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Stocks Building Bases

April 28, 2008 by Chris 1 Comment

We start the week by studying stocks that are currently building bases. I decided to specifically narrow the list down to stocks that are building cup shaped bases. Each stock presented today contains respectable fundamental characteristics such as strong earnings and revenue. Many, if not all of the stocks below have been covered within the past 6-12 months on the blog. A few of the stocks listed are building their first major bases since their spectacular up-trends in 2007.

Each stock has gained support along the 200-d (40-week) moving average while building their current base. The market has been moving higher but many pundits are calling this positive move a “head-fake” or slight pause in the main trend which is down (in their opinion). I couldn’t tell you if they are correct but buying stocks while they make new highs during a suspect market can be costly if it reverses. I prefer to buy stocks making new highs during an obvious up-trend. In any event, let’s go over a few technical rules for stocks building cup or saucer shaped bases.

On the weekly charts:

Look for more up-weeks than down-weeks while the stock is building the base.
Make sure that the volume is higher during the up-weeks than the down weeks.
Volume should be below average or lighter during the down-weeks than they are during up-weeks.
Stocks tend to make 3-5 bases during a long run over a few years. Be careful with stocks making late stage bases (4th base or later); they are more vulnerable to failure as most of the “smart money” (institutions) have rotated their cash into new stocks.
Sell if a stock breaks out from a base on above average volume but suddenly reverses below the pivot point (ideal entry) that same day or a few days later.
Beware of stocks trying to make news highs on above average volume but fail to end the day in the upper half of its daily range. This may be a reversal and a possible red flag.

Read an article I posted last January on How to Calculate a Stock’s Pivot Point:

How to Look for a Cup with Handle (chart #1):

Look for relatively quiet volume as the stock builds the left side of the cup. Volume at the base of the cup should be slightly higher than the left side as support is coming into the stock. The right side of the base should have above average volume with more up-days than down days. The handle will be the last part of the formation and should slope slightly downward with lower volume than the right side of the base. The pivot point will be slightly higher than the highest point of the right side of the base. All breakouts should occur on volume 100% greater than average daily volume although IBD does say that breakouts above 50% do qualify.

How to Look for a Saucer with Handle (chart #2):

Look for relatively quiet volume as the stock builds the left side of the saucer. A saucer looks similar to the cup-with-handle but the dip from the high to the low is smaller and usually longer in duration. Volume at the base of the saucer should be slightly higher than the left side as support is coming into the stock. At this point, the base may almost qualify as a flat base. The right side of the base should have above average volume with more up-days than down days but this does not have to be as prominent as the cup-with-handle. The handle will be the last part of the formation and should slope slightly downward with lower volume than the right side of the base. The pivot point will be slightly higher than the highest point of the right side of the base. All breakouts should occur on volume 100% greater than average daily volume.

All stocks and charts are listed in alphabetical order:

Portfolio Snapshot: Growth

April 25, 2008 by Chris 12 Comments

I am going to disclose the holdings in my growth portfolio because I have been receiving questions as to what I am currently investing in (during the so-called bear environment). Readers ask what I actually own and want to know why I present stocks that I do not own.

So, to answer some of these questions and requests:

I will disclose my growth portfolio which consists of stocks that I anticipate will provide a rate of return greater than the general market averages and 90% of all listed stocks. I have owned shares in a couple of these stocks for a lengthy period of time. However, I will note that the size of the positions in MA, JASO and EDU have changed just as the market environment has changed. I have both added-to and sold-out of shares over the past 6-12 months.
This blog is treated as an educational and equity research site. I am providing a portion of my own research in public while trying to help others based on the knowledge I have accumulated in the market. I research and study hundreds of stocks every week but I only buy a handful over the course of a year.

Anyway, the six stocks below are all currently positions in an account I consider my growth portfolio (stocks can be held from a few weeks to a year). This account buys young innovative growth stocks that have the potential to provide returns greater than the vast majority of the equity market. It’s a long portfolio. I have other portfolios that buy options, ETF’s, value plays and short from time to time but this portfolio most closely resembles my research and writing style on chrisperruna.com.

If you are wondering about this year’s losing trades (closed trades), most of them were sold prior to leaving for Mexico in late March (and I had several across the portfolios).

