Stock Screen for Wednesday 6-18-08

Some solid and some not-so-solid stocks made the screens tonight (technically speaking) but the main theme of Tuesday seemed to be the resistance near new high territory. My two examples, (CSIQ) and (PPO), were both higher on strong volume but they couldn’t close in new high territory or the top end of their daily ranges.

This information tells me that the market is currently facing some resistance or profit taking near new high levels. However, these same stocks facing some resistance now may be ready to take-off once the weak holders are shaken out of their positions. Ideally, that is exactly the type of trade I am looking to enter as I love stocks making new highs with no resistance in sight.

Stocks making multiple screens tonight:
AIMC, BLT, CF, CRK, CSIQ, FSIN, HK, HP, LL, MCF, NOA, OMGI, PPO, PQ, RSG, TITN, TRA, VAR, XCO and XIDE

CSIQ and PPO made four screens and TITN made three.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ), 47.00, was up 10.69% today for a two day total of 20.51% on above average volume. Volume was 171% larger than the average on Tuesday and is already above average for the week. The stock is now within 3% of a new all-time high. I do have a major problem with the intraday action which had the stock close in the lower end of the daily range (lower half of the daily candlestick). This type of action suggests some selling pressure near $48 or the buyers from last month looking to break even. A move to new highs later this week is bullish.

Polypore International (PPO), 25.38, reached a new all-time high intraday with a 4.49% on volume 187% larger than the 50-day average. As the case with CSIQ, the stock didn’t close at the top of its range which concerns me slightly. Overall, the young stock looks solid as it is trending higher with a new double top breakout on the point and figure chart. Relative strength is rising as the company lives in an interesting industry group.

Stock Screen for Tuesday 6-17-08

Today’s screens give us an interesting mix of stocks that were higher on above average volume. I was specifically looking for stocks that were up at least 1% and had volume of at least 50% larger than the average. Several names, such as AAP, ABFS, ACM, EEP, ERES, FDS, GDI, IPHS, NDSN, OMI, PQ, TEVA, TITN, TOT and VIT, showed up on multiple screens. I will admit that not every one of these stocks look appealing after viewing the charts.

TITN, Titan Machinery (made three screens) was up almost 11% on volume 509% larger than the average closing at a new all-time high. The stock is now up 30% since the original analysis on April 21, 2008 at $23.97 (the ideal trade setup was noted at $21.00 which the stock did drop down to). A buy on a move back above $21 would give you a current gain of 47%.

Vanceinfo Technologies (VIT) is a stock that I noticed for the first time today as it was up 3.37% on volume 122% larger than average. VIT made the IPO screen and interesting stocks within 15% of a new high screen. The Chinese stock interests me as it has more than doubled in price over the past three months and is now flirting with a new all-time high.

This is exactly how I dissect my screens each night – I look for stocks that are up more than 1% with volume at least 50% larger than the average. Stocks making multiple screens are viewed first but every chart is analyzed.

China Architectural Engineering (CAEI)

Stock of the Day
China Architectural Engineering, Inc.
Wednesday’s Closing Price: CAEI – $10.75

Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: General Contractor
52-week Price: $4.75 – $27.25

June 6, 2008 Business Wire:

“China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (CAE) (AMEX:RCH), a leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of high-end building envelope systems, today announced that the Company will ring the opening bell at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City’s Times Square on Thursday, June 12, 2008 at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The Company will commence trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “CAEI” on June 10, 2008.”

Although the company has “China” in its name, 45% of its revenue comes from Australia, Dubai, Qatar, the U.S. and Europe. Business week noted that growth should last well beyond the Olympic games this year because of robust orders in foreign markets.

The company’s order backlog is said to be at $100 million or 1/5th of its current market cap, a nice card to have up its sleeve in today’s world market.

The gap-up on the chart in May on huge volume concerns me when attempting to establish a solid risk/ reward trade strategy. I would like to see the gap fill prior to entering a position but I do see support along the 50-d m.a. or even $8 per share. I am going to set-up the “ideal trade” using the current moving average so we can cover a potential pull-back to the gap-up area noted on the charts.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $7.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 12% or $6.16 ($6.00 area)
Number of Shares: 1,190
Position Size is $8,334
Risk is $0.84
Target is $13 for a 7-to-1 risk/reward ratio

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $547M
Outstanding Shares: 51.1M
EPS Growth (MRQ): 178%
EPS Growth (TTM): 135%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 76%
Revenue Growth (TTM): 50%

Earnings per Share (EPS):
$0.50 Next year, +39%; High estimate $0.64, +77%
$0.36 current year, +71%
$0.21 last year, +50%
$0.14 previous year

Stock Bias Test Results

I ran a post on Friday titled, Stock Bias Test, which has become one of the more popular pages on my site in only a few days. My site doesn’t generate a large number of comments per blog post, maybe 2 to 4 per post on average, but this topic got more than 30 people to respond (a huge success in my “comments world”). I guess I do a poor job in sparking conversation based on what I write.

Anyway, everyone seemed to like the exercise of analyzing the charts without a ticker symbol or frame of time.

