September 30, 2006:
ICE – 75.07, The stock was up 1.87% for the week after falling hard on Monday. The pivot point is set at $78.02 on the weekly chart and $78 on the point and figure chart. Rating: the buy above the pivot requires volume of at least 2 million shares (daily)

MSW Index on October 7, 2006:
ICE – 85.40, Eight of the last nine days have been higher as the stock gained a whopping 13.76% on big time volume. The stock was up 1.87% for the week after falling hard on Monday. The pivot point set last week at $78.02 on the weekly chart and $78 on the point and figure chart was blasted through with great success . Rating: the buy above the pivot happened with qualifying volume on Wednesday

Since these first few weeks of coverage, the stock has given investors an 85% return and I have continued to analyze the movement as it has made the MSW Index for 15 consecutive weeks. This Saturday will mark the sixteenth straight week of coverage as ICE has become one of the top performers in the MSW Index in a relatively short period of time.

Most recently on the blog, ICE was highlighted in an update post titled, ICE, BOT and ISE Updated,
when it’s price was trading at $108.10 on December 11, 2006.

The original case study was written on October 10, 2006 in a post titled, Exchange Stocks: ISE w/ ICE & BOT, when the stock was trading at $84.92.

Next Earnings Date: 2/22/2007
Sector: Finance
Industry: Financial-Misc Services

IntercontinentalExchange operates the leading electronic global futures and OTC marketplace for trading energy commodity contracts, including crude oil and refined products, natural gas, power and emissions. ICE conducts its markets for futures trading through its regulated subsidiary, ICE Futures, Europe’s leading energy futures and options exchange. ICE also offers a range of risk management and trading support services, including cleared OTC contracts, electronic trade confirmations and energy market data. ICE globally distributed liquid electronic markets, ICE offers a range of risk management tools designed to increase trading efficiency. Electronic trade confirmations through ICE eConfirm ensure that trades are confirmed accurately and in a matter of seconds, whether executed in ICE’s OTC markets or off-exchange. The combination of speed, accessibility, service, and information makes ICE the complete energy marketplace for thousands of market participants across the globe, around the clock.

Held by Institutions: 74.45%
Number of Institutions:
Money Market: 176
Mutual Fund: 190
Other: 8

Top Holder: Sands Capital Management, Inc.
7 mil Shares for 0.04% of Portfolio
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $19.0 billion

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $7.8B
Short Ratio: 1.32
Operating Margin: 57.45
Net Income $M: 109.14
ROA (%): 42.13
ROE (%): 47.00
P/E (TTM): 67.75
P/E (Forward): 38.45
Price to Sales Ratio: 27.56
Earnings per Share (EPS) (TTM): 1.763
Book Value per Share: 6.66
PEG Ratio: 1.70 (this is too high for me)
Price to Book Ratio: 18.73

Next Quarter 0.74
Next Year 2.33

Earnings:
Yearly (2006): E2.33
Yearly (2005): 0.39
Yearly (2004): 0.41
Yearly (2003): 0.37
Yearly (2002): 0.37

2006:
Q1: 0.33
Q2: 0.52
Q3: 0.73
Q4: E 0.74

Revenue (millions):
Yearly (2005): 155.9
Yearly (2004): 108.4
Yearly (2003): 93.70
Yearly (2002): 125.0

2006:
Q1: 73.59
Q2: 73.59
Q3: 94.66
Q4: —

Net Income:
2005: 40.4
2004: 21.9
2003: 13.4

Cash Flow:
2005: 55.5
2004: 38.9

Stock of the Day
Iconix Brand Group
Wednesday’s Close: ICON – 20.81

The ideal entry for this stock is near $17.50 – $18.00 or preferably the 200-day moving average. Volume has been increasing as the stock has been trending higher over the past 18 months. I do expect a consolidation period before the next advance but that is just my opinion. Let the charts tell you what is happening. Many young stocks pause and consolidate in the low $20 range before moving on to make large advances. Not all stocks follow this pattern so the best advice is too monitor the daily and weekly charts and locate support and resistance levels which can help you determine the best entry and exit areas based on probable risk ratios

(From Yahoo) Iconix Brand Group, Inc., a brand management company, engages in owning, licensing, and marketing a portfolio of consumer brands, including Candie’s, Bongo, Badgley Mischka, Joe Boxer, Rampage, Mudd, London Fog, Mossimo, and Ocean Pacific. The company licenses its brands through approximately 115 retail and wholesale licenses worldwide for use in connection with various product categories, including women’s, men’s, and children’s apparel, footwear, and accessories; home furnishings; and beauty and fragrance. The company was founded in 1978. It was formerly known as Candie’s, Inc. and changed its name to Iconix Brand Group, Inc. in 2005. Iconix Brand Group is headquartered in New York, New York.