I am disclosing the positions because I am reevaluating the holdings while looking for new potential buys. Visa is the latest purchase and is up over 16% since accumulating my first batch of shares. I would like to buy additional shares in Visa once I determine how to reallocate the funds within the portfolio. Some new faces are popping up on my research scans and may be worthy of consideration versus the longer holdings and rebound plays.

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Filed Under: Portfolio, Stocks

Intrepid Potash, Inc (IPI)

April 24, 2008 by Chris 5 Comments

Can Intrepid Potash (IPI) follow in the footsteps of Potash Corp. Saskatch, Inc. (POT)?

If you don’t know by now, POT is up 552% over the past two years, 230% over the past 12 months and 43% year to date; all while the S&P 500 is down 2.25% year-to-date, an amazing accomplishment in this market environment (see chart below).

Intrepid Potash Inc, a producer of crop nutrients, raised $960 million with an initial public offering that priced shares above expectations in the $27 to $29 range. The IPO price came in at $32, $3 above the top of the range expected by underwriters. The original estimate was for 24 million shares to be priced between $24 and $26 per share (30 million shares were offered at $32).

Intrepid Mining, the parent company of Intrepid Potash claims to be the largest potash producer in the U.S. I missed the HUGE up-trend in POT but IPI may give this industry one last run before the trend is over. Markets are not efficient so the greed of crowds may take this IPO higher due to the recent performance of POT. Risks will be associated as a quick sell-off could be a huge possibility if things don’t go the way investors expect.

As you can see from the charts, IPI priced at $32 per share but jumped as much as 50% during the trading debut. The stock reached a high of $53.50 today but closed down 2.6% at $49.09.

Tate from Self Investors notes:

“As far as the fundamentals, they look solid but nothing extraordinary. My take on this is that this IPO comes at a time when the agriculture stocks appear to be near a major top with perhaps one more last climax run left in them. Does this IPO signal the top? Just maybe. Like all IPO’s I’ll let it trade for at least two weeks and only enter on a breakout from a bullish pattern.”

I tend to agree with his analysis for the most part. I will not hesitate to jump on a trend if IPI starts to run higher because crowds are persistent and I don’t like to fight them.

Filed Under: 2008 Stock of Day, IPO, Stocks

Billion Dollar Salary

April 22, 2008 by Chris 5 Comments

Fresh off of listening to When Genius Failed and Liar’s Poker, those stories of quick and great fortunes from the 1980’s and 1990’s now seem like pocket change when compared to the hedge fund managers of today. Compensations have been dipping into the billion dollar range for the past few years but the latest round of wealth has never been so astonishing.

To put this into perspective, the top hedge fund manger last year earned 61,157 times more money than the average American family ($3.7 billion versus $60,500). He averaged $422,374 per hour, every hour for 365 consecutive days (more than $7,000 per minute).

Take a look, I have always been intrigued by these “masters of the universe” compensation packages: 2006: Hedge Funds – Richest of the Rich

Wall Street Winners Get Billion-Dollar Paydays
By JENNY ANDERSON, Published: April 16, 2008

Hedge fund managers, those masters of a secretive, sometimes volatile financial universe, are making money on a scale that once seemed unimaginable, even in Wall Street’s rarefied realms.

The richest hedge fund managers keep getting richer — fast. To make it into the top 25 of Alpha’s list, the industry standard for hedge fund pay, a manager needed to earn at least $360 million last year, more than 18 times the amount in 2002. The median American family, by contrast, earned $60,500 last year.

Institutional Investor
By Stephen Taub, Posted April 15, 2008

Five of the managers on this year’s list each made more in 2007 than the $1.2 billion that JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to pay for the almost failed 85-year-old Bear Stearns Cos.

When we published our inaugural list, in 2002, Soros led the way with $700 million, a showing that this year would have put him at No. 9. Back then it took $30 million to crack the top 25; this year, $360 million.

The grand total earned by the top 25 in our 2003 ranking, almost $2.8 billion, was less than what any of the top three managers made this year and less than one fifth of what the top ten made altogether ($16.1 billion).

Though we doubled the size of our list from 25 to 50 this year, longtime New York–based star managers Mark Kingdon of Kingdon Capital Management and Raj Rajaratnam of Galleon Group both miss the cut, despite each making about $200 million. This year’s minimum: $210 million.