I asked a few questions:

  • Which stock would you buy below based on the nameless & dateless charts? (listed 1,2,3,4)
  • How would you rank them in order of technical characteristics?
  • Would you avoid buying of any of the stocks below based on price and volume?
  • Would you short any of the stocks below?

Overall, many of you struck out and did not get the analysis right but I do have to say a that a few of you did a wonderful job.

The best response in the comments that I could find clearly comes from Alex who runs a blog on his google pages.
He nailed every chart (I wonder if he figured them out) as a few of you did.

#1 is the strongest buy. The last candle on #1 sets the high of the chart, therefore it’s moving into uncharted terrritory with no overhead sellers. Also, the last dip down to the 40-period line was on low and decreasing volume, thus few sellers there. Then it spiked off the 40-period MA with strong volume. Then it continued the uptrend for 5 candles.
#3 would be my second strongest buy for similar reasons, but I’d like to see what the next few candles do.
#2 & #4 I would leave alone because of the heavy selling volume on the last dips. But I wouldn’t short them because they are still above the 40-day MA.

I had to hide Aurelien’s answers for chart #3 as he guessed it: AAPL.

Steven Mac may have summed up the approach to the analysis the best by saying:

While the exercise is based upon price & volume alone or techincal aspects, for the record I wouldn’t move into a position unless I can see at least:

1) Risk-to-Reward.
2) RS Strength
3) Industry Group/Sister Stock Information
4) Fundamentals on Ownership
5) Overall Market Direction Factor

Overall – it was a great exercise and a wonderful success. I plan to do more of these in the future (possibly bi-weekly if everyone stays interested).

The original snapshots of the charts I uploaded on Friday are highlighted in blue (on the charts below). As you can see, #1 (BIDU) and #3 (AAPL) were super successful and #2 (MS) and #4 (BSC) broke down.

Proper risk/ reward setups and sell rules would have saved you from losing large amounts of money in MS and BSC so don’t worry if you got them wrong. Worry if you got it wrong and then avoided selling a clear loser.

Watchlist and Stock Portfolio Update

Let’s start with the hottest stocks that have been on my watchlist over recent weeks:
CLR – Continental Resources Inc.,

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “CLR – Continental Resources, $46.54, +43%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    “CLR – 38.38, yes, this stock is extended but I like it near $30 or the next base”

  • Highest Rated IPO’s

    “CLR – Continental Resources Inc., $26.57
    This is the first appearance of the stock on this blog as it has had a nice run from $15 to $28 in four months. The stock is extended but trending higher. An ideal entry is above the 50-d m.a. Set up a favorable risk-to-reward trade before entering”

SD – Sandridge Energy Inc.

  • Top Rated Stocks

    “SD – 55.00, Sandridge Energy Inc., made another new all-time high this week and it continues to trend higher on increasing volume. A couple late day reversals to end the week sent up a red flag (minor at this point in time).”

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “SD – Sandridge Energy Inc., $47.01, +30%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    “SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)”

GTLS – Chart Industries Inc.

  • Top Rated Stocks

    “GTLS – 41.89, Chart Industries Inc. is trading near new all-time high territory as the trend is higher. A move above $43 will trigger a triple top breakout on the point and figure chart (a positive sign if it comes on heavy volume and without a reversal).”

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “GTLS – Chart Industries, $41.05, +45%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    GTLS – 35.48, poor ending to the week but a buy near the 200-d m.a. is fine

  • Chris Perruna Stocks in Review 2007

    “Listed are the thirty two covered stocks in alphabetical order:
    BIDU, BKC, BX, CSH, DVR, EDU, FCSX, FSLR, GRMN, GROW, GTLS, HMIN, HWCC, ICON, JASO, JSDA, LDK, LOOP, MA, MFB, MPW, MR, OMTR, PRXI, PTR, ROCM, SHLD, SLW, SMOD, SNCR, SSRX, VMW”

  • Market Leaders!

    “(GTLS) Chart Industries Inc. – Fresh IPO Ideas $32.45”

  • Leading CP Stocks

    7. GTLS: 37%, $23.05 to $31.54, 6/13/07

  • Make Millions Trading IPOs

    “GTLS has gained almost 35% while institutional sponsorship has increased 55%. The most attractive number of the group is the jump in shares held for GTLS which increased by 102%. Institutions bought 16 million more shares than they were selling for an 8-to-1 ratio. The value of shares bought closed just shy of $500 million while the value of shares sold was only $65 million. The stock looks good long term.”

  • Chart Industries (GTLS)

    “GTLS was Featured in these posts in June 2007:
    6/13/07: Fresh IPO Ideas, GTLS – Chart Industries Inc. – $23.05
    6/20/07: Young Guns Taking Off, GTLS – $24.73″

TITN – Titan Machinery Inc.

IPI – Intrepid Potash, Inc.

  • Intrepid Potash, Inc (IPI)

    “Can Intrepid Potash (IPI) follow in the footsteps of Potash Corp. Saskatch, Inc. (POT)? I will not hesitate to jump on a trend if IPI starts to run higher because crowds are persistent and I don’t like to fight them.”

Current Portfolio Holdings – Growth:

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