Next Earnings: 3/7/2007
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Footwear

Inside Ownership: 24.80%
Held by Inst.: 48.08%

Number of Institutions:
Money Market: 106
Mutual Fund: 123
Other: 8

Top Holder: BAMCO Inc.
2.5mil shares for 0.02% of Portfolio
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $16.0 billion

Interesting Institutional Facts:
Value of Shares bought last reporting period: $239,381,225
Value of Shares sold last reporting period: $45,501,443

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Short Ratio: 4.84
Debt $M: 145.17
Operating Margin: 42.76
Net Income $M: 31.13
ROA (%): 9.79
ROE (%): 19.74
Free Cash Flow $M: 21.39
P/E (TTM): 28.44
P/E (Forward): 20.33
Price to Sales Ratio: 15.98
Price to Cash Flow: 49.60
Earnings per Share (TTM) (EPS): 0.74
Book Value per Share: 2.84
PEG Ratio: 1.13
Price to Book Ratio: 3.85
Debt/Equity: 0.76
Cash Flow/Share: 0.38

Earnings:
Yearly (2005): 0.46
Yearly (2004): -0.45
Yearly (2003): -0.17
Yearly (2002): -0.12

2006:
Q1: 0.18
Q2: 0.19
Q3: 0.18
Q4: —

2005:
Q1: 0.02
Q2: 0.08
Q3: 0.14
Q4: 0.19

Revenue (millions):
Yearly (2005): 30.16
Yearly (2004): 131.4
Yearly (2003): 156.8
Yearly (2002): 101.4

2006:
Q1: 13.27
Q2: 18.41
Q3: 22.11
Q4: —

2005:
Q1: 4.30
Q2: 4.29
Q3: 9.21
Q4: 12.36

Net Income:
2005: 15.9
2004: -11.3

Cash:
2005: 12.2
2004: 2.79

The stock has been trending in a nice channel as Yaser Anwar points out in a comment on a previous post titled Stock Predictions for 2007 – Oh NO! ICON was highlighted as one of the stocks I was watching for possible purchase in 2007. It would be nice to hear Howard’s thoughts too as he is a strong believer in buying stocks making new highs or at least near new highs. That is my bread and butter strategy and it has not failed me yet (over the long term).
Disclosure: I do not own Shares in ICON as of 1/11/07

What can I say; the apples keep getting greener! Apple Inc (the new name) unveiled its new iPhone and AppleTV yesterday as the stock was up over 8%. As you all probably know by now, it’s more than just an 8 gigabyte iPod mobile phone with a touch-screen. It looks great; sharp and sleek with internet capabilities that have me salivating. One problem for me though: I don’t use Cingular and I am not changing my carrier because my service has been excellent for five straight years so I’ll stick with my razor and traditional iPod for now.

I have not owned Apple shares in a long time but it was a stock that I owned on multiple occasions in late 2004 and throughout much of 2005. I finally sold my shares in late 2005 and wrote this to all MSW members in early 2006:

Saturday, February 4, 2006 – MSW Index:
APPL – 71.85, Apple is still struggling below the moving average but has not violated the major support level of $70. It will be removed from the MSW Index if it breaks the $70 support. Rating: Hold (sell below $70 – buy if it holds)

Monday, February 6, 2006 – MSW Daily Screen:
Apple Computer (AAPL) has been cut from the MSW Index as it violated the support line on volume 100% larger than the 50-d m.a. with a 6.33% drop. I hope many of you also cut your positions when the red flags started to pile up. If not, I strongly suggest cutting the stock and locking in profits before the stock drops further.

NOTE: the stock dropped 30% over the next five months and took more than eight months to break even but it did. It is now almost 30% higher than the violation date back in early 2006. I would be showing a larger profit if I were a buy-and-hold investor but maybe I would have never bought LVS in April without this Apple cash. I just can’t watch a position go against me no matter the long term results. I don’t buy and hold – maybe some day!

One of my earliest blog posts was about Apple back on January 13, 2005 and I titled the post “Green Apples”.

I followed up that post with one titled: All-Star Stock – Digesting Apple on January 17, 2006.

It’s a great company and a great stock, let’s see where it goes.
Disclosure – I do not own shares in Apple and I don’t plan to buy in the near future.

Stock of the Day
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company acquires and develops healthcare facilities, and leases the facilities to healthcare operating companies. It also makes mortgage loans to healthcare operators secured by their real estate assets. The company’s facilities include rehabilitation hospitals, long-term acute care hospitals, regional and community hospitals, women’s and children’s hospitals, and ambulatory surgery centers, as well as other ancillary facilities.

**Click Chart to Enlarge**

MPW – 15.15
A young lower priced stock that has had a few interesting down days but the overall trend has been higher. Volume has been increasing and major support seems to sit lower at the 200-d m.a. Shorter term entry area and support is near the 50-d m.a. but I would ideally want to enter near the 200-d m.a. after or during a nice consolidation phase.

The year over year earnings and revenue growth is what catches my eye with this young, lower priced stock. Further expansion and acquisitions will fuel future growth and this seems to be the model the company is taking.

The shares in MPW provided a 7.8% dividend yield which is above the 5.8% peer average.

2006 Return: 67%
52-week Range: $15.65 – $9.40

Earnings:
2007:
Estimate: 1.03

2006:
Q1: 0.20
Q2: 0.20
Q3: 0.22
Q4: 0.27 (E)
Yearly: 0.89 (E)

2005:
Q1: 0.14
Q2: 0.17
Q3: 0.14
Q4: 0.16
Yearly: 0.61

Revenue (millions):
2006:
Q1: 12.69
Q2: 13.16
Q3: 15.12
Q4: —
Yearly: —

2005:
Q1: 6.48
Q2: 7.24
Q3: 8.21
Q4: 9.62
Yearly: 31.55

Institutional Ownership: 66%
Market Cap (B): $0.615

Net Income:
2005: 19.6
2004: 22.4

Cash:
2005: 59.1
2004: 42.7

Number of Institutions:
Money Market: 88
Mutual Fund: 133
All Others: 3

Top Holder: Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc.
2.2 mil shares or $33.5 million, 0.1% of portfolio
Total Equity Value of Portfolio: $20.5 billion

It’s a small company with a small portfolio but with growth, increased leverage and additional acquisitions, the stock has room to grow. My ideal entry is closer to the 200-d m.a. or after the first consolidation phase from new 52-week highs (as long as it holds support).