Bringing home more than a billion in 2007: Five hedge fund managers rake it in
By Peter Cohan, Posted April 18, 2008

John Paulson (Paulson & Co.) — 2007 earnings: $3.7 billion. Beginning in 2005, Paulson made huge bets on the decline in value of securities backed by subprime mortgages

George Soros (Soros Fund Management) — 2007 earnings: $2.9 billion. Soros’ $17 billion flagship Quantum Endowment fund racked up a 31.7% return in 2007, its best annual showing since the high-tech implosion at the start of this decade. Soros’ $2.9 billion payday comes almost entirely from his personal stake in the fund (which he no longer manages). I don’t know how he made that 31.7% return.

James Simons (Renaissance Technology) — 2007 earnings: $2.8 billion. Simons, a mathematician and former Defense Department code breaker, uses complex computer models to trade.

Philip Falcone (Harbinger Capital Partners) — 2007 earnings: $1.7 billion. Like Paulson, Falcone placed a winning bet against the mortgage market. He pulled in returns of 117% after fees in 2007.

Kenneth Griffin (Citadel Investment Corp.) — 2007 earnings: $1.5 billion. Griffin manages $20 billion and is a big information technology innovator that trades derivatives. equity securities. and listed options and buys distressed assets at a discount. For example, In late 2007 a Citadel-led group put $2.55 billion into struggling E*Trade Financial Corp., (NASDAQ: ETFC), the U.S.’s fourth-largest discount brokerage.

Filed Under: Media, Misc., Wall Street

Titan Machinery (TITN)

April 21, 2008 by Chris 13 Comments

Stock of the Day
Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)
Friday’s Closing Price: TITN – $23.97

Sector: Retail
Industry: Retail/ Wholesale Building Products
52-week Price: $9.18 – $24.09

February 25, 2008: TITN – $19.70

Three stocks are catching my eye while making multiple screens over the past couple of weeks. MTL is up over 13% in less than two weeks since I highlighted it in a post titled Basic Materials (Oil) Stocks Making New Highs

Trading momentum is paying-off in the current market environment. Swing trading breakouts making new highs on volume at least 100% larger than the average is king. It’s working so pay attention and be smart while putting on trades. MTL is no longer a buy since it has become extended but TITN and RIO may be setting up for new 52-week highs.

April 14, 2008: TITN – $22.39

TITN – 22.39, solid young stock with an ideal entry point near $20 (looking good)

Fourth quarter earnings are scheduled for Monday, April 28, 2008. I would not be a buyer until after earnings are released (this event will shape my view on the stock and a potential position). Last quarter’s net income rose to $2.7 million, or 36 cents a share, from $0.8 million, or 13 cents a share, a year ago (sales increased 67% to $132 million).

My ideal accumulation area is between $19 and $22 with the best entry coming along the 50-day moving average, which seems to be providing support. The weekly chart is showing clear accumulation by institutional investors as most up-weeks are happening on larger volume while down-weeks are happening on lighter volume.

I will definitely be interested in a position since this stock has been making my nightly screens and scans since February. I have learned that the best stocks are the ones that continually make these scans (that is fact since I started investing with this method in 2001).

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $21.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $18.90
Number of Shares: 476
Position Size is $10,000
Risk is $2.10
Target is unknown (too little information)

Institutional Analysis:
Held By Institutions: 42.75%
Total Held by Institutions: 62
Money Market: 43
Mutual Fund: 18
Other: 1

New Positions: 60
Positions Sold: 0
Shares Held: 7.43M
Shares Held Previous Period: 0.13M

Shares Bought: 7.3M
Shares Sold: 0
Value of Shares Bought: $134.1M
Value of Shares Sold: $0

Top Institutional holders; Shares Held:
Systematic Financial Management, L.P.; 711,600
Trafelet Capital Management L.P.; 528,500
Heartland Value Fund; 350,000
Heartland Advisors Inc.; 350,000
Wasatch Advisors Inc.; 325,000

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $320.3M
Outstanding Shares: 13.4M
Float: 6.0M
P/E (TTM): 46.02x
PEG Ratio: 2.09x
EPS Growth (MRQ): 229.23%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 66.99%
3-Yr Earnings Rate: 54%
3-Yr Sales Rate: 34%

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Filed Under: 2008 Stock of Day, IPO, Stocks